2020 was a remarkable year for our climate, with the year being the UK’s third warmest, sixth wettest and eighth sunniest in the UK national series, extending back to 1884, 1862 and 1919, respectively.
An attribution study looking at the temperatures for 2020 has been produced by the Met Office using peer-reviewed methods. The result is available on Carbon Brief. It suggests that without human-induced climate change, a year as warm as 2020 in the UK would have a likelihood of 1.1 % (uncertainty range 0.9 % – 1.3 %), or around one year in 90. For the present day climate the likelihood estimate increases by around a factor of 50, to 56% (range 53 % – 58 %) suggesting an expectation that we would now expect around half of years to exceed the warmth of 2020.
The impact of climate change on total annual rainfall for the UK is less clear than for temperature. This is a consequence of the high variability in rainfall over the UK, and also because climate change is most likely to result in wetter winters and drier summers overall, change which will consequently be less obvious in an annual total. However the likelihood of years as wet as 2020 is increasing, and is expected to continue to do so through the 21st Century.
Dr Mark McCarthy is the head of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre. He said: “The dominance of above average temperatures throughout the year are clearly apparent, with notable warm spells in April, June, August, and November. Only July and October being cooler than average overall. The exceptional rainfall in late winter followed by the extended dry and sunny spring really dominate the rainfall and sunshine series for the year.”
Dr Nikos Christidis is a senior climate scientist with the Met Office. Nikos, who specialises in climate attribution, said: “An attribution study allows you to run scenarios on climate models using varying concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. By looking at the atmosphere of pre-industrial times you can see that the high annual mean temperature of 2020 would have been quite a rare event. But with today’s levels of greenhouse gases we can expect temperatures of this level to occur slightly more frequently than one year in two. In future this will increase further.”
Dr Mark McCarthy added: “Our weather is playing out on a background of ongoing global climate change. It is therefore no surprise at all that the UK climate is also continuing to change as a result. The UK has warmed by close to 1.0 °C, comparable to the global rise in mean temperature.”
About this blog
This is the official blog of the Met Office news team, intended to provide journalists and bloggers with the latest weather, climate science and business news and information from the Met Office.
The blog will post latest news releases and related content, news diary and information supporting news stories already in the media.
Search this site
Awards
Categories
Met Office on Twitter
- @GinaUpex Amazing photos Gina! "Red sky in the morning, shepherds warning." This weather lore may prove true today… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 24 minutes ago
- @Matt_Pinner @DorsetSnow @LEEFilters @VisitBritainIN @ChrisGPackham @visit_dorset @BBCEarth @Bournemouthecho… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 38 minutes ago
- @abzpaul Loving the photo Paul! Can spot the weather station as well. A bit chilly through the week but there shoul… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 hour ago
- @Kittywitches Great capture! Loving the sunrise however as the saying goes 'Red sky in the morning, shepherds warni… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 hour ago
Met Office on Facebook
Archives
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- January 2019
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
Met Office News
- Global climate data set update reveals greater warming 15 December, 2020
- Boosting research at junction of climate science and AI 16 December, 2020
- Number of UK ice days slipping away 7 December, 2020
- 2020 - a remarkable year 4 January, 2021
- Expertise allowing future flight technology to soar 18 January, 2021
See Also...
Posts by RSS
- Atlantic
- BBC
- Christmas
- climate
- climate change
- climate science
- cold
- Drought
- dry
- El Nino
- England
- environment
- Environment Agency
- flood
- flooding
- forecast
- frost
- gales
- global warming
- heatwave
- heavy rain
- hot
- hurricane
- ice
- iPhone
- Japan
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- Jet stream
- july
- june
- La Niña
- Lightning
- London
- MetOffice
- Met Office
- Met Office Hadley Centre
- NASA
- National Hurricane Center
- National Severe Weather Warning Service
- NOAA
- Northern Ireland
- Philippines
- Pollen
- rain
- rainfall
- record
- Scotland
- severe weather
- snow
- space weather
- spring
- statistics
- Storm
- storms
- strong winds
- summer
- Sun
- sunshine
- temperature
- thunder
- thunderstorms
- tropical cyclone
- tropical storm
- Typhoon
- UK
- Wales
- warm
- weather
- weather forecast
- weather forecasting
- wet
- wind
- Winter
- World Meteorological Organization
Top Posts