December on track to be the mildest on record

24 12 2015

Mowing the lawn has been the reality for some so far this December, with unseasonably high temperatures. It looks as though the UK is on track to break the record for the warmest December since records began in 1910 and some areas have also seen their wettest.

The latest temperatures for December (1st to 22nd) reveal that the month so far has been far warmer than normal. Early provisional figures* reveal that the mean temperature for December in the UK has so far has been 8.1C, which is 4.2C above the long-term average for the month and well above the previous record of 6.9C set in 1934.

The December figure for England has so far been 9.5C, that’s 5.1C above the same long-term average and 2C above the record of 7.5C set in 1934, and the other UK nations have been similarly warm:

  • the mean temperature of 9.3C in Wales, higher than the previous post-1910 record of 7.5C set in 1934, and 4.8C above average
  • the mean temperature of 5.6°C in Scotland is 2.8C above average, but is so far slightly lower than the previous December record of 5.8C set in 1988
  • the mean temperature of 7.5°C in Northern Ireland is 3C higher than average, and marginally higher than the 1988 December record

Tim Legg of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre said: “With no sign of any significantly cold weather to come in the remaining 9 days of the month, we’re on track to break the warmest December record which was set back in 1934.”

Rainfall 1 - 22 Dec 2015

Rainfall 1 – 22 Dec 2015

MeanTemperature Dec 1 - 22, 2015

MeanTemperature Dec 1 – 22, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rainfall and sunshine figures so far confirm December has been dull and wet across most of the UK, with sunshine well down on the long-term average while precipitation (which of course has fallen mainly as rain) has been well above.  Some places have seen record breaking rainfall:

  • Cumberland 310.9mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 248.2mm 2006),
  • Westmorland 474.4mm 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 365.1mm 2006)
  • Dumfriesshire 314mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 307.5mm 2013)
  • Carnarvonshire 441.3mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 376.6mm 1965)
  • Roxburghshire 237.8mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 219.7mm 2013)

 

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-22 Dec 2015 Act Anom Act Anom   Act Anom
  Deg C Deg C hours % mm %
UK 8.1 4.2 17.7 43 148.0 123
England 9.5 5.1 19.8 42 86.5 99
Wales 9.3 4.8 16.3 39 237.1 143
Scotland 5.6 2.8 14.1 46 229.1 140
N Ireland 7.5 3.0 20.7 56 130.4 114

 

You can find out what the rest of the year has been like on our climate pages.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.





Mild start to December

16 12 2015

Looking at figures dating back to 1960 this has been the mildest start to December for Wales (8.7C), south west England (9.8C) and south east England (10C), and the 4th warmest for the UK as a whole (7.1C), with 1979, 2000 and 2006 being marginally milder.

Early provisional figures* (1-14 December) show the first half of December has been very mild across England and Wales with the maximum daily temperatures 3.2C above average for the UK as a whole.

However there has been a sharp north-south contrast at times with much colder air over Scotland and some frosts.  Elsewhere the humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has remained similar to last month: cloudy with very few clear nights, mild nights and very little sunshine for most areas.

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

 

The main talking point so far this month has been Storm Desmond, bringing record-breaking rainfall totals over the Lake District and a lot of rain over many northern areas.

Around 200% of the whole month’s normal rainfall has already fallen in a few places in the Pennines and the Lake District, it has also been wet in Snowdonia and parts of southern & central Scotland.  There has been near-normal rainfall across many other areas, and actually below average, for this point in the month, in parts of southern England.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-14 Dec 2015 Act deg C Anom deg C   Act Hours Anom %   Act mm Anom %  
Regions            
UK 7.1 3.2 13.4 33 100.2 83
England 8.6 4.3 15.7 33 56.7 65
Wales 8.7 4.2 11.0 26 140.9 85
Scotland 4.2 1.4 10.4 34 161.6 99
N Ireland 6.1 1.6 13.1 35 99.0 87

 

Despite the mild start to winter following on from a mild autumn, it looks like 2015 will be an average year as far as weather is concerned.

This year’s damp and cool spring and summer mean that despite the current mild spell, the rainfall, temperature and sunshine statistics for the year as a whole are all hovering around average, with just 17 days left until the end of the year.

Indications are that the unsettled weather will continue through Christmas and into the new year. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected across all parts, with the heaviest and most persistent rain in the north and west, and the best of the drier conditions across south-east England.

We can expect gales at times, again especially in the north and west. Temperatures will be closer to average than of late, but still generally above, with any snowfall restricted to the high ground of Scotland and northern England.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.





Did climate change have an impact on Storm Desmond?

7 12 2015

The exceptional rainfall in Cumbria over the past few days saw the fall of numerous records and has led many to ask whether it is linked to climate change. The records are based on digitised data going back to the 19th Century.

A gauge at Honister Pass recorded 341.4mm of rainfall in the 24-hours up to 1800 GMT on 5 December 2015, making for a new UK record for any 24-hour period. This beat the previous record of 316.4mm set in November 2009 at Seathwaite, also in Cumbria. A new 48-hour record (from 0900 to 0900 hrs) was also set, when 405mm was recorded at Thirlmere in Cumbria in just 38 hrs.

The weekend’s record rainfall was associated with a persistent, south-westerly flow bringing a ‘river of moisture’ from as far away as the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Ocean temperatures in the West Atlantic are currently well above normal and may well have contributed to the very high levels of moisture in the air masses which unleashed rainfall on the Cumbrian fells.

Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist, says “It’s too early to say definitively whether climate change has made a contribution to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors.

“However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems, suggests there may be a link between climate change and record-breaking winter rainfall. Last month, we published a paper showing that for the same weather pattern, an extended period of extreme UK winter rainfall is now seven times more likely than in a world without human emissions of greenhouse gases.”





Wind and rain records for Storm Desmond

6 12 2015

Storm Desmond, the fourth named storm of the season, bought widespread heavy rain and storm force winds to areas of northern England and Scotland.

The rainfall experienced in many parts of the north west of the UK is thought to have been exceptional and early provisional rainfall statistics indicate many places have seen totals widely over 180 to 200 mm in the Lake District. It is thought very locally event totals may be in excess of 300 mm locally.  The Met Office issued a Red ‘take action’ severe weather warning for rainfall yesterday, the first red warning since February 2014.

48 Hour UK Rainfall Total 0900 4th December – 0900 6th December
Site Name Area Rainfall Total mm
Shap Cumbria 262.6
Keswick Cumbria 178.4
Blencathra Cumbria 174.8
Capel Curig Gwynedd 170.6
Tyndrum Perthshire 141
Eskdalemuir Dumfriesshire 139.2
Bainbridge North Yorkshire 136
Cluanie Inn Ross & Cromarty 132.8

The rainfall caused some rivers to flood and homes had to be evacuated in areas of Cumbria and in Northumberland. The Environment Agency still has a number of flood warnings in place.

An Amber ‘be prepared’ warning for wind was in place for parts of  SE Scotland and NE England as wind speeds were expected that could potentially cause disruption, structural damage and disrupt transport.  Gusts of over 80 mph were experienced in more exposed locations, with the strongest recorded gust of 99 mph at Great Dun Fell, a high level site in Cumbria at 847m.

Max Gust Speeds 5 December 1800 – 6 December 0900
Site Name Area Max Gust mph
Capel Curig Gwynedd 81
Needles Old Battery Isle of Wight 78
High Bradfield South Yorkshire 77
Redesdale Camp Northumberland 73
Loftus Cleveland 70
Aberdaron Gwynedd 69
Charterhall Berwickshire 68
Valley Gwynedd 67

 

There are no weather warnings in place for the rest of today (Sunday), however the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) still have a number of flood warnings in place as water courses are still reacting to yesterday’s rainfall. A warning is in place for Monday and will be updated as required.

You can keep up to date with the latest forecast using our five day forecast pages, the latest weather warnings on our National Severe Weather Warnings pages and find out what to do in severe weather.





This weekend’s UK rainfall

15 11 2015

Following the heavy rainfall over the weekend, here are the latest rainfall totals:

Site Name Area 48hr Rainfall total 9am Sat to 9am Mon (mm)
Capel Curig Gwynedd 106.0
Lake Vyrnwy Powys 82.0
Keswick Cumbria 81.6
Blencathra Cumbria 72.6
Tyndrum Perthshire 72.4
Shap Cumbria 69.8
Pately Bridge North Yorkshire 69.2
Bala Gwynedd 66.0  

With more unsettled weather on the way this week bringing further rain and strong winds, keep up to date with the latest forecast for your area and see the latest National Severe Weather Warnings.


 

Heavy rain has fallen widely throughout the night across much of north-west England, with the heaviest being over some of the higher ground in Cumbria.  The Environment Agency had recorded rainfall totals of 178mm in 12 hours by 5 am this morning in Cumbria.

National Severe Weather Warnings, still in place for parts of northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, are valid until this evening when the rain will start to clear out to the southeast.

Rainfall radar image 10pm 14 November 2015

Rainfall radar image 10pm 14 November 2015

The Environment Agency, Natural Resource Wales (NRW) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) are continually monitoring the flood risk as this rainfall makes its way through the river network.

The amber warning issued for parts of North Wales has now been lifted. However a yellow severe weather warning is still in place until 10 pm this evening. Met Office rain gauges recorded 76mm in the 24 hour period up to midday today (Sunday) at Capel Curig in Snowdonia.

Warnings are constantly under review and adjusted should the weather system change or develop and potential impacts vary.

Regions/Country  Rainfall gauge  24hr rainfall total 9am Sat to 9am Sun
Cumbria Keswick 60mm
Cumbria Spadeadam 45.8mm
North Yorkshire Grimwith 65.4mm
West Yorkshire Thornton Moor 70mm
Lancashire Colne 60.2mm
Wales Capel Curig 67.2mm
Northern  Ireland Castlederg 42,6mm
Scotland Threave 48mm

Many parts of northern and central UK will continue to see rain today, some of it heavy, especially within the warning areas.  You are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast information for your area so you can plan and prepare for the expected weather.

The Environment Agency, NRW and SEPA are still concerned that additional rainfall on to already saturated ground could well still lead to flooding and you are advised to keep up to date with the latest flood warnings and advise.

This weekends heavy rainfall heralds the start of an unsettled week as a series of low pressure systems are expected to move across the country.  The first will arrive late Monday before another brings stronger winds and rain on Tuesday and another system brings rain on Wednesday.  National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for some of these systems given the now saturated ground over parts of the UK and will be updated in the coming days.  Meanwhile the weather is expected to turn colder for many by the end of the week.





Warm, sunny and dry October

30 10 2015

Early provisional figures (1-28 October) show sunshine and temperatures were above normal in almost all places this month while rainfall has been below average, especially in western areas.

Much of October has been relatively settled, with high pressure dominating our weather. This has led to many dry, sunny days but cold nights and even a few frosts (coldest so far -5.0 °C at Braemar on 17th).  Although the end of the month so far has been more unsettled, it has remained milder than average.

Rainfall has been below average, especially in the west of the UK, with only around 30% of average in eastern parts of Wales.  The exception to this has been a band from Cambridgeshire to North Yorkshire and around Aberdeen where rainfall has been around average (at the time these figures were compiled we would expect around 90% of the month’s total rainfall and sunshine to have happened).

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 rainfall

1-28 October 2015 rainfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum temperatures (daytime) have been above normal in almost all areas for October, with north west Scotland being 2°C above, while south-east England stayed around average.  However cooler nights have led to Mean temperatures (average of daytime and night-time temperatures) over most of England and Wales being near average, but a degree or so above in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-28 Oct 2015 Act Anom Act Anom Act Anom
  degC degC hours % mm %
Regions            
UK 9.9 0.4 88.5 96 61.6 48
England 10.6 0.2 89.5 87 50.5 55
Wales 10.0 0.1 89.0 96 64.3 38
Scotland 8.6 0.7 85.4 113 78.4 45
N Ireland 9.8 0.4 94.7 108 64.8 54

 

Meanwhile Halloween starts off cloudy or foggy for many with some patchy rain across northern parts.  However this clears leaving a mild day with patchy sunshine for many in the afternoon.   Sunday, 1st November, looks much the same staying mostly dry with some sunny spells.  Check out our five day forecast for more details.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

 

 





How much does the weather influence what we put in our grocery basket?

14 10 2015

What do you think determines what we buy when we go food shopping? Whilst the odd item may catch our eye and lead to one of those ‘impulse purchases’, British consumers can in some ways be rather predictable when it comes to what influences their choices.

For example, when Christmas comes around, it isn’t hard to predict that we’re going to be looking for turkey and sprouts. And when the economy is doing well, the chances are we’ll be buying a few more bottles of expensive wine.

But one of the most important factors – in fact one which around half of the decision makers at UK retailers and suppliers would count in their top three – is the weather. And whilst Santa’s sleigh may come to town once a year like clockwork, us Brits – more so than most – know that the weather doesn’t quite work in such a predictable manner.

Capture

The weather can have a significant impact on what we choose to buy when in store, and ultimately on retailer performance. For example, a four degree increase in temperature can lead to sales of burgers increasing by nearly half, according to one leading supermarket.

When the weather changes, retailers risk losing millions through low stock levels, empty shelves and disappointed customers. It can lead to unexpected fluctuations in store footfall and sales, shortages in availability, and impact the costs and efficiencies of the whole supply chain – this is particularly true for fresh, chilled and seasonal products.

We wanted to understand a bit more about how the UK grocery sector as a whole accounts for the weather in its planning, so we have developed a new report based on opinions of key executives and managers across over 200 food suppliers and retailers in the UK. The report looks at just how much the weather impacts their business – and how they use weather products to make those all-important stock predictions. After all, no one likes going to the supermarket to find that their favourite food item is sold out.





Hurricane Joaquin lashes the Bahamas but will it hit the USA?

1 10 2015

In recent months attention has focused on the very active tropical cyclone season in the Pacific Ocean brought about primarily by the strong El Niño which has developed this year. Meanwhile, the Atlantic has been very quiet with most tropical storms remaining fairly weak and only two reaching hurricane strength until now.

However, Joaquin has become the third hurricane of the Atlantic season and the second to achieve ‘major’ status – category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Joaquin is currently lashing the Bahamas with winds in excess of 100 mph near the centre of the hurricane. A storm surge of over two metres is possible and rainfall totals could be as high as 500 mm. Once the hurricane starts moving away from the islands the big question is whether it will make landfall over the US east coast.

Hurricane Joaquin at 1237 UTC on 01 October 2015 Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory [local copy at http://www-nwp/~frjh/tropicalcyclone/images/nhem15/joaquin_20151001_1237z.png]

Hurricane Joaquin at 1237 UTC on 01 October 2015
Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

The forecasting conundrum

Joaquin is currently slow moving near the Bahamas and all computer models agree that a gradual turn north will happen in about two days time. However, beyond this point there is great uncertainty as to what will happen. Joaquin is being pulled in two directions. A developing trough of low pressure over the USA would act to pull Joaquin westwards towards the US coast. However, an area of low pressure to the east – including the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida – would act to pull Joaquin east away from the USA. The situation is finely balanced and any of several outcomes could happen.

One scenario is that Joaquin could make a turn north-westwards and make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina at the weekend. Computer models are now mostly moving away from this as a likely outcome. Alternatively, Joaquin could take a mostly northwards track and reach New York and New England by early next week then continue up the eastern seaboard of Canada. Finally, a third scenario allows for the possibility that Joaquin could turn north-eastwards and avoid a US landfall altogether. We recommend that a close watch is kept on guidance issued by the National Hurricane Center in coming days for updates on which scenario is the most likely to occur.

Irrespective of whether or where Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall on the US east coast, large amounts of rain are expected in this area in the coming few days due to a slow-moving frontal zone. The impact of this will be exacerbated if Hurricane Joaquin does take a turn towards the USA in the next few days with further heavy rain accompanied by strong winds and a storm surge.

 Latest forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin from the National Hurricane Center

Latest forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin from the National Hurricane Center

Recent history of US landfalling hurricanes

Hurricane strikes on the USA have been fairly infrequent in recent years – particularly those at the stronger end of the scale. In 2014 Arthur crossed the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a category 2 hurricane. Going back to 2012, Isaac came ashore over Louisiana as a minimal category 1 hurricane. In 2011 Irene made landfall on the east coast of the USA also as a category 1 hurricane. The USA avoided hurricane strikes altogether in 2010 and 2009, but in 2008 three made landfall, the most significant of which was Hurricane Ike which caused a huge storm surge as it came ashore over Texas as a category 2 hurricane. However, you have to go back to 2005 to find the last ‘major’ hurricane strike on the USA (category 3 or above), when Hurricane Wilma hit Florida.

Hurricane Sandy (sometimes referred to as ‘Superstorm Sandy’) also caused much devastation to parts of the USA east coast in 2012. It is ranked as the second most costly hurricane in US history, although technically ceased to be a hurricane just prior to the time it made landfall.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Will Joaquin affect the UK?

With the confidence around the exact track of Joaquin being so low, it is currently too early to tell if this system will affect the weather in the UK. There is, however, already high confidence that we will return to more autumnal and unsettled conditions across the UK early next week. Make sure you keep up-to-date with the Met Office five-day forecast.





So what happened to our summer?

28 08 2015

Our Chief Scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo OBE FRS reflects on this summer’s weather and what has influenced it:

No-one can deny that we have had a pretty disappointing summer with a lot of unsettled weather and only a few warm spells, especially through July and August. Our weather has been dominated by low pressure over and to the west of the country that has brought us periods of heavy rain from the south – what we call the Spanish Plume. So what has been happening?

If we look beyond our shores there have been some big changes in the global climate this year. El Niño is in full flight, disturbing weather patterns around the world. The low pressure that has dominated our weather is part of a pattern of waves in the jet stream around the world that has brought crippling heat waves to places like Poland and Japan. And, looking back over past El Niños, you could have expected that a more unsettled summer might be on the cards for the UK. Closer to home the North Atlantic is more than 2 degrees colder than normal. It seems quite likely that the unusually cold North Atlantic has strengthened and pushed our jet stream south, also contributing to the low pressure systems that have dominated our weather.

So could all this have been anticipated? Seasonal forecasts for this summer suggested that temperatures and rainfall would be near normal. However, as the season progressed all the leading models around the world failed to capture the signal for unsettled weather over the UK. We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done. On the other hand our day-to-day forecasts have been really successful in allowing us to warn of bad weather, highlighting yet again the benefits of our research that has delivered year-on-year and decade-by-decade improvements in forecasting skill. Our 5-day forecast is now as accurate as our 1-day forecast was when I started my career. This enables us to make so many decisions that keep us safe, protect our property, keep our infrastructure running and even when to go out and enjoy the sunshine!

All of this cannot happen without improvements to research and technology, and this week the first phase of our new supercomputer went live, five weeks ahead of schedule. This will enable us to provide even more accurate and relevant weather and climate forecasts to all of us, our government, emergency responders, and our many other customers at home and abroad.

The news that the BBC has decided that the Met Office won’t be their main weather provider when the current contract ends has raised the question of where will the new provider get their information from. It’s important to understand that no weather forecasting organization, whether it is a National Met Service like the Met Office or an independent company, can provide a service without a forecast, and that it is the leading meteorological agencies, like the Met Office, that build and deliver those forecasts. So whoever the BBC chooses to deliver their weather services in future, you can be sure that Met Office observations and forecasts will continue to be at the heart of them. We are committed to driving forward the skill and usefulness of our forecasts and ensuring that all of us benefit from the advances the Met Office makes in the coming years with our new supercomputer.





Met Office in the news – BBC weather contract

23 08 2015

You may have seen reports in the media today that the Met Office won’t be the BBCs main weather provider when the current contract ends.

Obviously everyone at the Met Office is disappointed that we won’t be supplying weather presenters and graphics to the BBC in the future.

MetOffice

As a trusted British institution we work at the heart of Government, with a wide range of customers, and with emergency responders to maintain resilience and public safety. We will be working with the BBC and others to ensure the nations official weather warnings are broadcast in a consistent way; and that our advice underpins forecasts when it matters most. We are also supporting our popular team of presenters to ensure clarity on their future.

Steve Noyes, our Operations and Customer Services Director, said: “Nobody knows Britain’s weather better and, during our long relationship with the BBC, we’ve revolutionised weather communication to make it an integral part of British daily life.

“This is disappointing news, but we will be working to make sure that vital Met Office advice continues to be a part of BBC output.

“Ranked No 1 in the world for forecast accuracy, people trust our forecasts and warnings. There are lots of ways to access these both now and in the future – via the Met Office app, website, and video forecasts, as well as through television and other digital news providers.”

Much of our 93 years of working with the BBC has been based solely on radio and television forecasts. The world is changing though, and nowadays people access weather information in many ways.

As ever, everyone will be able to access trusted Met Office forecasts and warnings on our own digital channels like our app and mobile website, delivered as text, symbols and videos. You can embed that information easily in your own website too. We continue to provide our expert forecasts on independent television networks and there are also now many other news organisations increasingly sharing Met Office content online.








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