Europe (not including the UK)
Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to affect parts of the northern Mediterranean today. Southern France and northwest Italy could see another 50-150mm of rain, following on from similar amounts yesterday (Thursday).
“Red” warnings for heavy rain have been issued for parts of northwest Italy for today, with widespread “Amber” and “Yellow” warnings elsewhere for heavy rain and strong winds
By the weekend the heavy rain is expected to have reached the western Balkans and eventually Greece. The rainfall brings with it an increased risk of flash flooding and landslides, with possible disruption to travel (including aviation) across the region. Strong winds could also disrupt shipping.
Meanwhile, parts of northwest Spain and Portugal are also being affected by rain and could see 50-100mm on both Sunday and Monday, bringing a flooding and landslide risk to the area.
Typhoon Sarika and Hurricane Nicole
Typhoon Sarika is about 370 miles east of Manila in the western Pacific, and is expected to track across southern and central Luzon today and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph, with gusts of 125 mph, are expected as it crosses Luzon, bringing 300-500 mm of rain in places. Destructive winds, flash flooding and a significant storm surge is expected.
Sarika is then expected to move across the South China Sea early next week, potentially reaching Hainan, China and eventually the Hanoi region of Vietnam as a major typhoon by the middle of next week.
Hurricane Nicole passed over Bermuda as a Major Category 3 hurricane yesterday (Thursday), with maximum sustained winds of around 120mph, gusts of around 150mph and 150-250mm of rain.
Widespread loss of power was reported yesterday across the island. Nicole has weakened to Category 1 with gusts to 105 mph and has moved north-east of Bermuda into open waters of the Atlantic. It will continue to track away from the island and gradually weaken as it moves towards the central northern Atlantic, becoming “post tropical” on Saturday.
A series of active Pacific storm systems are expected to run into the Pacific northwest of the USA from northern California through Oregon and Washington to southwest British Columbia, Canada, over the next few days. Locally heavy and persistent rain is likely, with as much as 300 to 400 mm of rainfall accumulating in places.
Major cities such as Seattle and Vancouver are likely to be affected. Cold air to the east means the Rockies are likely to see some early season snow. Flash floods and landslides are possible. In addition strong to gale force winds are likely, with the risk of damage to trees and power supplies, with some large waves likely to affect coastal areas.
Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are issued by the US National Hurricane Center. In the western North Pacific warnings are issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.