A summer forecasting challenge for Friday

Forecasting rainfall for the UK during the summer has always posed a more difficult challenge than other times of year – and the weather for this Friday is a perfect example.

The various computer models the Met Office uses to forecast the weather differ on how a low pressure system forming to the west of the UK will behave.

We know that it will bring some wind and rain to the southern half of the UK, but there is no consensus on exactly which track it will take across the country and precisely when it will arrive.

Below you can see the area most likely to see some persistent rain during Friday and into Saturday. There is a 30% chance that rainfall could extend further north than this. The system is likely to bring up to 15-25 mm of rain and winds of up to 30 mph, mainly in exposed areas.

Forecast uncertainties 24-25-July

Currently there are no plans to issue a weather warning for this event, but clearly it has the potential to affect people’s plans for Friday now summer holidays are in full swing.  You can hear more about Friday’s forecast in the video below.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on the situation as it develops to ensure everyone has the clearest picture of what’s likely for Friday, so it’s worth staying up to date with the forecast over the next couple of days.

The current situation is a good example of why summer is tricky because at this time of year the details are vitally important.

Will the showers be inland or at the coast, when will low cloud clear to let warm sunshine through? In winter this might not be so important, but in summer when many are outside making the most of all the UK has to offer it can make a huge difference to your day.

Familiar features of our landscape such as hills, valleys or the sea can cause subtle variations in heat and moisture and therefore dominate the local weather outcome.  This can result in big differences in the weather in quite small areas, it can be sunny on the beach but raining inland or a village fair could be rained off while the next village down the road is dry.

At this time of year it’s always a good idea to keep a close eye on the forecast as the situation can change from day to day.

We’re always harnessing new science and technology to make forecasting ever more accurate and summer forecasting is a major focus for future gains.

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One Response to A summer forecasting challenge for Friday

  1. Tony says:

    An honest answer is the best approach when faced with such a conundrum. Begs the question, why are these BoB and SW approaches events hard to nail down in terms of specifics right up to nearing the event. Surely Meteo France could get their heads together with UKMO and improve the accuracy of forecasts. Do you need more buoys out there or is my impression of the inaccuracy of such event predicting way off? As a Central Southern England resident I remember many difficult forecasting situations similar to one upcoming and the end result being different that first predicted.

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