Official blog of the Met Office news team

There is lots of speculation about the potential for up-and-coming heatwaves, extreme temperatures or drought for this summer. The Met Office Contingency Planners 3-Month Outlook is often cited as a source for some of this conjecture, but can it really be used to tell us what the daily weather has in store for the coming months? 

What does our three-month outlook say? 

There’s always a lot of interest in predictions for the summer – how hot will it be, how much rain will we get? Long-range predictions, including the Contingency Planners 3 Month Outlook, are at the cutting edge of meteorological science but are unlike weather forecasts for specific days. We have to acknowledge that the chaotic nature of our atmosphere means it is not possible to predict the weather on any particular day months ahead. With many variables there are unavoidable limitations to what we can predict, particularly during the summer months when the influence of global weather drivers on the UK is small so confidence in Outlooks at this time of year is lower than, say the winter.  

Long range forecasts assess global weather patterns and their potential to influence the type of weather in the UK over the course of a season, dry, windy, hot etc. Factors in the global climate system act to make some outcomes more likely than others, because of this we can make a prediction, showing a spread of possible outcomes. We present the likelihood of each outcome using a range or percentages. As a result, this type of forecast assesses likelihood and risk, but does not predict specific weather, such as the dates of a potential heatwave or exactly how high temperatures may reach on any given day. 

The Outlook gives the percentage chances of the temperature, rainfall amounts and wind speeds varying from their 3 monthly averages for the UK as a whole. The current Outlook for June, July and August gives a 45% chance of the season will be hot with a 50% chance of it will be near average. Whilst it gives a 65% chance of near average rainfall with a 15% chance of a dry season. 

But what do these figures mean for our weather? 

The elevated risk of a warmer than average summer this year, is consistent with wider global warming trends and the UK’s warming climate, after all, four of the five warmest summers on record for England have occurred since 2003. Nevertheless, looking at the figures you can see a near average summer is also still a possibility.   

Whilst there are no strong signals for rainfall this summer, whatever the outcome, figures for the UK as a whole can hide big regional variations. Therefore, even if rainfall turns out to be near average for the country overall, we could still see some localised impacts from heavy rainfall or regional droughts. 

What is behind the summer predications? 

Even though the influence of global weather drivers on the UK is small during our summer months, there are a few considerations relevant to the current Outlook.  

Firstly, long-range prediction centres around the world are in good agreement in their forecast for northern Europe this summer with signals for high pressure to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south. At this time of year, high pressure is usually associated with warmer-than-average weather.  

With the waters warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean there is consensus an El Niño will develop later this year. However, while fundamentally important globally, the impacts of El Niño on UK summer conditions are modest. 

And finally, there is the global warming trend. The effects of human-induced climate change are already being felt on UK’s summer with temperatures in excess of 40C recorded for the first-time last summer and an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events over recent decades. Meanwhile, our Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, issued with the WMO,  has stated there is a 98% chance that one of next five years will be the warmest year on record for the globe. Like in every year the chance of temperatures reaching 40C in the UK is very low and our forecasts suggest this is still the case for the coming summer. However, with an increased chance of above average temperatures we are likely to see some very hot days this summer with heatwaves and hot weather impacts are possible. 

Why do we produce this type of Outlook? 

The science of long-range forecasting is at the cutting edge of meteorology and the Met Office is leading the way in this area. We continue to demonstrate improvements in this type of forecast, identify sources of predictability and build better prediction systems.  

The 3-Month Outlook is produced for planners in government and business who make risk-based decisions. These users are aware of the complexities of this type of Outlook and include those factors in their decision-making process. It gives a spread of outcomes based on the more probable prevailing weather patterns giving the percentage risk of each occurring and must be used in the right context. The uncertainties are often quite large but enable businesses and governments to take weather related decisions, make choices with more confidence, and help the economy and population make better decisions to stay safe and thrive. 

If you are looking for a clue on what the weather will be like in the coming days or weeks you should check out our 30-day outlook (scroll to the bottom of the homepage) which outlines the general type of weather we’re likely to see in the UK over the next month or our 7 day forecast which gives a daily detailed location based forecast and perhaps take any speculation in the media with a good pinch of salt. 

As all eyes look towards meteorological summer, many people are already speculating about what weather it might bring; long hot summer days or even stormy weather. 

Whatever the weather, we at the Met Office and our partners have come together to provide the very best advice and guidance to help everyone to make the most of whatever the summer weather brings and to stay safe and well.  

Whether you’re planning a big day out or have spotted an ominous forecast, check out our WeatherReady page for advice on preparing for this summer’s weather.  

Get out and about

Being WeatherReady isn’t just about cold winter weather. WeatherReady advice includes helpful tips and information on getting out and about safely and making the most of the weather.  

This includes advice from expert partners like RNLI and HM Coastguard on beach safety, tips on camping from The Scouts Association and even advice on surviving a festival, courtesy of our very own meteorologist, presenter and festival lover Clare Nasir.

Health and wellbeing

Last summer’s record-breaking heat for the UK was a stark reminder of the risks of extreme heat. Widespread disruption was reported in what was England’s joint hottest summer on record, with travel, infrastructure and healthcare impacted by the heat.  

Leading health organisations across the UK have contributed to WeatherReady’s advice page on hot weather and its impacts. There are plenty of practical steps everyone can take to stay cool during hot weather. This can be especially important for those who are more vulnerable to heat, such as babies, young children and older people.  

Find practical advice on UV and sunburn, as well as a wealth of information about hay fever, the pollen season and how you can be prepared for summer conditions.

Home and garden

While many hope for a mild summer with plenty of sunshine, heavy rain can be a factor in summer and it can have a more pronounced impact when it falls on dry land.  

WeatherReady includes step-by-step instructions on how to protect a property from flooding, as well as helpful information on how to recover after a flood.  

Warm summer weather often carries with it the risk of thunder and lightning, which presents an additional hazard. Knowing what to do when thunder and lightning occurs can help you to stay safe.  

Are you WeatherReady? 

For more information, practical advice and guidance, visit our WeatherReady website. You can start by finding out 10 things you can do now to prepare for summer.  

April was a predominantly unsettled month, with little in the way of consistent warmth, especially over England, and hence the advance of spring seemed to be rather slow, though it was more settled for a time around mid-month, this being followed by a return to rather chilly conditions.

Although, temperatures fluctuated somewhat throughout April the average is close to or a little below average for the month overall, with Northern Ireland warmest relative to average. A milder spell mid-month was balanced by rather colder conditions towards the end of the month.

Sunshine was close to normal expectations overall for April, but with the north and east generally brighter relative to average than the south and west.

Rainfall was very close to average overall, but with regional variations, most parts of Scotland being drier than average, but southern and eastern England being rather wet. For example, Kent saw 185% of its average rainfall while West Lothian saw just 59%. At least one weather station in Kent (East Malling) reported more than twice its normal rainfall.

Storm Noa on 12 April 2023 was the second named storm of the 2022/2023 storm season. It was named by Meteo-France and brought widespread gusts of over 58 mph around the coastline of England and Wales. It was an unusually severe storm for the time of year and the most significant April wind storm to affect England and Wales since April 2013. Some weather stations recorded new April wind gust records. For example Isle of Portland (74 mph), St Bee’s Head (79 mph) and Shap in Cumbria (67 mph).

In this guest post, Overhead Line Engineer at SSEN Transmission, Benjamin Brint, talks about the work of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) in future-proofing the Scottish power network.  

Getting to Net Zero 

If the UK is to achieve its Net Zero targets, a large amount of renewable generation must be added to the existing generation mix. Much of the proposed generation, onshore and offshore, is situated in the North of Scotland due to the abundance of suitable locations of high wind and wave yield. This increased generation will create a new need for the transmission of large bulk power flows from the proposed generating capacity to the major demand locations in the south of the country.  

The challenge 

This generation portfolio is fundamentally mismatched to the existing UK transmission network, which is designed to transfer power from a small number of large power plants in relatively near proximity to existing load centres (areas of major demand). In northern Scotland, the transmission network is particularly sparse and acts as a pseudo distribution system managing power flows between small regional load centres, a single bulk gas-fired power station, and a geographically-dispersed hydroelectric capacity. 

Currently it is proposed that an estimated additional capacity of 27 GW will need to be connected to the network by 2030 and 50GW by 2050. This increase in capacity will require significant build of new overhead lines, cables and substations as detailed in the Holistic Network Design published by National Grid ESO. The timescale to complete this build is overtly challenging when compared to the time required to physically reconfigure the existing network, as recognized by the UK Government in their Powering Up Britain Energy Security Plan. In the north of Scotland, this reconfiguration and upgrading of the transmission network rests with Scottish and Southern Energy Networks (SSEN). 

Science as a solution 

To meet this technical challenge, SSEN Transmission is actively pursuing innovative approaches to the design of these future networks. By the application of meteorological science to all aspects of the network design and subsequent asset management, wide-reaching challenges to existing industry practice and standards have been made. 

For example, by using Met Office data and scientific consultancy, SSEN Transmission now have a more realistic and optimised approach (compared to the industry standard) to designing infrastructure to withstand risk from icing. This means they are able to target areas that pose the greatest risk with reinforced infrastructure rather than over-designing the network as a whole. This targeted approach reduces both build costs and associated carbon emissions of construction. 

The electricity that can be transmitted through an overhead line conductor is currently governed by static line ratings. These ratings place a conservative limit on the power flow to ensure the temperature increase induced by the flow of electricity does not cause excessive sag of the conductor, thus avoiding potential danger to objects and vehicles beneath them. In order to design for a worst-case scenario static line rating, conservative weather data is used to calculate the environmental cooling of the conductor, effectively under-utilising the asset for the majority of the time. A dynamic line rating takes real-time and forecasted weather inputs to calculate the environmental cooling experienced by the conductor. By moving to this approach, a reduction in transmission constraint can be expected, which is particularly relevant in periods of high winds when wind energy production is at its highest output. 

These science tools and engineering adaptations will avoid over-engineering the grid of tomorrow, allowing for more time and cost-effective delivery of the future grid the UK desperately needs to reach its Net Zero targets. This will be at the same time as ensuring the infrastructure is capable of withstanding the current and future environmental conditions it will have to endure over its life span. 

This blog post relates to our April theme of climate change and infrastructure. Learn more on this topic by following #GetClimateReady on Twitter.

Today, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released the State of the Global Climate report 2022. In an exclusive interview with the Met Office Omar Baddour – the WMO’s head of Climate Monitoring and Policy Services – discussed the latest findings. 

The report focuses on key climate indicators, including greenhouse gases, temperatures, sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification, sea ice and glaciers. On the Met Office’s Weather Snap podcast Omar shared some of the report’s findings.  

It is fair to say that the State of the Global Climate report for last year – with its litany of negative indicators – makes unpleasant reading for all those concerned about the impacts of climate change. 

Omar said: “I would say that 2022 was the busiest year in terms of extreme weather events, with member states reporting around 500 extreme weather and climate events worldwide.” The duration of these events varies from the brief ferocity of tropical cyclone Ian which wrought havoc on the southern United State and Cuba to the long-term drought in East Africa which Omar regards as the worst in four decades. Of course, both of these events and hundreds of others too brought considerable humanitarian impacts with the tragedy of loss of life and damage to local communities and infrastructure. 

With searing temperatures affecting many nations from the UK to India and Pakistan, 2022 will be remembered by many as the year of the heatwave. The increasing intensity of heatwave is no surprise to Omar. He said: “The heat waves are the most evident sign of climate change because they are directly associated with increasing temperature; and increasing temperature is directly associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentration; which in turn are associated with human anthropogenic factors. 

“This is why, for instance, we are reaching records which have been never recorded in the past, like in Europe, but also in many parts of the world in the East Asia, in the Middle East, in North America and so forth.  

“So, with the current trend of carbon-dioxide emissions and greenhouse gas concentration increasing, we can only say that the frequency, unfortunately will still be going on in the future if nothing is done to accelerate the mitigation efforts.” 

The WMO press release emphasises the following key indicators: 

• Drought, floods and heatwaves affect large parts of the world and the costs are rising
• Global mean temperatures for the past eight years have been the highest on record
• Sea levels and ocean heat content are at record levels
• Antarctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record
• Europe shatters records for glacier melt

For the interview with Omar Baddour listen to the latest Weather Snap podcast.