BBC project to assess accuracy of long-range forecasts

Roger Harrabin spoke on the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 this morning about a project to assess the accuracy of long-range forecasts.

The Met Office hopes to work with the steering group to input into how this research activity is undertaken and help to ensure that the methodology, data and comparison is done in a way that is scientifically credible.

This project will have a number of challenges to overcome. Verification of probabilistic long-range forecasts for large geographical areas is a difficult exercise, fraught with scientific challenges. For example, you can not just verify the forecast from one season as this may give a biased result. This type of forecast must be verified over a long time period, possibly 15 years or longer, to provide a measure of true skill. There will also be challenges in deciding what information is useful in verifying a forecast that covers much of North West Europe.

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