This weekend’s weather forecast is proving more challenging than usual as we see signs of much more unsettled conditions developing for all parts of the UK over the next few days.

Much of the UK is set to have a fine and dry weekend with sunny spells, light winds and temperatures in the mid to high teens Celsius after some cold nights.

There is now increasing confidence that southern parts of the UK (roughly south of a line from south Wales to Ipswich) will see wet and windy weather on Sunday.

This wet and windy weather is not the remnants of tropical storm Nadine – this stays close to the Azores. However, we are expecting a new area of low pressure to develop to the west of Iberia on Saturday which will move northeast, pulling some warm air from Nadine with it. It is this that would bring wet and windy weather to the far south of England and Wales for Sunday and other parts of the UK next week.

The challenge for forecasters is to pinpoint how this low pressure area will move. The weather forecast models available to Met Office forecasters are giving slightly different answers to this problem. As Anthony Astbury, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, explains: “One model brings the low over Brittany giving rain and gales in the south of England, while another brings the low further west, with the risk of wet and windy weather for southwestern England and south Wales.”

There is still uncertainty about how the low pressure area will develop and move on Monday, and therefore which areas of the UK will see the worst of the weather early next week.

However, this heralds a spell of very unsettled weather for the whole of the UK for next week, with all parts seeing unsettled and windy conditions with showers or longer spells of rain.

Keep up to date with the forecast and warnings for the latest information.