Heavy rain is expected across parts of north Wales, northwest England and southwest Scotland on Saturday into Sunday, clearing to the southeast on Monday. We have issued a yellow weather warning for rain for these areas, while the Environment Agency, Natural Resource Wales (NRW) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) are assessing the potential flood risk.
A slow moving frontal system is bringing moist tropical air across the UK from the west resulting in some heavy and persistent rain, especially over exposed hills. Parts of the warning area could see 70-100 mm of rain, with some of the more exposed parts of north Wales and northwest England possibly seeing as much as 150-200 mm through the period.
The Environment Agency is concerned that this amount of additional rainfall falling on to already saturated ground could well lead to flooding, either from standing water, or from rivers bursting their banks. Flood warnings have been issued for parts of northern England.
NRW are planning to put flood risk management procedures in place if required and will issue Flood Alerts and Warnings if rivers reach trigger levels. The warnings are updated on the NRW website every 15 minutes.
The warnings will be kept under review and adjusted should the weather system change or develop and potential impacts vary.
At the start of this month I expected this autumn to bring under 220 mm of rainfall. However it now looks like November will bring MORE rain than September and October combined (126 mm).