Early provisional figures (1-28 October) show sunshine and temperatures were above normal in almost all places this month while rainfall has been below average, especially in western areas.
Much of October has been relatively settled, with high pressure dominating our weather. This has led to many dry, sunny days but cold nights and even a few frosts (coldest so far -5.0 °C at Braemar on 17th). Although the end of the month so far has been more unsettled, it has remained milder than average.
Rainfall has been below average, especially in the west of the UK, with only around 30% of average in eastern parts of Wales. The exception to this has been a band from Cambridgeshire to North Yorkshire and around Aberdeen where rainfall has been around average (at the time these figures were compiled we would expect around 90% of the month’s total rainfall and sunshine to have happened).
Maximum temperatures (daytime) have been above normal in almost all areas for October, with north west Scotland being 2°C above, while south-east England stayed around average. However cooler nights have led to Mean temperatures (average of daytime and night-time temperatures) over most of England and Wales being near average, but a degree or so above in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
|EARLY||mean temperature||sunshine duration||precipitation|
|1-28 Oct 2015||Act||Anom||Act||Anom||Act||Anom|
Meanwhile Halloween starts off cloudy or foggy for many with some patchy rain across northern parts. However this clears leaving a mild day with patchy sunshine for many in the afternoon. Sunday, 1st November, looks much the same staying mostly dry with some sunny spells. Check out our five day forecast for more details.
Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.
How can monthly anomalies ranging from +0.1 to +0.7°C above average possibly equate to ‘Warm’?
If Central England Temperatures are anything to go by, most of the month of October temperatures have been very close to average, with some quite cold nights (Altnaharra had 3 sharp air frosts). If you want an example of a warm October, look no further than last year, when mean anomalies were closer to +2°C.
I can see that the ‘barbecue summer’ thinking is still alive and kicking at the Met Office.
I believe the driest autumn recorded was in 1922 with 193 mm. It looks as though Sept-Oct this year might end up recording around 140 mm, possibly slightly less. How many Novembers have recorded 53 mm or less rainfall? I counted four from Met Office data. So the record for the driest autumn on record in the past 105 or so years MIGHT not be in danger.
Under 130 mm of autumn rainfall by the end of October: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/UK.txt