The Met Office Atlantic tropical storm forecast for 2013 is for 14 tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 10 to 18.
The long-term average over the period 1980–2010 is 12 tropical storms. The last three hurricane seasons have all recorded above average tropical storm activity.
The most likely Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index — a measure of the strength and duration of storms over the season — is 130, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 76 to 184; the 1980–2010 average ACE index is 104.
For the first time this year, the Met Office are also releasing a forecast of the number of hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 74 mph), following the success of experimental forecasts produced throughout the 2012 hurricane season.
Between June and November 2013 the best estimate is for 9 hurricanes, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 4 to 14; the 1980–2010 average is 6 hurricanes.
Overall, these indicators point to a preference for above-average activity this year.
The evolution of the El Niño/La Niña cycle over the next few months is likely to play a large part in the North Atlantic hurricane season.
Joanne Camp, climate scientist at the Met Office, said: “El Niño conditions in the Pacific can hinder the development of tropical storms in the Atlantic whereas La Niña conditions can enhance tropical storm activity, so how these conditions develop will be important for the storm season ahead.”
The tropical storm forecast is produced using the Met Office’s new seasonal prediction system GloSea5. The model has higher resolution than its predecessor, with better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storms and hurricanes. The forecast also uses information from the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
For regular updates on tropical cyclones worldwide follow @metofficestorms on Twitter.