There have been a number of stories in the media today (see the bottom of this post for a selection) reporting on the chance that we may be in for another cold weather across the UK. There has also been some confusion as to the source of this forecast elsewhere, with some suggesting that the forecast has been issued by the Met Office. This is not the case. The forecast was issued by another weather forecasting organisation called Positive Weather Solutions.
The Met Office no longer issues public long-range forecasts because in our customer research the public have told us they would prefer a monthly outlook. Although the limitations in science mean monthly forecasts are themselves a developing area of forecasting and will therefore be less precise than our short-term forecasts, the public have told us that a monthly outlook would be of use to them. These weather forecasts are available on our website.
Of course, by their nature, forecasts become less accurate the further out you look. Although we can identify general patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain type of weather. As a result, ‘seasonal forecasts’ cannot be as precise as short-term forecasts. This is especially true in the UK, one of the hardest places to provide forecasts for because of our size and location.