As we head into the peak of the northern hemisphere tropical storm season, there are tropical storms active in the North Atlantic and across the North Pacific. Here is a roundup of current activity:
North Atlantic
Gaston recently became the third hurricane of the Atlantic season, but has now weakened back down to tropical storm strength. Gaston has the potential to re-intensify over the weekend – perhaps to a major hurricane. However, it is expected to remain over open water in the central Atlantic, possibly causing some large swell as it passes east of Bermuda early next week.
Hurricane Gaston in the North Atlantic at 1610 UTC 25 August 2016. Image courtesy of EUMETSAT
Meanwhile, in the northern Caribbean a region of low pressure close to Cuba has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 5 days. If it does develop, this storm will be called Hermine. Gale force winds, heavy rain and flash flooding is possible over Hispaniola and Cuba during the next couple of days. There is uncertainty in the exact path of this system, but it looks likely to head northwest close to South Florida, and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as indicated by the National Hurricane Center’s map below.
A second area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico is also being closely monitored, but currently only has a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days.
Tropical cyclone potential for the next 5 days. Image courtesy of the US National Hurricane Center
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Storm Lester formed on 25 August, becoming the 12th tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Lester is forecast to become a hurricane later today, but is expected to remain out at sea and pose no threat to land.
Another region of low pressure to the west of Lester is also being closely watched for development. This region has a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days and could become a tropical depression over the weekend.
Western North Pacific
In the western North Pacific Typhoon Lionrock is currently situated to the south of Japan. Lionrock has strengthened overnight and further strengthening of this storm is expected over the weekend as it starts to head northeast. Although the forecast track for Lionrock is uncertain at this stage, it could pass close to or over the east coast of Honshu, Japan early next week. This region has already seen Typhoon Mindulle make landfall in Tokyo earlier this week.
Typhoon Lionrock to the south of Japan at 0800 UTC 26 August 2016. Image courtesy of JMA
Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Central North Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center.
The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.
You can keep up to date on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter and through our Storm Tracker page.
