Warm, dry, sunny start to October

The first half of October has been dominated by high pressure, giving a warm, dry, sunny start to October across the UK.

The month started with some weather fronts crossing the UK bringing rain in places. However the mid month statistics* (1 -14th October 2015) show that from the 5th onwards a high pressure system has dominated our weather bringing dry, settled conditions for most of us.

However, because of the position high pressure, we have seen relatively cool air coming in from the north-east. This has resulted in plenty of pleasant, sunny days, particularly in western areas, but with temperatures dropping away at night and a few frosts in places (coldest in this period -3.7 °C at Altnaharra on 13th).  Sunshine hours and maximum temperatures so far this month have been above average, but many places have seen night time temperatures below what we would expect, meaning the overall mean temperatures so far are above average for the whole of October.

MeanTemp Oct 1-14 2015

Rainfall has been well below normal in western areas, although closer to what would be expected by this point in the month in some eastern parts of the UK.  As a whole the UK has seen just 20% of the expected monthly rainfall so far, well short of the 50% we would expect to see by mid month.

1-14 Oct 2015 mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
degC degC hours % mm %
UK 10.3 0.8 57.1 62 25.5 20
England 11 0.6 60.7 59 25.2 27
Wales 10.4 0.5 60.2 65 24.8 15
Scotland   9.1 1.2 49.7 66 28.5 16
N Ireland 10.3 0.9 61.4 70 12.1 10

Of course, while these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. Latest forecasts show that the settled weather is expected to continue for many over the next few days, before conditions become generally more unsettled across the UK with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, interspersed with drier, brighter periods as we head towards the end of the month.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

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2 Responses to Warm, dry, sunny start to October

  1. Tony says:

    In Berkshire, I have a negative departure from the norm of -0.5c currently based upon your 1981-2010 figures for the Central Southern England region. So, clearly some variation locally as to be expected. My current precipitation amount of 29.2mm being close to the figures expressed for England.

    Best Wishes

    Tony Powell and naturestimeline

  2. xmetman says:

    Generally a dry month so far this October (totals up to the 20th), with some places like Lyneham, Milford-Haven, Warcop and Belfast very dry indeed. The reason being of course that the month has been at least 60% anticyclonic. The wettest places in the rankings are in the north of Scotland, with Lerwick wettest with 71 mm (2.8″) of rain. Of course, now we have a bit more progression back in the system the balance may well be redressed.

    You can find rainfall accumulations and rankings here:

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