Tropical Weather Updates

Typhoon Haima

Typhoon Haima made landfall yesterday over the Cagayan and Isabela provinces of the Philippines. Haima had reached an intensity equivalent to a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale whilst east of the Philippines, but was weakening as it made landfall. Considerable damage has been reported in cities such as Tuguegarao which was in its path.

Having crossed the Philippine island of Luzon, Typhoon Haima has now emerged into the South China Sea. Although in a weakened state, it will still be able to deliver strong winds, a storm surge and 300-500 mm rain when it makes a second landfall over southern China just east of Hong Kong on Friday morning UK time. Haima will weaken to a tropical storm after landfall, but is expected to produce heavy rain across parts of south-east China as it turns north and east. The residual depression could then emerge back out to sea and bring disturbed weather to parts of south-western Japan later in the weekend.


Typhoon Haima on 20 October 2016 (Credit: NOAA)

The Caribbean

Parts of the Caribbean are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew a couple of weeks ago. Matthew devastated parts of Haiti when it made landfall as a category 4 hurricane. In the next few days the ongoing humanitarian effort to assist the recovery is likely to be disrupted by periods of heavy rain which form along a band of warm moist air stretching from Central America, across the Caribbean Sea and into the Atlantic Ocean. An additional 75-150 mm rain per day is expected over Haiti during the next few days which could produce local flash flooding and landslides.

It is possible that a tropical or subtropical storm could develop just north-east of the Bahamas in the next day or two at the northern end of this band of warm moist air. This storm is likely to move northwards and merge with another trough of low pressure over the USA to bring some disturbed weather the north-eastern USA and eastern Canada at the weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics

The cyclone season for the North Indian Ocean usually occurs in two halves from April to June and October to December. There are indications from forecast models that a tropical depression or tropical storm may form in the Bay of Bengal in the next few days. This would be the first storm in the region since Tropical Storm Roanu in May. If it does develop the likely track would take it over or very close to the coast of Myanmar by the latter part of the weekend.

Further Information

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the North Atlantic warnings are issued by the US National Hurricane Center and in the North Indian Ocean by the India Meteorological Department. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

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