Building resilience: climate solutions for a changing world

Posted on 9 May, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

In an era defined by environmental uncertainty, the need to fortify our communities against the impacts of climate change has never been more pressing. Climate resilience – a term often heard in discussions surrounding climate action – refers to humanity’s capacity to adapt and withstand the adverse effects of climate change while maintaining essential functions and minimizing disruption to livelihoods and ecosystems.

But what exactly are climate resilience and climate solutions?

Understanding Climate Resilience: Climate resilience encompasses a spectrum of strategies aimed at softening the risks posed by climate change. It involves building robust infrastructure, implementing sustainable land-use practices, fostering community preparedness, and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Essentially, it’s about future-proofing societies and environments against the challenges of a changing climate.

Defining Climate Solutions: Climate solutions refer to the various interventions, technologies, and policies designed to address climate change and enhance resilience. These solutions span a wide range of sectors, from renewable energy and sustainable agriculture to disaster risk reduction and climate-smart infrastructure. By adopting and scaling up these solutions, society can partially adapt to climate impacts, and build a more sustainable future.

Case Studies: Met Office’s Climate Resilience Initiatives:

  1. Climate Services for Developing Nations: The Met Office, in collaboration with international partners, provides climate services to developing nations to enhance their resilience to climate change. These services include tailored climate information, early warning systems for extreme weather events, and capacity-building initiatives to empower local communities to manage climate risks effectively. By equipping vulnerable regions with the tools and knowledge needed to anticipate and respond to climate impacts, the Met Office is helping build resilience on a global scale.

  2. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Environments: With rapid urbanisation and population growth, cities face unique challenges in the face of climate change. The Met Office is involved in research and development projects aimed at enhancing climate resilience in urban environments. This includes modelling future climate scenarios, assessing climate risks to infrastructure and communities, and developing adaptation strategies to bolster resilience. By integrating climate considerations into urban planning and infrastructure development, cities can better withstand the impacts of extreme weather events and changing climate patterns.

  3. Enhancing Agricultural Resilience: Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with shifting weather patterns, extreme temperatures, and fluctuations in rainfall posing significant challenges to food security and livelihoods. The Met Office collaborates with agricultural stakeholders to consider climate-smart farming practices, improve crop forecasting capabilities, and provide climate information to farmers. By promoting sustainable agriculture and supporting adaptive measures, the Met Office is helping farmers build resilience to climate variability and ensure food security for future generations.

In conclusion, ‘resilience’ is not just a buzzword; it’s critical for safeguarding our planet and securing a sustainable future for all. By embracing climate solutions and investing in resilience-building initiatives, we can navigate the challenges of a changing climate and create a more resilient, equitable, and prosperous world for generations to come.

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Met Office and Deaf Academy link up for training 

Posted on 7 May, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

How can we make our resources more accessible to the deaf community? That is the question Met Office staff have been discussing with members of the Deaf Academy.  

Through online and in-person workshops, we have been working with students to develop a greater understanding of their needs and preferences when it comes to information about weather and climate. 

Mark Stocks, the Academy’s partnership and community manager said: “Sometimes people don’t communicate with a deaf person, as they are afraid of getting that communication wrong. So through these sessions, we aim to reassure people and give them the tools they need to take away that fear.” 

The workshop included the students delivering a British Sign Language (BSL) workshop to participants, which included a section on popular meteorological terms. 

Deaf Academy student Hugh, 24, said it was “important to teach deaf awareness to hearing people in order to help them understand deaf culture”, and Timothy, 19, said the community needed to “feel included in a hearing world” because “it helps ensure the two communities are more integrated.” 

The students also talked about how they receive their news and weather, as well as looking at various Met Office content and discussing how they could be improved to make them even more accessible.  

Susan Ward-Rice, Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Specialist Partner at the Met Office said: “We are continuously striving to be as inclusive as possible with everyone we engage with, whether that be through our recruitment or the content we produce.  

“I found the awareness sessions engaging, educational and informative. It’s been really useful to show some of our communications content to the students and find out how we can make our resources even more accessible and inclusive to members of the D/deaf community.” 

Engaging with and understanding the diversity of our people and those we serve is a key priority of the Met Office, and we look forward to working with the Deaf Academy more in the future. 

Deaf Awareness Facts 

There are 12 million adults in the UK who are deaf, have hearing loss or tinnitus.    

There is no consensus on the total number of BSL users or deaf BSL users in the UK. The 2021 Census reports 22,000 people use BSL as their main language in England and Wales. 

The British Deaf Association estimate that the total number of people in the UK who use BSL (not necessarily as their main language) is estimated to be 151,000. 

Sometimes, you might see the word deaf as Deaf or D/deaf. The capitalisation of Deaf is often used by people who see their deafness as more than just a disability, but also their cultural identity. Generally, sign language will be their first language. 

People who have experienced hearing loss throughout life are less likely to share this sense of cultural identity and may describe themselves as ‘deafened’ or ‘hard of hearing’, with the latter term being more common among older people. 

People who have retained a considerable degree of hearing might refer to themselves as ‘partially deaf’ or may refer to their level of hearing as mild to moderate. 

9/10 of respondents to the RNID Subtitle It Report (2023) with hearing loss and who were deaf, usually or always use subtitles when watching TV. 

People who are deaf or have hearing loss have individual communications, and you should ask someone how best you can communicate with them. RNID have produced some communication tips. 

If you are organising events, make your event deaf aware. There are several different ways to make events more inclusive. 

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate 

Posted on 2 May, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

For 20 years, an array of instruments strung across the North Atlantic has been monitoring the strength of one of the largest and most important systems of ocean currents in the world.  

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, moves heat northwards in the Atlantic and means that Europe is milder than it would otherwise be. Potential climate change-induced collapse of the system has been suggested, but what have scientists discovered with two decades of monitoring?   

The ocean plays a key role in our climate system by taking up heat from the atmosphere and moving it around the globe. The AMOC system of currents moves water northwards in the upper ocean from the tropics towards the northern North Atlantic, where the water loses its heat to the atmosphere and becomes colder and sinks. Deep waters return southwards and travel around the globe, returning to the surface through winds in the Southern Ocean and through mixing. 

Image showing a map of the world and ocean circulations indicated by red arrows for warm surface water and blue arrows for cold deep water.
Ocean circulations with blue arrows indicating cold deep water and red arrows indicating warm surface water.

Weakening of the AMOC 

Laura Jackson is a Met Office scientist who has studied North Atlantic ocean currents for many years. She said: “The AMOC strength can vary from one decade to the next, which affects weather patterns in the UK and Europe. A warming climate makes it harder for the northern waters to cool and sink, and so it is considered very likely that the AMOC will weaken with human-induced climate change. This weakening would reduce the heat moved northwards, so Europe would experience less warming than if the AMOC didn’t weaken. This could reduce the impact of global warming in this region but may also cause other changes in our weather patterns such as more winter storms.”  

AMOC collapse 

She continued: “One unlikely possibility is that the AMOC might reach a ‘tipping point’ causing it to rapidly weaken. In that case the cooling from AMOC weakening would be stronger than the background warming, and we would experience colder temperatures. Although this is unlikely to happen, it could have devastating impacts, causing cooling in the North Atlantic, large changes in precipitation, shifts in regional weather patterns and large impacts on ecosystems and human activities. UK and European impacts are explored in the latest Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Ocean Circulation report. Changes in temperature, wind and rainfall patterns as well as increases in storm surges would have wide implications for the UK such as impacts on agriculture, marine industries and renewable energy production.  

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 (sixth assessment) report judged that, although a weakening of the AMOC by 2100 is very likely, there is medium confidence that a collapse will not occur. However, given the potential impacts, this it is still an important area of research. 

Observations 

She added: “The international community has been observing the AMOC at 26oN for the last 20 years at the RAPID array. These observations have been very useful for testing how well our climate models are representing the AMOC and for understanding how the AMOC affects the climate. We have also seen how the AMOC varies on many different timescales – in particular it weakened over the first decade and then stabilised, or possibly strengthened. Changes from one decade to another are expected from natural climate variability, so it is hard to detect a long-term weakening from climate change. Hence, we need longer a time series. Other ways of monitoring the AMOC (such as recent observations further north at the OSNAP array) are also useful additions.”  

Ongoing research 

Laura concluded: “There is ongoing research in the Met Office to improve our understanding of how the AMOC might change in the future and what impacts that would have on our weather and society.” Scientists are also investigating AMOC tipping points through the EU project ClimTip. 

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A wet and dull April

Posted on 1 May, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

It will be no surprise for many to hear that April 2024 has been a wet month. In what has felt like an unsettled spring so far, the UK has had its sixth wettest April since the series began in 1836, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.  

Sunshine has been in short supply, with the UK provisionally recording just 79% of its long-term average for the month.

Wetter than average

The UK experienced 55% more rainfall than an average April, with 111.4mm falling across the month, making it the sixth wettest April in the series and the wettest April since 2012.

Many areas recorded more than their long-term average monthly rainfall, with Scotland experiencing its fourth wettest April in a series which started in 1836. It saw 148.9mm of rainfall across the month – more than 60% of its average and the wettest April since 1947.

Some places in Scotland saw more than double their average rainfall for the month. Edinburgh in particular saw very large rainfall totals, receiving 239% of its average April rainfall, which is its second wettest on record, falling only behind totals in 2000. East and West Lothian, Aberdeen, Clackmannan, Berwickshire and Cumbria, among others, also recorded more than double their average rainfall in the month. A rain-gauge at Honister Pass in the English Lake District recorded more than 400mm of rain.

Met Office Scientist Emily Carlisle said: “April has been a continuation of the past few months: often wet, windy and unsettled. April showers were present from the beginning of the month, with frontal systems bringing persistent precipitation across the UK. Although a high-pressure system moved over the UK on the 20th bringing some drier weather, by the end of the month, low pressure was back in charge, bringing with it more rain.”

Temperatures around average

April was a month of two halves when it comes to temperatures. The month started off warm, particularly along the southeast coast of England. Writtle in Essex recorded 21.8°C, making it the hottest day of 2024 so far in the UK.

Temperatures then dropped, remaining slightly below average for most of the last two weeks of April. This balanced out the warmer temperatures at the start of the month and resulted in a provisional average mean temperature of 8.3°C for the UK, only 0.4°C higher above the 1991-2020 long-term average.

Cloudy conditions often resulted in overnight temperatures being held up, with the average minimum temperature being above average (+0.8°C).

A dull month

Along with being a wet month, April has also been a dull month. The UK provisionally recorded 79% of the long-term average sunshine duration, with 122.9 hours.

One named storm

April saw Storm Kathleen arrive on the 6th, bringing heavy rain to Scotland, Wales, parts of Northern Ireland and the west coast of England. Kathleen also brought strong winds across the UK, with gales along coasts, particularly in the north and west of the UK. Kathleen was the eleventh named storm of the 2023/24 season. This is only the second time that the Met Office has reached the letter K since they began naming storms in 2015.

Spring so far…

Meteorological spring (March to May) so far has been wet. Both England and Wales have already seen more than their long-term average rainfall for the entirety of the season, while the UK has seen 96%. At this point in the season, we’d expect to see 66% of average.

Provisional April 2024Mean temp (°C)Sunshine (hours)Rainfall (mm)
Actual Diff from avg (°C)Actual% of avgActual% of avg
UK 8.30.4  122.979 111.4155
England 9.30.6  127.07885.5152
Wales 8.50.4 113.372135.8154
Scotland 6.60.0 119.284148.9160
N Ireland 8.30.3 118.480104.6141
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Antarctic sea ice in 2023

Posted on 17 April, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

Each year, from June-October, polar climate scientists from the Met Office produce a series of monthly sea ice briefings for the government and the general public. These briefings describe the state of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, compare how these relate to historic patterns, and, where possible, assess causes of unusual behaviour.

Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the surface of the ocean and is found when temperatures are cold enough for sea water to freeze. The extent of sea ice is a key climate indicator, because sea ice cover insulates the ocean in winter and reflects sunlight in summer, as well as providing a habitat for a range of species. 

A view of Antarctica showing patches of sea ice, ice bergs and the Antarctic continent's mountains in the distance.

Here, Senior Scientist Alex West talks about the 2023 Antarctic sea ice minimum and its interaction with the ocean and atmosphere.

Lowest sea ice extent on record

Antarctic average sea ice extent for 2023 was the lowest on record. During the ice growth season from June-October, ice extent was exceptionally low for the time of year, reaching over 1 million square km below previous record lows and setting a new record low maximum extent by a very large margin. For much of the rest of the year, the ice was at record or near-record low levels, recording a second successive record low minimum in February (Figure 1).

The annual cycle of Antarctic sea ice build up and loss with individual years highlighted. 2023 was a record low year for Antarctic sea ice extent.

Figure 1. Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023 (bold black line) with other recent years indicated, as well as earlier years with notably low sea ice extent. The 1981-2010 average is also shown, with the shaded region indicating 2 standard deviation intervals.

The very low extent from June-October was partly caused by enhanced warm northerly winds, associated with persistent areas of high and low pressure (Ionita, 2024). Early in the ice growth season, from May-July, these were concentrated near the Antarctic Peninsula, in the Weddell and Bellingshausen Sea regions; later in the growth season, from August-October, the strongest winds were to be found further west, in the Ross Sea. The position of the lowest sea ice conditions changed similarly.

However, it is likely that the ocean also played a part. The low extent of 2023 continues a pattern of very high variability in Antarctic sea ice since 2007, with first high and then low sea ice conditions persisting for long periods of time, in a way unlikely to be caused by known atmospheric changes (Hobbs et al., 2024). A key moment in this period of high variability was a large reduction that occurred in 2016, and this is thought to be linked to changes in the upper ocean caused by stronger westerly winds mixing warmer waters below towards the surface (Earys et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2022). Further mixing of warm waters cannot be ruled out as an additional cause of the very low extent of 2023.

The precise contribution of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming to the record low sea ice of 2023 is not yet known. While climate models predict that Antarctic sea ice extent will decrease in response to anthropogenic warming, variability in the past 15 years has been considerable, with very high extent from 2012-2014 followed by the current period of very low extent (Figure 2). Further extreme variability in either direction remains possible in the years ahead.

The monthly extent of Antarctic sea ice from 1979 compared with the average from 1981-2010. This view makes it easier to see long-term changes in sea ice.

Figure 2. Antarctic sea ice monthly anomalies over the period of satellite observations. For each month, the 1981-2010 average ice extent for that month is subtracted. This largely removes the seasonal cycle so that subtler long-term changes can be viewed more easily.

During April we are exploring the topic of the ocean and climate. Follow the #GetClimateReady hashtag on X (formerly Twitter) to learn more throughout the month.

References

Eayrs, C., X. Li, M.N. Raphael and D.M. Holland (2021) Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change. Nat. Geosci., 14, 460–464. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3

Hobbs, W., and Coauthors (2024): Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice. J. Climate, 37, 2263–2275, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0479.1

Ionita M (2024) Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023. Front. Earth Sci. 12:1333706, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1333706

Zhang, L., T.L. Delworth, X. Yang, F. Zeng, F. Lu, Y. Morioka and M. Bushuk (2022) The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021. Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 302. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00624-1

Antarctica map showing Antarctic Peninsula

A map of Antarctica showing the Antarctic Peninsula separated by the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas. Map: Adobe Stock.

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NEMO: a numerical ocean model

Posted on 12 April, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

A numerical ocean model is a computer programme representing the equations of motion (momentum, conservation of mass and thermodynamics) for the ocean. The model stores each of the physical properties of the ocean (temperatures, salinities and currents) on a three-dimensional grid, writes Ana Aguiar.

Ocean models store physical  properties such as salinity, temperature and currents on a three-dimensional grid. Picture: Adobe Stock

Smaller ocean features can be resolved by using a finer grid with more points, but this requires more computational power. The model evolves these physical properties forward in time using its equations of motion. Models of sea ice and biogeochemistry work using similar principles.

Why do we need a numerical ocean model?

We need these models to predict the state of the ocean within short and long timescales for a variety of purposes, ranging from support to operations at sea (for example, search and rescue) to understanding the role of the ocean in the Earth’s climate system. As the ocean sits beneath the atmosphere, sea-surface temperature patterns have widespread impact on the weather over land. Largely because two-thirds of the Earth is covered by ocean and the heat capacity of water considerably outweighs that of the air, the ocean acts as a regulator of the atmosphere.

In polar regions temperatures become cold enough for seawater to freeze and sea ice forms on the surface of the ocean. Sea ice plays an important role in the climate system because it insulates the ocean from the colder atmosphere in winter and, being whiter than the ocean, reflects sunlight in the summer.

The NEMO modelling framework includes a sea-ice model component, known as SI³ (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative). The sea-ice component is run along with the ocean component in a similar manner but using a different set of equations. To understand and prepare for climate change we need to account for the role of the ocean and sea ice.

How is the NEMO model developed?

Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is a state-of-the-art ocean modelling framework. NEMO is developed by a European consortium with the objective of ensuring long-term reliability and sustainability of the code. In other words, the task of maintaining and developing such a complex computer programme requires a well-coordinated team effort, involves tens of developers and hundreds of users.

In the UK there are two member organisations: the Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre (NOC). Met Office Scientific Manager in Ocean Modelling, Ana Aguiar explains: “We work in partnership through the Joint Marine Modelling Programme, contributing to the development of NEMO. The code is publicly available for use in research and commercial applications. It is imperative to reach as many users as possible, to ensure the code gets tested and pushed to the limits of its usability. User requirements then prompt further advances.”

NEMO benefits from continual work to improve its performance (scientific and computational efficiency), to incorporate new scientific and process understanding, and to exploit the increase in supercomputer resources. When the developments are sufficiently mature and can provide significant scientific or technical improvements, a new NEMO version is released. Along with scientific upgrades (which tend to be increasingly computationally demanding), we must deliver code optimisation to make the best use of the available computing resources.
This video presents how NEMO is used by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service.

What’s next?

The next NEMO release (expected to be rolled out this summer) will deliver significant improvements to model performance allowing it to run considerably faster. In the long term, among other things, we are also working towards porting the NEMO code to Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to ensure continuity of the code in future mainstream High Performance Computing architectures

During April we are exploring the topic of the ocean and climate. Follow the #GetClimateReady hashtag on X (formerly Twitter) to learn more throughout the month.

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One ocean, one climate 

Posted on 3 April, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

Our planet is covered in large part by water. Historically, the ocean was referred to as four oceans (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic) or five if you included the Southern Ocean (around Antarctica).  

For the ocean science community, it is now accepted there is only one global ocean- and many basins with individual names – says Christine Pequignet, a Met Office senior ocean forecasting scientist.  

There are scientific reasons for this, and important societal consequences. Of course, if you swim off the coast of Hawaii after a lifetime of swimming in the water around Scotland, it will be difficult to recognise that you are in the same ocean. Yet, every ocean basin is connected to at least two others.  

The shape of the ocean basins results from the evolution of one single supercontinent, Pangaea, which was surrounded by one super-ocean called Panthalassa. Like then, the forces that act upon the ocean today know no boundaries, for example the wind, gravity, the earth’s rotation. The resulting circulation of water moves energy, organisms and matter – including pollution – around the globe.  

The most common map projections, used to represent the earth on a flat surface, typically focus on land and divide the ocean. However, there are other map projections which instead focus on the ocean, such as the one here to display sea surface temperature, which highlight the inter-connection of the five ocean basins.

A unique and ocean-centric visualisation of the globe surface underlining the one ocean concept.

Map of Sea Surface Temperature plotted on a projection that emphasises the continuous nature of the world ocean (source: Philip Brohan Met Office)

The images we choose, the words we use, all contribute to the perception we have of the world and how we feel about it and how we act.

Talking about a global ocean reinforces the need to approach ocean issues in a universal manner. Knowing that actions on the ocean have both local and global impacts connects us to other communities and reinforces the critical need to protect the marine environment everywhere.  

The ocean is a critical element of the climate system. At a time when the climate is changing at a rapid rate, it is even more important to draw attention to the uniqueness of the ocean and the importance of its role in influencing our planet’s climate. Noone questions the singular use of climate, despite the large range of climates observed around the globe and the variability in impacts that climate change will generate. Climate and ocean processes and issues are global. Along with one climate, there is one ocean.  

During April we will be exploring the topic of the ocean and climate. Follow the #GetClimateReady hashtag on X (formerly Twitter) to learn more throughout the month.

Discover more about the one ocean concept.

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Spring starts with a mild and wet March 

Posted on 2 April, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

Meteorological spring kicked off with a mild and wet month of weather for the UK, with southern areas particularly wet compared to average.  

Although it’s felt like it hasn’t stopped raining for many, no national records have been broken and March 2024 will go down as a wet and dull month, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.  

Wetter than average 

The UK experienced 27% more rainfall than an average March, with much of this concentrated in the south. A number of counties saw at least double the amount of rainfall they would expect for the month, including Cornwall, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Wiltshire and Worcestershire. 

Although Scotland experienced widespread rain throughout the month, it was drier than average, especially in northern and western areas.  

A map of the UK showing average rainfall amounts for March 2024. It shows it was very wet in the south and driest in Scotland.

A mild month 

The month started cooler than average, with some snow falling early on. But this cool weather was soon replaced with milder conditions for much of the rest of the month, with only brief cooler interludes at times.   

Overall, the provisional mean temperature for the UK was 6.7°C, 1.0°C above average. Southern England was much milder than areas further north, with a mean temperature of 8.2°C (1.4°C above average). Scotland was the coolest region, recording an average temperature of 5.0°C – just 0.6°C above average.  

England provisionally recorded the seventh-warmest March on record in a series from 1884, with an average temperature of 7.8°C.  

Met Office Scientist Emily Carlisle said: “Many will remember how wet March has been, with a succession of fronts and the influence of low pressure seemingly never too far away from the UK. Coming off the back of a wet winter and what has been a wet start to the year, many areas have very saturated ground, which has increased the sensitivity to rainfall events in recent weeks.”  

A map of the UK showing average mean temperatures for March 2024. It shows it was very warm in the South East and the majority of the country, but cooler in Scotland.

Sunshine in short supply 

Many of us have been looking forward to some welcome spring sunshine however, as you’d expect with the frequent rain, sunshine amounts have been in disappointingly short supply during March.  

The UK recorded just 95.2 hours of sunshine for the month (87% of the long-term average). Scotland was the only region to have seen more than its average, with 4% extra sunshine hours than the average.  

A map of the UK showing average sunshine hours for March 2024. It shows it was very dull throughout the county, with Northern Scotland seeing the most sunshine.
Provisional March 2024Mean temp (°C)Sunshine (hours)Rainfall (mm)
Actual Diff from avg (°C)Actual% of avgActual% of avg
UK 6.71.0  95.287 107.8127
England 7.81.4  93.48094.3162
Wales 7.01.1 86.879158.2153
Scotland 5.00.6 101.4104112.790
N Ireland 6.60.6 88.988129.2149

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What’s the pollen outlook this year?

Posted on 22 March, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

The Met Office launches this year’s Pollen Forecast today (Friday 22 March) which will run until mid-September.

One in five people in the UK suffer from hay fever, meaning spring can be the start of watering eyes, runny noses and keeping a keen eye on the pollen forecast, which is now available and provides a look at the pollen amounts and types in the air for the next five days.

This February was the warmest on record for England and Wales and winter too has followed this wet and warm pattern. This has an influence on the pollen season ahead.

Yolanda Clewlow is the Met Office’s Relationships Manager for Health and Air Quality, and the UK Pollen Forecast Manager. She said: “We’re constantly monitoring what’s in the atmosphere and what might be coming in terms of pollen in the air. We look at a very broad picture for the pollen outlook, including the weather in the previous year when pollen is formed on some plants to make a judgement on how heavy a season might be for pollen release. Rain, wind, temperature and sunshine all affect how much pollen will be produced and how much it will be dispersed.”

The Met Office works with the University of Worcester to monitor pollen levels. There are many factors at play when predicting levels, with much depending on how much pollen has formed on the plants and the weather at the time of release. Most people are allergic to grass pollen, which is generally released around mid-May to July.

Yolanda continued: “In terms of birch pollen, we are seeing the first grains in the atmosphere in the most southerly and easterly counties but overall, there’s currently generally low levels for tree pollen due to changeable conditions. We expect the season to be of mild to average severity depending on in-season weather.

“Grass pollen could start early, with some pollen airborne from late April. Average severity is most likely, but this will largely depend on the weather in April and early May. Warm sunshine and some rain is needed for good grass growth and pollen production. Dry conditions would inhibit growth.”

There are millions of hay fever sufferers across the UK. The Met Office pollen forecasts provide vital information to help reduce the impact pollen has on their health. 

Emma Rubach is the Head of Health Advice at Asthma + Lung UK. She said: “High pollen levels can be dangerous for people with lung conditions like asthma or COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), triggering symptoms such as breathlessness, coughing or wheezing. and could lead to hospitalisation or a potentially life-threatening asthma attack.

“To protect themselves, we would advise people with hay fever to use their preventer inhaler every day as prescribed, if they have one, and always have their reliever inhaler with them, in case symptoms do arise.  

“If you’re allergic to pollen, using steroid nasal spray every day can also help, together with non-drowsy antihistamine tablets to help reduce the allergic reaction. It is also a good idea to check pollen and air pollution forecasts in their local area, so they can avoid going outdoors as much as possible on high pollen days.”    

The three types of pollen

The pollen season generally has three main pollen type phases:

  • Tree pollen – late March to mid-May
  • Grass pollen – mid-May to July (most people are allergic to grass pollen)
  • Weed pollen – end of June to September

“The first thing to do is to make sure you understand the type of pollen you’re allergic to and monitor the forecast,” said Yolanda.  

“That way, you know when the very high days of pollen are coming and you can take precautions to try and avoid the pollen. It’s not possible to avoid it altogether though so for some, it’s about taking that preventative medication and planning your day to try and avoid being out in the pollen at the peak times.”

Pets can also be affected by hay fever and in severe cases, vets can often prescribe medication to help furry friends through the summer.

Advice on dealing with hay fever is available as part of WeatherReady with the Met Office.

Pollen levels and climate change

With global temperatures increasing, the pollen season in the UK isn’t immune to the effects of a changing climate. Climate models suggest an increasing likelihood of warmer, wetter winters and hotter drier summers, which will influence the release of pollen into the atmosphere.

A study conducted by the University of Worcester looked at pollen trends in the UK over the last 26 years to better understand the relationship between these trends and meteorological factors. It examined a range of UK pollen sites, with a focus on the key pollen types: grass, birch and oak. 

Dr Beverley Adams-Groom, Senior Pollen Forecaster at the University of Worcester and lead author of the study, said: “Birch tree pollen is showing a trend for increasing severity, particularly in the Midlands region, but grass pollen is not showing an increase over time. Seasons for all pollen types are tending to start earlier and earlier but there is no evidence that season duration is changing. Where changes are occurring, these are largely related to the effects of global warming, with similar patterns seen from research in nearby countries.”

Get pollen alerts directly to your phone on the Met Office app, or visit the pollen forecast on the Met Office website.

 

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Met Office scientists protecting our forests from pests and pathogens

Posted on 21 March, 2024 by Met Office Press Office

Today is the United Nations International Day of Forests, and in this blog post we explore the importance of this work.

The Climate and Plant Biosecurity Climate Service, funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), is a collaboration between the Met Office’s Vegetation-Climate Interactions team, Defra’s Plant Health Risk and Horizon Scanning team, the University of Exeter, Fera Science, the University of Warwick, Forest Research and The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew.

Oak processionary moth caterpillars. This species is a non-native pest of woodlands. Picture: Adobe Stock.

Since 2006 the non-native and invasive Oak Processionary Moth has been spreading across England and Wales. Picture: Adobe Stock

The aim of the service is to provide analyses, tools and guidance to help manage the climate-related risks to UK plants, particularly trees and forests, from plant pests and pathogens.

Pest and pathogen outbreaks

Pests and pathogens present serious risks to our trees and forest habitats as well as the ecosystem services they provide. The number of new pest and pathogen outbreaks affecting trees has increased rapidly in recent years (see table, Source: Forestry Commission).

Year (since 1971)             New tree pest or pathogen outbreak

  • 1971      Dutch elm disease
  • 1983      Great spruce bark beetle
  • 1984      Phytophthora alni
  • 1995      Gypsy moth
  • 1997      Dothistroma needle blight
  • 2002      Phytophthora ramorum
  • 2002      Horse chestnut leaf miner
  • 2003      Phytophthora kernoviae
  • 2005      Bleeding canker of horse chestnut
  • 2006      Oak processionary moth
  • 2006      Phytophthora pseudosyringae
  • 2007      Pine tree lappet moth
  • 2010      Acute oak decline
  • 2010      Phytophthora lateralis
  • 2012      Ash dieback
  • 2012      Asian longhorn beetle
  • 2012      Sweet chestnut blight
  • 2012      Phytophthora austrocedri
  • 2014      Phytophthora sikiyouensis
  • 2014      Sirococcus tsugae
  • 2015      Oriental chestnut gall wasp
  • 2017      Elm zigzag sawfly
  • 2018      Eight toothed spruce bark beetle
  • 2021      Phytophthora pluvialis

Climate (variability and change) influences pests and pathogens in many ways, including i) the timing of life cycle events (such as emergence from egg to caterpillar), ii) the spatial distribution and spread, and iii) the introduction and establishment of non-native species.

Tools to help manage UK plant biosecurity

The UK Climate-Pest Risk Web Tool is one of the tools that has been developed by Met Office scientists Neil Kaye and Deborah Hemming (Vegetation-Climate Interactions team) in collaboration with biosecurity and forestry experts at Defra, Forest Research, Fera Science and the University of Warwick. It integrates ecological knowledge and models of known temperature thresholds for different pests/pathogens, with up-to-date climate observation datasets from the Met Office National Climate Information Centre.

Deborah Hemming, Scientific Manager of the Vegetation-Climate Interactions team at the Met Office, who leads this climate service, notes: “When tree pests and diseases become established, they can wreak havoc on our woodlands. Commercial forestry can be affected hugely, but they also affect the landscapes of our islands which many people love and cherish. In the 1970s, Dutch Elm Disease killed most of the UK’s stately elm trees with those plants remaining being small stands in isolated sections of hedgerow. Similarly, Ash Dieback since 2012 has decimated ash trees with similar devastating effect.

“When trees die, especially native broadleaf trees, there are impacts on landscape and wildlife. And in times of climate change there is also a reduction in the availability of carbon stocks because trees provide a hugely valuable ecosystem service by drawing down atmospheric carbon and locking it away. By joining forces with experts in plant biosecurity at Defra, ecological modelling at University of Exeter, forestry at Forest Research and ecological systems at Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, we are able to provide scientifically robust and useful research, tools and services to help protect UK trees and forests now and into the future.”

The tool enables users to easily estimate the timings and locations of pest outbreaks across the UK, and inform actions to assess, survey, monitor and eradicate plant pests, helping to enhance UK plant biosecurity.

Simon Toomer, Curator of Living Collections at Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, says: “As we develop strategies and plans to adapt and prepare our tree and shrub collections for changing climatic conditions, one of the most complex and least understood threats is that from pests and diseases. This research is going to help us understand how changes in general climate variables translate into changes in the specific conditions experienced by pest species, and how we may adapt our management accordingly.”

Healthy ash trees form an important part of the UK's tree canopy. Isolated trees are also a feature of hedgerows. Picture: Adobe Stock

Healthy ash trees form an important part of the UK’s tree canopy. Isolated trees are also a feature of hedgerows. Picture: Adobe Stock

Improving monitoring and modelling of microclimates

Pests and pathogens respond to microclimates within the habitats where they live. To improve the estimates of pest/pathogen risks, ecological modellers at the University of Exeter have developed mechanistic microclimate models to estimate temperature and humidity within relevant habitat locations e.g., under tree canopies, inside tree trunks or buried at various depths within the soil. In these habitats, microclimates can vary by 40-50°C and be significantly different to conditions observed at weather stations.

Ilya Maclean, Professor of Global Change Biology at the University of Exeter, says: “It is important to understand the climate as pests and pathogens experience it. This can be very different from the conditions measured by a weather station. My team is developing models that allow us to do this and the data we are collecting as part of this project will be invaluable in helping us improve our models”.

Daegan Inward, Senior Scientist at Forest Research, explains further: “We know that beetle outbreaks are often associated with sun-warmed stems, and understanding the under-bark microclimate is important to help predict the risk of insect establishment and population growth in Britain.”

Climate change and globalisation

To validate the microclimate models, in February 2024 the Met Office, the University of Exeter, Forest Research and Kew Gardens began a campaign of microclimate monitoring at five sites in different forest habitats across southern England (Cornwall, Dartmoor, Alice Holt, Kew Gardens and Wakehurst). The team installed a series of sensors to monitor temperature within the woodlands and inside tree trunks. The data collected will help improve the understanding and modelling of variations in the pest/pathogen microclimates, and therefore the estimates of biosecurity risks.

Defra Chief Plant Health Officer Nicola Spence said: “Climate change and globalisation are increasing the number and diversity of pests and pathogens we are exposed to, resulting in an ever-growing number of threats. This collaborative effort to develop climate modelling tools and improve our understanding of pest or pathogen climate interactions, will allow us to better plan for and improve our ongoing surveillance and monitoring. This work is crucial to adapt to a changing climate and better understand how the health and resilience of our trees could be at risk.”

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