So what happened to our summer?

28 08 2015

Our Chief Scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo OBE FRS reflects on this summer’s weather and what has influenced it:

No-one can deny that we have had a pretty disappointing summer with a lot of unsettled weather and only a few warm spells, especially through July and August. Our weather has been dominated by low pressure over and to the west of the country that has brought us periods of heavy rain from the south – what we call the Spanish Plume. So what has been happening?

If we look beyond our shores there have been some big changes in the global climate this year. El Niño is in full flight, disturbing weather patterns around the world. The low pressure that has dominated our weather is part of a pattern of waves in the jet stream around the world that has brought crippling heat waves to places like Poland and Japan. And, looking back over past El Niños, you could have expected that a more unsettled summer might be on the cards for the UK. Closer to home the North Atlantic is more than 2 degrees colder than normal. It seems quite likely that the unusually cold North Atlantic has strengthened and pushed our jet stream south, also contributing to the low pressure systems that have dominated our weather.

So could all this have been anticipated? Seasonal forecasts for this summer suggested that temperatures and rainfall would be near normal. However, as the season progressed all the leading models around the world failed to capture the signal for unsettled weather over the UK. We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done. On the other hand our day-to-day forecasts have been really successful in allowing us to warn of bad weather, highlighting yet again the benefits of our research that has delivered year-on-year and decade-by-decade improvements in forecasting skill. Our 5-day forecast is now as accurate as our 1-day forecast was when I started my career. This enables us to make so many decisions that keep us safe, protect our property, keep our infrastructure running and even when to go out and enjoy the sunshine!

All of this cannot happen without improvements to research and technology, and this week the first phase of our new supercomputer went live, five weeks ahead of schedule. This will enable us to provide even more accurate and relevant weather and climate forecasts to all of us, our government, emergency responders, and our many other customers at home and abroad.

The news that the BBC has decided that the Met Office won’t be their main weather provider when the current contract ends has raised the question of where will the new provider get their information from. It’s important to understand that no weather forecasting organization, whether it is a National Met Service like the Met Office or an independent company, can provide a service without a forecast, and that it is the leading meteorological agencies, like the Met Office, that build and deliver those forecasts. So whoever the BBC chooses to deliver their weather services in future, you can be sure that Met Office observations and forecasts will continue to be at the heart of them. We are committed to driving forward the skill and usefulness of our forecasts and ensuring that all of us benefit from the advances the Met Office makes in the coming years with our new supercomputer.





Highest temperatures and rainfall over the weekend

23 08 2015

Over the past 24 hours the weather has delivered a mixture of hot sunshine, thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain as we highlighted earlier in the week.

As expected, sunny skies and warm air being pushed northwards from the continent allowed temperatures to climb across central and eastern parts of the UK, reaching maximums in the high 20s and low 30s on Saturday with a humid feel:

Table showing Maximum temperatures for Saturday 22 August 2015

Location Maximum Temperature in C
Gravesend 30.9
Kew Gardens 30.9
Heathrow 30.7
St James’s Park 30.7
Northolt 30.6

These high temperatures set off two areas of thunderstorms, one over central southern England and another over the Midlands, moving into northern England. These storms caused localised surface water flooding and flooding of some properties in North Yorkshire as up to 30mm of rain fell in an hour. There were also impacts to the York-Leeds rail line.

Across the northwest of the UK it was fresher and mainly dry with some sunshine, while the areas in between were rather cloudy with some rain.

Overnight, the heavy, thundery downpours continued to move northwards, while heavy rain also spread into western parts of the UK. By this morning at 10am the rainfall totals for the 24 hours were as follows:

Table showing rainfall totals for the 24 hours up until 10am on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Bramham 62.6
Ryhill 54.6
Tredegar 40.6
Linton-on-Ouse 39.8
Scolton Country Park 36.8

During today, the heavy rain has continued to spread north and eastwards with a mixture of sunny spells and heavy showers following across the south. Ahead of this, temperatures across eastern England have again peaked in the mid to high 20s.

Table showing rainfall totals bwtween 10am and 4pm on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Hereford 20.8
Llanbrynmair 20.4
Sarn 17.8
Lake Vyrnwy 17.2
Porthmadog 17.2

The changeable weather will continue as we head into next week. Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued and everyone is encouraged to keep up to date with forecasts and warnings over the next few days and to make plans accordingly.





Rain or shine this weekend?

20 08 2015

You may have heard that this weekend could be cloudy and wet…or sunny and dry, that’s because as with other weekends this summer there has been some uncertainty in the forecast.

After a mixed week of some sunshine, rain and showers it looks like we’ll see more of the same over the weekend as a frontal system interacts with warm, humid air spreading northwards from the continent.

We are now fairly confident that on Saturday the UK will be split weather wise. There’ll be bright and breezy weather in the north west with a few showers. Meanwhile the south east will be warm and humid, perhaps hot with temperatures in the high 20s which could set off a few isolated thunderstorms. In between we expect to see a band of cloud and rain which could be heavy and persistent at times.

Overnight and into Sunday the wet weather is expected to become more widespread across England and Wales and move into Scotland with some heavy rain at times.

Sun23Aug12z

At the moment, central and western parts of the UK seem most likely to see the heaviest, most persistent rainfall as the frontal system pivots. However, this pivot position could change over the coming days, and this is critical because it will determine whether we need to issue weather warnings.

Once we have more certainty where the most persistent, heavy rain will be we will review whether a Met Office National Severe Weather Warning is required. Therefore, as ever, it is best to check the latest forecast if you have plans for the weekend.

Tony Berry, Visitor Experience Director at the National Trust said: “Despite the unsettled weather this weekend, there’s still loads to do at National Trust places across the country. From windswept coastal paths and woodlands to hundreds of historic houses and gardens, there’s always something to explore come rain or shine. We’ve got a whole host of activities to wear the kids out too, with everything from pirate adventures and fossil hunts (just remember to pack the waterproofs and wellies) to storytelling and wild art. And throughout August we’ll be bringing the coast to a whole host of cities across the UK in the form of a giant shell – Shellsphere – where passers-by will have the opportunity to see, smell, hear and taste the sea.”

Next week, we’ll continue to see a combination of drier, sunny days with cloudier spells and some rain or showers at times but it will be warmer than recently.





Win the chance to be a weather presenter for the day!

10 08 2015

Are you interested in why rain has fallen, where the sun is shining or how strong wind gusts are – and what this means? If so, the Met Office’s WOW – Weather Observation Website – enables you to be part of the weather forecast from your own back garden.

The Weather Observation Website is the perfect way to stay occupied during the summer holidays, whether you’re interested in being a meteorologist, presenter or scientist, or you just want to know what the weather is doing in your area.

Picture_blogWe’re giving one lucky winner (aged 8-13) the opportunity to present the daily weather forecast from the Met Office’s TV studio. The weather forecast is watched online by hundreds of thousands of people every day through the Met Office’s home page, social media and websites such as Yahoo! and MSN.

As part of the experience, the winner will get the lowdown on how the weather works from one of our meteorologists – detailing how forecasts are created and how this is turned into the weather report seen on TV.

After some training the winner will receive a tour of the Met Office – including getting to see our supercomputer; one of the top ten most powerful computers in the world. Finally, their skills will be put to the test in the Met Office’s media centre as they present the weather forecast for the following day.

Entrants need to go the Met Office WOW website to find the answer to this question:

What example search is on the WOW homepage? Is it:

  1. Exeter, UK
  2. Manchester, UK
  3. Bristol, UK

Answers must be sent to MetOfficecompetition@3-monkeys.co.uk, and we will contact the winner by the 1 September 2015 to confirm their prize.

The competition goes live today (10 August) and closes on 28 August 2015. To find out more about the competition, visit the First News website.

Entrants must be between 8 and 13 years of age and the winner must be accompanied by a parent, family member or legal guardian over the age of 18 years old.

Good luck!

Met Office Terms and conditions

  • You must be between the ages of 8-13 to enter the competition
  • Met Office will provide travel expenses up to a value of £100
  • Overnight accommodation will not be provided
  • The winner presenting the actual Met Office daily weather broadcast is subject to the winning child being able to present the weather in a clear and competent fashion, although it is also intended to entertain. The winner will be trained on the day to do present the weather, but if the final presentation is deemed to be of a standard which cannot be aired, the winner will instead receive a copy of their presentation to take home and keep
  • The Met Office will endeavour to accommodate the winner at a date suitable to the winner. However, they must be able to get to the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter on a weekday, for the hours of 10am-4pm before the end of November. The date must be mutually agreeable to the Met Office
  • The winner must be accompanied by a parent, family member or legal guardian over the age of 18 years old
  • The winner is able to bring a friend should they wish – however only the winning child will have the chance to present the daily weather broadcast




Big waves and blustery winds for western coasts

3 08 2015

A low pressure system off to the west of the UK is generating some big waves which are set to affect western coasts through today and Tuesday.

Waves of between 2-4 metres (about 6-12ft) are expected through the peak of the swell early on Tuesday at exposed beaches in the South West.

There will also be some fairly strong winds tomorrow, with the potential for gale force gusts around coasts in western areas – which may make for difficult conditions for those camping.

With many people around the coasts for summer holidays, people are being urged to take care.

A spokesman for the RNLI said: “Large waves could make some normal coastal activities we take for granted significantly more risky; the force of surging water or breaking waves can easily knock you over and quickly and drag you out of your depth and once in the water it can be difficult to get out.

“Those particularly at risk from these conditions are walkers on beaches or harbour walls when the water is high; spectators looking at the waves who get too close; and anglers fishing from rocks or exposed headlands.  With a low pressure and high winds forecast, areas that you may have considered safe before could be underwater when large waves come ashore.

“If you are planning a coastal activity, our advice is to respect the water;  watch the shore from a safe distance and assess the conditions – think about the risk before deciding if  you need to go closer.”

The waves are the result of a low pressure which is currently to the west of Ireland. As it has been tracking across the Atlantic its strong winds have been generating large waves.

Pressure chart showing the location of the low pressure at 0100 HRS on Monday morning, where it is generating large waves which are heading for western coasts.

Pressure chart showing the location of the low pressure at 0100 HRS on Monday morning, where it is generating large waves which are heading for western coasts.

As the low gets closer to the UK it will track to the north of Scotland, but the waves it has generated will continue marching east towards our coasts.

The size of the waves on any given beach will depend on a number of local factors.

Tides are not particularly large at the moment, meaning the risk of coastal flooding is low for the next few days despite the big waves.

A spokesman for the Environment Agency said: “The flood risk is very low for the next few days. We always monitor the situation closely, working alongside partners, including the Met Office and local authorities, and issue alerts and warnings if required. People and businesses can sign up to receive these free flood warnings and to check their flood risk via our daily flood risk forecast and live Flood Warnings map.”

With British and Irish waters being dangerously unpredictable, the RNLI have just launched a new campaign ‘Respect the Water’ to raise awareness of hidden dangers around our coastline.

For more information on ‘Respect the Water’ visit http://rnli.org/safety/respect-the-water/Pages/what-is-respect-the-water.aspx





Record hot to record cold in a July of extremes

3 08 2015

While this year’s July may not have broken any monthly records – it was book-ended with some localised daily records at both extremes of the temperature spectrum.

The month started with the highest recorded July temperature in our UK climate records with 36.7C recorded at Heathrow on 1 July.

Then on the last day of the month, we saw the opposite extreme – with a number of stations across the UK breaking their lowest recorded July temperature.

Some of these stations have fairly long records – below we’ve highlighted those stations which broke their July low record which have observations going back for 30 years or more.

STATION COUNTY PREVIOUS RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD DATE YEARS OF DATA TEMP 31/07/15
ALICE HOLT LODGE Surrey 3.9 03/07/1984 64 3.5
KEELE Staffordshire 5.2 16/07/2001 63 5
EXETER AIRPORT Devon 3.3 01/07/2011 50 2
CHIVENOR Devon 5.7 07/07/1996 38 5.6
PERSHORE Worcestershire 3 04/07/1965 36 2.7

These temperatures came about after several days of a northerly airflow which brought colder than average air over the UK. Clear skies allowed temperatures to drop rapidly overnight across many spots, leading to some of the localised records.

None of these new station records came close to breaking the all-time UK record for July of -2.5C which was set at both St Harmon (Powys) on 9 July 1986 and Lagganlia (Inverness-shire) on 15 July 1977. It’s worth noting here that lowest daily temperature records exclude stations above 500 metres above mean sea-level.

Other extremes for July 2015 are:

  • The wettest day was recorded at Cambridge Botanic Garden on the 16th, with 87.1mm of rain recorded in 24 hours. This is significantly more than the whole-month average for July at that station, which is 50.7mm.
  • The strongest gust was recorded at the Needles on the Isle of Wight on the 26th, with 60mph.
  • The Sunniest day was on Fair Isle, Shetland, on the 26th, with 16 hours of sunshine recorded.
  • The coldest temperature recorded during the month was a chilly -0.6C at Katesbridge in Down, Northern Ireland on 15 July – although this wasn’t a record for that station.
  • The warmest temperature was 36.7C recorded at Heathrow on 1 July – you can read more about that on our blog.




Wet and dull July

31 07 2015

UPDATE: The figures below have now been updated to include data from the 1-31 July 2015.


July 2015 was cool, dull and wet across the UK according to Met Office statistics for 1-31 July.

The month began with a record-breaking heatwave, with hot, humid air moving in from the continent.  36.7 °C was recorded at Heathrow 1 July, the highest recorded temperature in the UK since August 2003.

However the rest of the month has been characterized by cooler and often more unsettled conditions, particularly in the north, as a result of a westerly Atlantic air flow.  Rainfall has been above average in most areas, particularly across parts of East Anglia, central and eastern Scotland.

MeantempJuly2015 RainfallJuly2015

minimum temperature mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
Jul 1 – 31 2015 Act (°C)   Diff from avg (°C)   Act (°C) Diff from avg (°C) Act (hrs) % of avg Act (mm) % of avg
UK 10.3 -0.6 14.4 -0.7 164.8 96 109.5 140
England 11.2 -0.4 15.8 -0.5 191.9 99   82.3 131
Wales 10.8 -0.3 14.4 -0.8 175.1 98 112.4 121
Scotland 8.7 -0.9 12.2 -1.0 125.3 89 152.4 153
N Ireland 9.6 -1.1 13.3 -1.3 117.4 84 116.8 144

The south-east has seen some drier and more settled weather with temperatures near average, although there has also been some changeable weather here with over 20mm of rain falling on the 24 July and some cooler temperatures and strong winds on 26 and 27 July.

Elsewhere temperatures have been below average, particularly in the west and north, and it has been a rather dull month with sunshine totals being below average across much of the country.

Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910. You can explore our climate data on our website.





Summer weather to return as we head into weekend

28 07 2015

More summer-like weather will return to the UK with conditions and temperatures due to improve as we head into the weekend.

This will come as welcome news to many after a spell of disappointing weather over the past few days which has seen prolonged rainfall and some unseasonably strong winds.

Through to Thursday the UK will be seeing a flow of cool air from the north which is helping to keep day and night temperatures slightly below normal. Overnight temperatures in some rural areas could fall to a few degrees above freezing – with a few isolated spots even seeing frost early on Thursday.

This is all set to change, however, as the northerly flow will be cut off to allow westerly winds, and milder air, to push in later on Thursday.

This will enable temperatures to recover to more normal levels for the time of year across many parts of the country, although some cool nights remain likely.

Colour chart showing temperature change over the next few days, with cooler air (green) making way for warmer conditions (yellow/orange).

Colour chart showing temperature change over the next few days, with cooler air (green) making way for warmer conditions (yellow/orange).

At the same time, high pressure is also set to establish across most of England and Wales to bring lighter winds and more in the way of sunshine for Friday

Scotland and Northern Ireland will continue to see some showers, and these may affect other northern areas into Saturday, though conditions will be markedly improved on recent days for many.

Over the weekend, many parts of England and Wales will be mainly dry with sunny spells. In light winds it will feel much warmer than of late, with temperatures back into the twenties across much of central and southern England.

It may also warm up further across southern and eastern areas on Sunday and into Monday.

Malcolm Roughead, Chief Executive of VisitScotland said: “It’s great to hear the weather is improving, however, come rain or shine, Scotland is a beautiful place to explore! Our surveys continually show that the weather is of little consequence to visitors. Whether it’s stormy clouds over the mountains of Glencoe or blue skies over coral beaches in Skye, visitors are in awe of the breathtaking scenery and visit and re-visit in their droves for the landscapes, cities, culture and friendly people.”

“With lots of exciting events and activities planned across the country including, of course, the world-famous Edinburgh Festivals next month, we know visitors will have an experience of a lifetime in Scotland this summer regardless of the weather.”

James Berresford, Chief Executive for VisitEngland, said: “The forecast of good weather is great, especially with the summer season upon us. The release of our latest figures today reveal a strong performance for domestic tourism in the first quarter of this year so we hope this will continue over the summer months. We know holidays in England generate high levels of satisfaction for visitors, and with world class indoor and outdoor attractions, fantastic events and festivals across the country there is still time to plan a last minute short break or day trip in England whatever the weather.”

While we will have a spell of good weather and more summer-like temperatures for many into the weekend, it looks as if more unsettled conditions will move in from the west later on Sunday. These conditions will spread slowly east on Monday, with all areas seeing more unsettled conditions by Tuesday.

Temperatures are likely to be closer to normal by then.

Stay up to date with our forecasts to see how the wather is set to improve in your area.





Are we set for record July rainfall?

27 07 2015

While July has seen a good deal of dry and bright weather, we’ve also seen a few periods of heavy rainfall.

Whether through intense thundery downpours or prolonged periods of rain such as seen in southern parts of the UK on Friday last week, these events have dramatically pushed up the rainfall totals for the month.

This has led to speculation about whether this July could be on course to be the wettest on record. However, a quick look at the statistics shows that while it has certainly been wet, we’re unlikely to break any national records this month.

Provisional rainfall statistics for July 2015 so far suggest that with 5 days of the month remaining much of the country has already received close to or above average rainfall for the month – but we’re some way off breaking the records for each country.

Table showing rainfall figures so far this month compared to average and the records:

Rainfall 1-26 Jul 2015 Current record July 1981 – 2010 average
UK 93 mm 146 mm (2009) 78 mm
England 70 mm 129 mm (2009) 63 mm
Scotland 128 mm 186 mm (1940) 100 mm
Wales 102 mm 241 mm (1939) 93 mm
Northern Ireland 95 mm 186 mm (1936) 81 mm

The wettest regions compared to average have so far this month been eastern Scotland, East Anglia and the south west of England. If records are going to be broken they will most likely be localised rather than national records.

Even those regional records are far from a sure thing. The weather is generally improving for most parts of the country and high pressure, bringing more settled conditions, is expected to build towards the back end of the week.

This means the last few days of this month are unlikely to add big rainfall numbers to the totals we have so far.

Map showing 1-26 July 2015 rainfall compared to the 1981-2010 average. Most places have received their full-month average (shown in white), while the darker blue areas have seen significantly more than average already.

Map showing 1-26 July 2015 rainfall compared to the 1981-2010 average. Most places have received their full-month average (shown in white), while the darker blue areas have seen significantly more than average already.





Met Office Forecasting Experiment

27 07 2015

Forecasting the weather accurately relies on a combination of cutting edge forecasting models developed by our research scientists and the skill of interpreting these models by expert meteorologists.

We’ve recently completed a “Forecasting Experiment” which brought together our research and operational expertise for two weeks.

The aim of this was to intensively evaluate and develop our current and experimental models, forecasting techniques, new scientific products and the interaction between them. The overall aim was to evaluate our forecasting capability so we can identify ways to continue improving the way we do things.

Experts from a range of backgrounds analyse model output in the 'Forecast Experiment'

Experts from a range of backgrounds analyse model output in the ‘Forecast Experiment’

We have a number of computer models which can represent weather processes which occur on ever smaller scales.

These models cover different areas of the globe: from the entire world, down to a model which is confined to the UK area and even an experimental model which looks at the weather over an area the size of a large city.

All these models are incredibly complex and have strengths and weaknesses which can be difficult to determine.

By bringing together specialists with considerably different skills and experience in the Forecasting Experiment, it is easier to identify characteristics of the models. This can then inform better interpretation of all the information available to forecasters and can also help with planning improvements in future generations of the models.

The Forecasting Experiment this year was focused on summer weather over the UK. The experiment ran over the end of June and beginning of July.

The first week was characterised by a succession of weather fronts moving eastwards from the North Atlantic over the UK. The second week was dominated by very warm air from Spain moving north across the UK and bringing the hottest July day on record (36.7 °C at Heathrow) with severe thunderstorms to much of the UK, especially the North of England and Scotland.

This mixture of weather types allowed researchers to test models and techniques under a whole range of summer conditions, including high impact weather.

Adrian Semple,who led the experiment, said: “Not only did this experiment promote an exchange of skills, knowledge and experience between the participants, but it also provided a unique environment in which we could critically assess the way in which we produce our forecasts. The experiment will therefore have immediate effects as skills and knowledge are shared and spread throughout the Met Office, but the results can also be used to influence our longer term scientific research and improve future forecasting models.








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