Storm Hannah or no Storm Hannah?

That is the question.

And the answer from the Met Office is no, not this weekend.  Which left many people (including us) feeling quite confused as we read headlines like “Hell storm Hannah” and “Britain to be battered by Storm Hannah” in some national and regional news.

This weekend was wet and windy and the Met Office issued several wind, rain and snow warnings for many parts of the country.  These warnings highlighted the impacts the weather would bring, such as the potential for flooding.  However there can often be a fine line between whether a storm should be named or not and on this occasion, the low-pressure system did not meet the criteria to become a named storm.

So what are the criteria for naming storms?

First, we consider the weather – how strong are the winds going to be? How much rain or snow is forecast and over how many hours?  We then look at additional factors that can influence the impacts from the weather, such as the time of day or time of year – wind gusts of 60 mph in September when trees are still in leaf may have more damaging impacts than the same wind strengths in February, when trees are bare.

The Met Office and Met Éireann started jointly naming storms in 2014 with the aim of raising awareness of the potential impacts of severe weather in Britain and Ireland.  In its fourth year running, the project has been very successful in quickly communicating the weather forecast to people, allowing them to plan and prepare for severe weather before it hits.  Especially in the age of social media, a trending storm name e.g. #StormGareth can be a very powerful tool in quickly letting people, our partners and the media know severe weather is on the way.

Every year we publish the list of storm names in advance and it is perhaps understandable that some might be tempted to ‘jump the gun’ and name a weather system ‘early’, but this can cause confusion – particularly if as in this case it turns out there is no named storm.

When the Met Office or Met Éireann officially names a storm we will announce this on twitter, highlight the storm on the homepage of our website and include it in our video broadcasts which can be viewed on our weather app.  So next time you aren’t sure whether or not a storm is on the way, please check here!

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Prestigious Award for Met Office scientist.

A Met Office Hadley Centre scientist has won a prestigious award for his pioneering research into sea level rise and its response to anthropogenic climate change.

Professor Jonathan Gregory has been given a prestigious BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award (Climate Change category), together with Anny Cazenave (Director for Earth Sciences at the International Space Science Institute in Bern, Switzerland) and Professor John Church (University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia)

The BBVA committee said the three laureates “pioneered the integration of satellite observations with in situ measurements and innovations in numerical modelling to develop an accurate and consistent depiction of sea-level change globally.”

As well as identifying the effect of human action on sea-level rise, their work has revealed that that the rate of increase is accelerating over time. It is thought that failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions could result in a sea-level rise exceeding one full metre by the end of this century, threatening the homes of around 100 million people living in coastal areas

Met Office Chief Scientist, Stephen Belcher, said; “I am delighted that Jonathan has been honoured in this way. It’s another demonstration of the fundamental role the Met Office Hadley centre and our scientists play in developing climate science.”

Jonathan Gregory’s research examined all components of sea-level change enabling better model projections for the future as well as improved understanding of the past. Professor Gregory said; “Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries to come, because the time scale for the warming of the deep ocean is centuries or millennia. However, we can influence by how much and how fast it will happen. We can’t stop the increase, but we are not too late to do something to mitigate it and reduce its impact.”

Professor Gregory contributed as lead author to the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in the chapters dealing with sea-level rise and ocean observation. Among other distinctions, he holds the FitzRoy Prize of the Royal Meteorological Society, and is a Fellow of the Royal Society and the American Geophysical Union.

 

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Is there another ‘Beast from the East’ on the way?

There have been many headlines in recent days proclaiming a return of the ‘Beast from the East’ and ‘triple polar vortex to trigger heavy snow’ with bookies reportedly cutting the odds that this month will end as the coldest January on record following a sudden stratospheric warming high above the Arctic.

So, just how much truth lies behind these headlines and what can we really say about the weather for the coming month? Our Deputy Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly explains.

Well, it is true that a sudden stratospheric warming has happened. The warming started around 22 December 2018 and the winds at around 30km above the North Pole have now reversed from westerly to easterly. At ground level we know that sudden stratospheric warmings tend to weaken the UK’s prevailing mild westerly winds, increasing the chances of us seeing colder weather a couple of weeks after a sudden stratospheric warming.

However, it’s important to note that not all sudden stratospheric warmings lead to colder-than-normal conditions over the UK and there are other global weather factors that result in blocked weather patterns and possible colder weather for us. These include El Niño and the Madden-Julian Oscillation that were well signalled in our 3-month outlook as early as the end of November.

Certainly, for the first ten days of January there is no strong signal for a cold easterly flow that was associated with the ‘Beast from the East’ last winter, and it’s too early to provide detailed forecasts for what the weather will be like for the remainder of January.

Our current 6-30 day forecast points to the likelihood of more mobile conditions before the arrival of anything that might potentially be colder. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

This cold spell is by no means certain though, and if you are hoping for, or need to prepare for possible cold and/or snowy weather, please keep up to date on our forecast pages and by following us on Twitter and Facebook. Our app is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

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September statistics

Despite seeing the first two named storms of the 2018/19 season, named by the Met Office and Met Éireann, and the remnants of an ex-tropical storm, Storm Helene, September in general was a fairly average month.

Area Max act

 

Max

anom

 

Min act

 

Min

anom

 

Mean act Mean anom
UK 16.3°C -0.2°C 8.5°C -0.4°C 12.4°C -0.3°C
England 18.1°C 0.3°C 9.2°C -0.3°C 13.7°C -0.0°C
Wales 16.1°C -0.5°C 8.9°C -0.2°C 12.5°C -0.4°C
Scotland 13.6°C -0.6°C 7.2°C -0.4°C 10.4°C -0.5°C
N Ireland 15.3°C -0.7°C 7.9°C -0.8°C 11.5°C -0.8°C

The weather was predominantly unsettled, although after Storm Ali and Storm Bronagh, high pressure quickly became established giving a sunny autumnal spell from the 24th, especially over southern areas.

Provisional mean temperatures September 2018

There were some chilly nights, at times, and some early frosts in a few prone locations. The minimum temperature of -3.6C at Katesbridge on Saturday morning 29th is a new regional minimum temperature record for September in Northern Ireland – beating the previous lowest of -3.2 at Magherally, Banbridge (not far away) on the morning of September 30th 1991.

Temperatures have fluctuated, with no particularly warm spells, and are averaging out to near normal for the month as a whole.

Area Rainfall

act

Rainfall anom

 

Sun act

 

Sun anom

 

UK 103.6mm 107% 135.2hrs 108%
England 59.1mm 85% 158.2hrs 115%
Wales 131.6mm 113% 128.5hrs 101%
Scotland 178.2mm 131% 105.1hrs 100%
N Ireland 56.6mm 62% 98.7hrs 87%

Rainfall has been above average for Wales, north west England and Scotland, but rather drier than average for most of Northern Ireland, Aberdeenshire and Fife, and the south-eastern half of England.

Provisional rainfall statistics for September 2018

Eastern areas have had a reasonably bright month, however it has been slightly duller than average in some places further west with the UK as a whole seeing 108% of the whole month’s average.

Provisional sunshine statistics for September 2018

Record-breaking summer

The average September followed on from a record-breaking summer, June, July and August was one of the warmest on record for the UK.  June was the third-warmest and  July the second-warmest in our official national records dating back to 1910, summer 2018 has provisionally been named joint warmest on record  with 2006, 2003 and 1976.

Named Storms

On September 11th the Met Office and Met Éireann revealed the list of storm names for the coming season. First introduced in 2015, this is the fourth year the Met Office and Met Éireann (the meteorological service in the Irish Republic) have jointly run the ‘Name our Storms’ scheme, aimed at raising awareness of severe weather before it hits.

We saw the first named storm of the season, Storm Ali, on September 19th.  It brought widespread strong winds and heavy rains, with the strongest gusts being recorded in Ireland, Northern Ireland and western Scotland, with gusts up to 91 mph in Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and parts of north Wales.

Exposed areas saw even higher gusts with Cairngorm Summit recording 105 mph and the Tay Road Bridge recording a gust of 102 mph.

Storm Bronagh was the second storm, bringing gusts of up to 78 mph to parts of England and Wales. Storm Bronagh was named on 20 September with strong winds forecast particularly for the southern half of the UK. It brought widespread strong winds and heavy rain, with the strongest gusts being recorded across the hills and coasts of England and Wales.

You can keep up to date with the weather using our forecast pages and by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using our new mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

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An active September for Tropical Cyclones

September is usually the most active month of the year for tropical cyclones worldwide, but in 2018 there were 21 named tropical cyclones active at some point during the month – just one short of the record of 22 set in 1966.

Atlantic

Despite conditions in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean not being as favourable for tropical cyclone formation as in 2017, the region still saw a total of seven named storms in September, the strongest of which developed outside of the deep tropics. Florence was the most significant hurricane bringing over 750 mm rain and severe flooding to North Carolina in the USA. Gordon made landfall as a tropical Storm over southern USA and Helene remained in the eastern Atlantic and affected the UK and Republic of Ireland as a ‘post-tropical’ storm. Isaac was a weakening tropical storm as it encountered the unfavourable conditions in the Caribbean, but still brought a spell of heavy rain to some islands as did Kirk a couple of weeks later. The latter produced some severe flooding in Barbados. Joyce meandered near the Azores for a few days and as the month ended Leslie was set to move slowly over central parts of the subtropical Atlantic for several days to come.

Hurricanes Florence and Helene with Tropical Storm Isaac seen at
1345 GMT 10 September 2018 (Credit: RAMMB/CIRA).

Eastern Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season in 2018 has been very active. In September Hurricanes Miriam and Norman remained far from land, but Olivia brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of Hawaii as it weakened on its journey into the central Pacific. Paul was a weak tropical storm, but as the month ended Tropical Storm Rosa, formerly a hurricane, threatened to bring flash flooding to parts of north-western Mexico, southern California and Arizona after landfall. Tropical Storm Sergio is expected to become a hurricane over open waters during early October.

Western Pacific

The month started with Typhoon Jebi bringing strong winds and rain to parts of Japan. Mangkhut developed soon after and ploughed a track across the northern Philippines as a powerful typhoon causing loss of life and severe damage from wind and flooding.  Mangkhut went on to also have severe impacts over Hong Kong. Barijat reached southern China as a weak tropical storm, but the next in line was Trami which became another powerful typhoon. After moving slowly for several days east of Taiwan, it eventually crossed the Ryukyu Islands and into the main islands of Japan at a similar location to Jebi a few weeks before. As the month ended, Typhoon Kong-rey looked set to head towards Japan or South Korea during the first week of October.

Typhoon Mangkhut seen at 0800 GMT 13 September 2018 (Credit: RAMMB/CIRA).

Elsewhere in the Globe

Walaka became the first storm to be named in the central Pacific region for two years and quickly developed into a hurricane. In the Bay of Bengal a depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Daye just before landfall and brought flooding impacts to parts of India. There was also an unusual September tropical storm in the South Pacific near the Solomon Islands named Liua.

In addition to the named tropical storms described above there were other weaker tropical depressions in the Atlantic, east and west Pacific and the south Indian Ocean. Finally, the Mediterranean saw what is often referred to as a ‘medicane’, which made landfall over Greece as a likely tropical or subtropical storm bringing severe flooding to some regions. Since this was not officially named by any tropical cyclone warning agency, it has not been included in the total of 21 named storms for the month of September.

Mediterranean Storm at 1130 GMT 29 September 2018

Further Information

Follow our Twitter feed @metofficestorms for regular information on tropical cyclones currently active worldwide.

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‘Medicane’ bringing ‘rough seas’ to Mediterranean

A strong storm developing in the Mediterranean Sea, frequently referred to as a ‘medicane’, has been making the news in the last couple of days, but what exactly is a ‘medicane’?

How is it defined?

There is actually no official meteorological definition of the term ‘medicane’, but it is often used to describe a deep area of low pressure which forms in the Mediterranean Sea and acquires characteristics of a tropical cyclone and sometimes has the appearance of a hurricane. Tropical cyclones are distinct from low pressure areas which form at higher latitudes in that: they derive their energy from the warm ocean surface; do not have warm and cold fronts associated with them; and have their strongest winds and most intense storm activity close to their centre.

So-called Medicane over the Mediterranean on 28 September 2018

Mediterranean Storm at 1115 BST 28 September 2018

Julian Heming is a tropical cyclone expert at the Met Office. He said: “The current storm over the Mediterranean Sea formed from the clash of cold air pushing south over the Balkans and warm air moving north from Africa and so was initially not considered a ‘tropical’ storm. However, as it has strengthened over the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea it is starting to acquire some characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Bands of thunderstorms are starting to wrap around the low pressure centre, although are not yet concentrated close to the centre as you might see in a fully ‘tropical’ cyclone.”

How unusual is it?

Storms in the Mediterranean Sea which exhibit some characteristics of a tropical cyclone are not particularly rare. The last example, in November 2017, produced flash flooding over parts of Greece. Similar storms also occurred in 2016 and 2014 bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Crete and Malta respectively.

Does it have a name?

Tropical cyclones are named by designated regional warning centres around the globe. Whilst the US National Hurricane Center decides when to name tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, its jurisdiction does not cover the Mediterranean Sea, so there is no official list of names for storms with tropical characteristics in this region. However, various names have been colloquially applied to the current storm in the Mediterranean Sea.

What will its impacts be?

Paul Hutcheon is a deputy chief meteorologist at the Met Office. He said: “Regardless of its definition, the storm in the Mediterranean Sea is expected to bring some major impacts to parts of southern Europe over the weekend.

“This deep area of low pressure is already producing storm force winds across parts of the Central Mediterranean, with these winds building very rough seas that could impact marine transport.

“During the weekend the storm will move east across southern Greece and into western Turkey, although the winds will slowly ease as the storm weakens. However, strong winds are still likely to affect parts of Greece, with very heavy rainfall expected from thunderstorms affecting Greece and western Turkey.

“The rainfall could result in flash flooding and landslides across parts of Greece and western Turkey this weekend, with frequent lightning expected within the thunderstorm activity.”

The animation above – produced on 28 September 2018 – shows the expected evolution of the medicane weather system. Follow our Twitter feeds @metoffice and @metofficestorms for more information on the Mediterranean storm and tropical cyclones currently active worldwide.

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A weak El Niño is likely

Consensus is growing among scientists from a range of climate centres across the world that a weak El Niño is likely to occur during the coming northern hemisphere winter.

The above diagram shows the temperature observations for the central region of the Pacific (in black) and the evolution predicted by the Met Office dynamical long-range ensemble forecast system (in red).

Professor Adam Scaife is the head of long-term to decadal climate prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre. Commenting on the expectations of an El Niño this winter, Professor Scaife said: “There is a range of forecasts, but the most likely scenario is for the development of a weak to moderate strength El Niño event.

“This event, however, is expected to be much less intense than the joint record El Niño of 2015-16.”

El Niño is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the largest natural fluctuation in the earth’s climate system – and it stretches along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. During more extreme El Niño events, such as the event beginning in late 2015, the surface ocean temperature rose almost 3.0 °C above the long-term average: the rise in temperature in this winter’s anticipated event is expected to be far less, around 0.5-1.0 °C above normal.

The phases of ENSO have influences on weather patterns in the Pacific basin. However, they also have an influence on global climate patterns, including those affecting north-west Europe.

There has been some recent media speculation about how an El Niño may affect our weather over winter. Prof Scaife said: “Understanding the influence that the ENSO cycle can have on the world’s weather patterns is a useful tool for long-range weather forecasting, but it’s important to understand that it’s not the only factor which determines our weather here in the UK.

“An El Niño can create wetter and windier conditions in the first half of winter and it can bring a colder and drier second half, but El Niño is just one factor and others will vie to affect our winter. For example, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with its 14-month pattern of alternating easterly and westerly winds along the equator can weaken or strengthen the jet stream.

“Finally, El Niño events have a marked but delayed warming effect on global temperature and we will be quantifying this in our global temperature forecast for 2019 later this year.”

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Meeting the Met Office’s Thai Cave rescue hero

The rescue of the 12 Thai boys and their football coach from the flooded cave complex they had been trapped in for days captured the world’s imagination last month.

The heroic rescue team was assembled from the handful of people throughout the world with the incredibly specialist skills and experience needed – and one of them works for the Met Office.

When 27 year-old Josh Bratchley isn’t performing superhuman subterranean feats, he is an Operational Meteorologist, based at RAF Valley in Anglesey. We caught up with Josh just after he returned from a reception for the British members of the dive team at 10 Downing Street…

Downing_St_pic1

So, Josh – where to start? Do you get up to this sort of thing a lot?

Well, two of my biggest hobbies are caving and cave-diving, so yes, I spend quite a lot of time in cold water underground!

I have trained for years with the UK Cave Diving Group, which is the oldest amateur diving club in the world. I’d only recently returned in April from an expedition to the cave systems under the Sierra Mazateca mountains in Mexico, where we were camping for over a week at a time in caverns beyond flooded passages.

diving_mexico

Josh in action in Mexico

 

How did you come to be involved in the rescue?

There is a relatively small international community of cave divers, so in fact a lot of us know each other anyway. The harsh conditions of UK cave diving sites meant British divers had a lot of suitable skills for the conditions likely to be experienced in the Thai rescue – like zero visibility in awkward passages, and strong currents. It was a situation that demanded high levels of adaptability and calm under all circumstances, so trust among members of the dive team was very important.

The Thai government requested assistance from the British Cave Rescue Council. Rick and John, two of the divers requested by name at the very beginning, were the ones who first found the children alive. Canadian and European divers who live in Thailand were also called up, and the British team asked for two Australian cave divers who are also medical professionals to join them.

So how much notice did you have before you had to leave Wales?

It wasn’t that simple actually, I was mountaineering in the Italian Dolomites when the call came, asking if I could be on a plane to Bangkok within 24 hours. I went to the nearest international airport within an hour to book the next flight back to the UK.

That sounds like the start of an action movie! How long were you travelling for?

I landed at Gatwick at 11pm and I was driven to North Wales by one British Cave Rescue team and back to Heathrow by another. Then I flew via Bangkok to Chiang Rai, where I was met by the Thai police. I think it was about 36 sleepless hours in the end!

That would have been enough for me – then you had to go into an underground river?!

Yes, I was directly involved in the operation as a cave rescue diver, working in the dive team to get the children out one at a time. It was an extremely high pressure situation which required undisturbed concentration, so unsurprisingly I didn’t have any time to photograph events!

mexico_cave_dive

Caverns under the Sierra Mazateca mountains in Mexico

 

I think we’ll let you off that one. When you’re not hard at work advising the RAF, what on Earth have you got planned next?

My immediate future plans – as far as September, anyway – include alpine caving in the Dachstein mountain range in Austria looking to make a connection in to the Hirlatzhohle from above to create one of the world’s deepest caves, and cave diving in the Picos de Europa in northern Spain, where we’re also looking to try and connect some deep caves together.

Wow. Josh, thanks for talking to us – we all take our hats off to you and your incredible efforts.

mission_accomplished

Josh and other members of the UK team were invited to meet the PM, and were also presented with a ‘Mission Accomplished’ placard by the local Thai people.

 

 

 

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Summer temperature 2018 – the ‘new normal’?

The Met Office Chief Scientist, Professor Stephen Belcher, appeared on BBC Newsnight on Tuesday evening to talk about current extreme temperatures and climate change.

The interviewer Emily Maitlis asked if the current hot temperatures we are seeing can be considered the ‘new normal’. Certainly, there can be no doubt that the summer of 2018 has been remarkable both in the UK and across the world.

Professor Brian Hoskins, Chair of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College, and of University of Reading, spoke on the BBC World Tonight on Tuesday and also spoke about the links between the current heat wave and climate change.

Here Stephen and Brian give a perspective on the heat wave and its connections to climate change.

In the UK the hot weather has been with us on and off since April.  Some parts of East Anglia and southeast England have had virtually no rain in more than 55 days, and we may see our all time highest temperature record of 38.5C fall by the end of this week.

The Arctic Circle has seen temperatures top 30C, including at Badufoss and Makkaur in Norway, and in Finland temperatures have hit 33.4C.

Meanwhile in Japan on Monday, the city of Kumagaya reported a new record temperature for the country, 41.1C, and temperatures have exceeded 40C in central Tokyo for the first time ever and there have been reports of many people being taken sick with heat stroke.

Naturally people are asking whether this is a result of climate change – is this the ‘new normal’. So what can we say?

Well, the atmospheric patterns leading to the UK heat wave do occur in the natural cycles in the weather, but they have been unusually persistent. The jet stream has weakened and got stuck to the north of the UK, with high pressure settled over the UK and Europe. In the summer such a pattern leads to dry soils, which means that if the sunny weather continues the energy of the sun is not used up in evaporating water and the temperatures rise even more.

Comparison of 1976 and 2018 June temperature anomalies, based on Met Office HadCRUT4 data set

In addition,  we’ve seen a background of global warming due mostly to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases, with global mean temperatures rising more than 1C above pre-industrial levels, and even more so over the northern continents. The natural cycles of weather mean that we shouldn’t expect heatwaves like this to happen every year but, when we do experience them, the warmer world means that there is an increased risk of even higher temperatures.

In 2003 Europe also experienced a pronounced heat wave. Research led at the Met Office showed that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere doubled the chance of the temperatures recorded in 2003 compared to what we’d expect in a pre-industrial world. This research also concluded that by the 2040’s the temperatures we saw in Europe in 2003 could be  fairly normal in summer. We have updated this prediction with more recent data, and found that this prediction is still on track: the extreme temperatures we saw in the summer of 2003 can be expected to occur more regularly in Europe by the 2040s.  

Summer mean temperature anomalies over Europe (area in enclosed box) from CRUTEM4 observations (black), climate model simulations from CMIP5 (following RCP8.5) which include all forcings including greenhouse gases (red) and with only natural forcings (green). If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero by 2050 the growth in temperature would cease

At the Met Office, in collaboration with the Universities, we are carrying out a detailed analysis of this particular heatwave and its expression in a warming world. We’re aiming to understand  why the weather pattern this summer was so persistent, and to what extent this persistence may be influenced by human-induced climate change, as well as the role of global warming by greenhouse gases in raising the temperatures experienced in the heat wave. We’ll publish our findings later in the year.

The temperatures we are currently experiencing may not yet be the ‘new normal’, but within a few decades they could be.

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Medal for Met mathematician

A leading Met Office climate scientist has been awarded the Copernicus Medal, a prestigious international award for pioneering research.

Adam Scaife August 2016

Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office – who is also Professor of applied mathematics at the University of Exeter – was chosen as the winner by the international judging panel for his research into the causes, simulation and prediction of climate variability.

Presented with the medal at a ceremony during the Royal Meteorological Society’s Atmospheric Science Conference, Adam said: “I am truly delighted to receive this award. It is encouraging and humbling to have my work recognised in this way and I want to acknowledge the dedication and hard work of all of my collaborators and everyone in my research group. Together, we have uncovered exciting new results on long-range predictability of the atmosphere.”

Adam’s research group issues climate forecasts on a regular basis and develops long range predictions for adaptation to climate variability and change. He carries out research on climate variability and has published more than 150 peer-reviewed articles on the mechanisms, improved computer modelling and predictability of regional climate. His group recently made an important breakthrough in seasonal forecasting which allows skilful prediction and new applications of long range forecasts for Europe and North America.

The Copernicus Medal is presented annually by an international and interdisciplinary panel. It recognises ingenious and innovative work in the geosciences, planetary and space sciences, and exceptional efforts in international collaboration in scientific research.

 

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