A warm plume of air has extended north from Africa into continental Europe, and is the focus for some potentially severe thunderstorms this weekend. The risk will transfer east from France on Saturday to Germany and the Alps on Sunday then into eastern Europe for the start of next week. These storms will bring the risk of flash flooding, large hail and strong winds.
An area of low pressure and associated active frontal system will bring heavy, possibly thundery, rain to parts of France, Belgium and the Netherlands on Sunday and Monday. Up to two months worth of rain could fall in a few places. However, there is uncertainty in the details of where the heaviest rainfall will fall, but there is a risk of flooding across this part of Europe.
Tuesday and Wednesday also look unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain across much of continental Europe and temperatures below the average for late May / early June across much of western continental Europe.
As a result disruption to play is possible at the French Open in Paris from Saturday through to the middle of next week, with a risk of showers or thunderstorms close to Monaco on Sunday for the Grand Prix. There is even a low risk of a shower for the Champions League Final in Milan, although it should remain dry and very warm here.
Looking further afield and the National Hurricane Center in Miami has stated that there is a 90% chance of a Tropical or Sub-Tropical Storm forming just east of the Bahamas through the next few days. If this storm does form it will be named Bonnie and its likely track takes it northwest around the sub-tropical ridge towards the USA and into the Carolinas later in the weekend, and this could lead to some local flooding to this region.
Although the official hurricane season in the Atlantic does not start until June the first hurricane of the season, named Alex, unusually formed in January and tracked across part of the eastern Atlantic.
The Met Office recently released its seasonal forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season. After a relatively quiet season in 2015 the forecast calls for tropical cyclone activity slightly above normal levels in 2016.
Unsettled conditions are also expected across western parts of the Caribbean through the next 5 or 6 days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic due to a plume of warm air becoming destabilised by cooler air aloft. There is a risk of local flash flooding in this region, with this risk likely to increase next week as the thunderstorm activity becomes more widespread across the region.
Meanwhile in the South China Sea a tropical disturbance is set to bring heavy rain and some flooding to parts of Guangdong province of China. The disturbance is unlikely to have time to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall west of Hong Kong.
Official warnings for the tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are produced by the National Hurricane Center and for the western North Pacific by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.