Pali becomes an unusual January North Pacific Hurricane

12 01 2016

The tropical cyclone season in the North Pacific in 2015 was extremely active, primarily due to the ongoing strong El Niño. Numerous records were broken across the region and in the central North Pacific (an area bounded by the 140°W and 180°W lines of longitude) it was the most active season on record by all measures.

By December, tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere usually comes to an end, but on New Year’s Eve an unusual tropical depression formed in the central North Pacific very close to the equator. The depression dissipated early in January, but was a precursor of what was to come a week later. Tropical Storm Pali formed in the far southwestern corner of the central North Pacific region at a location closer to the equator than any other storm on record in the western hemisphere (east of the International Dateline).

Pali has fluctuated in strength in the last few days as it has drifted northwards, but a recent burst of intensification has resulted in it becoming the earliest central North Pacific hurricane to form in a calendar year on record. Pali beats the previous record set by Hurricane Ekeka in late January 1992.

Hurricane Pali at 0330 UTC on 12 January 2016 Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Pali at 0330 UTC on 12 January 2016
Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

Although Hurricane Pali is no threat to any major land masses it will be watched closely in the next few days due to an unusual track being forecast by several computer models. It is currently predicted to sink southwards towards the equator and some models even suggest it could reach or even cross the equator as a tropical storm.

Conventional understanding of the science behind storm formation tells us that cyclones rarely form close to the equator since the Coriolis Effect, which induces rotation, is so small. In recent history there have been a couple of notable storm formations close to the equator. In 2001 Tropical Storm Vamei developed at latitude 1.5°N close to Singapore and in 2004 Tropical Storm Agni was briefly observed to cross the equator into the southern hemisphere as a weak depression before developing into a tropical storm at latitude 0.7°N in the Indian Ocean. However, there is no observed precedent of a full blown hurricane such as Pali moving close to the equator. Thus Pali should provide a useful insight into the behaviour cyclones in what is usually a cyclone-free zone.

Official warnings for the tropical cyclones in the central North Pacific are produced by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Late Season Hurricane Sandra Heading for Mexico

27 11 2015

The North Pacific Ocean has seen exceptional levels of tropical cyclone activity this season as reported in this blog over the last few months. By the end of November it is usual to see the season drawing to a close in most parts of the northern hemisphere. However, the unusual conditions in the eastern North Pacific due to the ongoing El Niño has resulted in a couple of late season tropical cyclones.

Tropical Storm Rick was relatively weak, but has been immediately followed by Sandra which rapidly strengthened into a category 4 hurricane with winds near 145 mph and a central pressure of 935 mb. The last time a hurricane formed so late in the season in the eastern North Pacific was back in 1983 when Hurricane Winnie developed in December. However, Sandra is much stronger than Winnie and has become the strongest hurricane on record to have formed in the region so late in the season.

It is barely a month since Hurricane Patricia came ashore over Mexico as a category 5 hurricane producing a narrow swathe of severe damage to mostly rural areas, but avoiding major cities. Sandra is forecast to make landfall on Saturday, but unlike Patricia is expected to rapidly weaken as it approaches the coast. Thus severe impacts from wind are not expected, although the storm could still produce a lot of heavy rain as it comes ashore. If Sandra crosses the coast as a tropical storm it will be the latest in the year that a landfall has ever been recorded over Mexico.

Hurricane Sandra at 1445 UTC on 26 November 2015 Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Sandra at 1445 UTC on 26 November 2015
Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Sandra has added to an already exceptionally active tropical cyclone season seen across the northern hemisphere (particularly the Pacific Ocean). This high activity is primarily as a result of the strong El Niño which has existed for the last few months. This has raised sea surface temperatures well above normal in parts of the Pacific Ocean and also made atmospheric conditions conducive to development of frequent and strong tropical cyclones.

Across the northern hemisphere as a whole there have now been 26 tropical cyclones which have attained category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (one-minute averaged winds of 130 mph or more). This is eight more than the previous record set in 2004. In the eastern North Pacific (east of the Dateline) there have been 10 hurricanes reaching this intensity which is two more than the previous record set in 1997. It must be noted that records relate to the era of reliable satellite data coverage from the 1960s and 1970s onwards.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Cyclone Chapala brings flooding rains to Yemen

3 11 2015

Our blog yesterday reported on the imminent landfall of Cyclone Chapala which was located in the Gulf of Aden. As expected the cyclone made landfall over Yemen in the early hours of Tuesday UK time. Winds averaged over one minute were estimated to be near 75 mph at landfall which is equivalent to a category 1 hurricane.

However, it is the rainfall which poses the biggest threat. The coastal strip of Yemen is usually very dry with approximately 50mm (2”) rain per year. Chapala is likely to produce 100-200mm widely and as much as 500mm in some locations. Although Chapala has weakened to a tropical storm it has become very slow-moving near the coast which increases the threat from heavy rainfall.

Cyclone Chapala at 0715 UTC on 03 November 2015 Image courtesy of NASA

Cyclone Chapala at 0715 UTC on 03 November 2015
Image courtesy of NASA

Observing stations are few and far between in this part of the world, but images and videos being posted in online media indicate that flooding is occurring in populated areas under the path of the cyclone such as the city of Al Mukalla.

The last time heavy rains from a tropical cyclone occurred in this region was 2008. This event caused much destruction and loss of life even though it was only classified as a tropical depression. Cyclone Chapala was a much stronger cyclone and thus has a much greater potential for disruption and damage.

Given the disruption caused by Cyclone Chapala, there is heightened interest in an area of disturbed weather developing to the west of India. This has the potential to develop into a tropical storm and latest forecasts suggest it will move west across the Arabian Sea. It is too early to be sure about the likely intensity and precise track of this disturbance, but it is being watched closely for further development.

Image of Arabian Sea at 1130 UTC on 03 November 2015 Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Image of Arabian Sea at 1130 UTC on 03 November 2015
Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea are produced by the India Meteorological Department. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





The latest on Hurricane Patricia

24 10 2015

Hurricane Patricia made landfall at 6.15pm local time on 23rd October as a category 5 hurricane near Cuixmala, Jalisco, on the pacific coast of Mexico.  This is a relatively low populated area, 55 miles from the nearest significant city Manzanillo.  Maximum sustained wind speeds at landfall were estimated by satellite to be 165mph with gusts of 200mph.  100mm of rain has fallen widely in just 24 hours, with up to 500mm in isolated spots and an estimated 5m to 7m storm surge affected coastal areas. Consequently there has been a significant risk of coastal and flash flooding, with mud and landslides.

Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains of Mexico today and to dissipate as it tracks north east, though further significant rainfall and winds, along with flooding, is expected along the route in the next 12 hours.

Currently Patricia is expected to decrease, becoming a tropical storm, over central northern Mexico with wind speeds of 60 mph and gusts 85 mph later today.

Image courtesy of National Hurricane Centre

Image courtesy of National Hurricane Centre

 

Prior to landfall aircraft flew through the storm and recorded maximum sustained winds of 200mph and barometric pressure of 879Hpa, thus becoming the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the western hemisphere and the first to be recorded at over 200mph.

This will have to be verified by the World Meteorological Organisation before being considered official.

Hurricane Patricia is currently around 85 miles north-northwest of Manzanillo and is traveling at around 20 mph. Patricia has begun to decay and has sustained winds of approximately 130 mph and gust of of 160 mph, making it a category 3 storm with still potentially destructive winds.

A total of 50,000 people are estimated to have been evacuated so far ahead of Hurricane Patricia in three Mexican states. The Met Office has been, and will continue to, provide regular up dates to the FCO to best advise UK citizens in the affected area.

As it it moves across the country moisture and energy from Hurricane Patricia is expected to enhance a weather system across Texas this weekend and early next week boosting its potential rainfall (200 to 450mm over Sat/Sun) and flood threat.  This could potentially affect this weekends F1 Grand Prix in Austin, Texas.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

 

 





Typhoon Koppu heads to the Philippines

16 10 2015

The very active tropical cyclone season in the North Pacific Ocean is continuing with the development of typhoons Koppu and Champi in the last few days. Typhoon Champi has just crossed the Mariana Islands, but is not expected to threaten land further in the near future. However, Typhoon Koppu is bearing down on the island of Luzon in the Philippines.

Typhoons Koppu (left) and Champi (right) at 0900 UTC on 16 October 2015 Image courtesy of the Japanese National Institute for Informatics

Typhoons Koppu (left) and Champi (right) at 0900 UTC on 16 October 2015
Image courtesy of the Japanese National Institute for Informatics

Based on latest forecasts the centre of the typhoon is likely to make landfall late on Saturday night, UK time.

However, with Typhoon Koppu the greater threat could come from heavy rainfall. Forecasts currently suggest that the typhoon will become slow moving over the Philippines and could take anything between two and five days to move away from Luzon.

The wind is expected to be destructive close to the eye as it comes onshore, with sustained winds likely to be 115mph and gusts to 160mph.  Whilst the winds should weaken after landfall, rainfall will continue and be particularly heavy on the slopes of the high ground in northern Luzon. It is estimated that as much as a metre of rainfall could occur in this area which is likely to bring flooding and mudslides. A storm surge is expected near the eye of the storm.

Further south the capital Manila, which is located on lower ground on a west facing bay, could receive over 200mm rain and be subject to coastal flooding due to the strong westerly winds on the southern flank of the typhoon forcing water into the bay.

Typhoon Koppu at 0732 UTC on 16 October 2015 Image courtesy of NOAA

Typhoon Koppu at 0732 UTC on 16 October 2015
Image courtesy of NOAA

Elsewhere in the Pacific it is possible that two further tropical storms could develop in the coming days in addition to Typhoons Koppu and Champi, although no immediate impact on land areas is expected. Looking a little further ahead, some computer models expect a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico later next week, but it is too early to give precise predictions of track and impacts at this stage.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

 





Hurricane Joaquin lashes the Bahamas but will it hit the USA?

1 10 2015

In recent months attention has focused on the very active tropical cyclone season in the Pacific Ocean brought about primarily by the strong El Niño which has developed this year. Meanwhile, the Atlantic has been very quiet with most tropical storms remaining fairly weak and only two reaching hurricane strength until now.

However, Joaquin has become the third hurricane of the Atlantic season and the second to achieve ‘major’ status – category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Joaquin is currently lashing the Bahamas with winds in excess of 100 mph near the centre of the hurricane. A storm surge of over two metres is possible and rainfall totals could be as high as 500 mm. Once the hurricane starts moving away from the islands the big question is whether it will make landfall over the US east coast.

Hurricane Joaquin at 1237 UTC on 01 October 2015 Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory [local copy at http://www-nwp/~frjh/tropicalcyclone/images/nhem15/joaquin_20151001_1237z.png]

Hurricane Joaquin at 1237 UTC on 01 October 2015
Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

The forecasting conundrum

Joaquin is currently slow moving near the Bahamas and all computer models agree that a gradual turn north will happen in about two days time. However, beyond this point there is great uncertainty as to what will happen. Joaquin is being pulled in two directions. A developing trough of low pressure over the USA would act to pull Joaquin westwards towards the US coast. However, an area of low pressure to the east – including the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida – would act to pull Joaquin east away from the USA. The situation is finely balanced and any of several outcomes could happen.

One scenario is that Joaquin could make a turn north-westwards and make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina at the weekend. Computer models are now mostly moving away from this as a likely outcome. Alternatively, Joaquin could take a mostly northwards track and reach New York and New England by early next week then continue up the eastern seaboard of Canada. Finally, a third scenario allows for the possibility that Joaquin could turn north-eastwards and avoid a US landfall altogether. We recommend that a close watch is kept on guidance issued by the National Hurricane Center in coming days for updates on which scenario is the most likely to occur.

Irrespective of whether or where Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall on the US east coast, large amounts of rain are expected in this area in the coming few days due to a slow-moving frontal zone. The impact of this will be exacerbated if Hurricane Joaquin does take a turn towards the USA in the next few days with further heavy rain accompanied by strong winds and a storm surge.

 Latest forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin from the National Hurricane Center

Latest forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin from the National Hurricane Center

Recent history of US landfalling hurricanes

Hurricane strikes on the USA have been fairly infrequent in recent years – particularly those at the stronger end of the scale. In 2014 Arthur crossed the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a category 2 hurricane. Going back to 2012, Isaac came ashore over Louisiana as a minimal category 1 hurricane. In 2011 Irene made landfall on the east coast of the USA also as a category 1 hurricane. The USA avoided hurricane strikes altogether in 2010 and 2009, but in 2008 three made landfall, the most significant of which was Hurricane Ike which caused a huge storm surge as it came ashore over Texas as a category 2 hurricane. However, you have to go back to 2005 to find the last ‘major’ hurricane strike on the USA (category 3 or above), when Hurricane Wilma hit Florida.

Hurricane Sandy (sometimes referred to as ‘Superstorm Sandy’) also caused much devastation to parts of the USA east coast in 2012. It is ranked as the second most costly hurricane in US history, although technically ceased to be a hurricane just prior to the time it made landfall.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Will Joaquin affect the UK?

With the confidence around the exact track of Joaquin being so low, it is currently too early to tell if this system will affect the weather in the UK. There is, however, already high confidence that we will return to more autumnal and unsettled conditions across the UK early next week. Make sure you keep up-to-date with the Met Office five-day forecast.





Typhoon Dujuan strikes Taiwan

28 09 2015

Typhoon Dujuan has today (Monday 28 September) made landfall over Taiwan on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean with sustained winds well in excess of 100 mph. Dujuan is expected to drop large amounts of rainfall – 500mm is possible – over the mountainous interior of the island which could result in serious flooding and landslides. Within the first few hours of the typhoon affecting Taiwan 142mm of rainfall has already been recorded in Taipei.

Dujuan comes just seven weeks after Typhoon Soudelor struck the same part of northern Taiwan with a similar intensity. Soudelor caused flooding, destruction due to strong winds and some loss of life. Dujuan is expected to take a similar track to Soudelor – crossing the Taiwan Strait and reaching the Pacific coast of mainland China tomorrow (Tuesday 29 September) before moving inland.

Typhoon Dujuan just prior to landfall on 28 September 2015 Image courtesy of JMA

Typhoon Dujuan just prior to landfall on 28 September 2015
Image courtesy of JMA.

Typhoon Dujuan after making landfall on 28 September 2015 Image courtesy of MTSAT

Typhoon Dujuan after making landfall on 28 September 2015
Image courtesy of MTSAT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dujuan and Soudelor are two of many strong typhoons and hurricanes which have occurred across the Pacific Ocean this year. One of the main contributing factors to the high level of storm activity is the strong El Niño which has developed. This is characterised by a marked warming of the tropical east Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño can alter weather patterns in many parts of the world and in particular results in increased Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The last time an El Niño of the current strength occurred was in 1997-8 when high levels of Pacific tropical cyclone activity were also experienced.

In total there have been 43 tropical cyclones across the whole of the Pacific Ocean this year. 19 of these have acquired ‘major’ status – category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The northern hemisphere season usually continues through October and November and in some seasons extends into December as well.

In addition to Typhoon Dujuan there are also two other tropical storms in the Pacific at present. Tropical Storm Niala is located in the central Pacific just south of Hawaii. It is not expected to impact Hawaii directly as it gradually weakens. The central part of the North Pacific Ocean surrounding Hawaii has seen a record number of tropical storms form this season, although Hawaii itself has avoided a direct strike from any of the storms so far.

Over in the far eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Marty is just under hurricane strength and is moving slowly towards the coast of Mexico. It is not certain yet whether Marty will make landfall, but a tropical storm watch has been issued for coastal areas including the resort of Acapulco.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Central Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and east Pacific and Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Active Pacific tropical cyclone season continues

2 09 2015

Early September marks the half way point in the northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season and is often the time when we see the highest levels of activity – so how is this season shaping up?

As reported in a news release last week, tropical cyclone activity across the north Pacific has been extremely high this year with numerous intense typhoons in the west Pacific and hurricanes in the east Pacific. These are different names for the same thing – hurricanes occur east of the International Dateline and typhoons to the west.

There has been a fair amount of discussion recently in social and news media as to how ‘record-breaking’ this season has been so far. Reliable records only go back to about the 1960s or 1970s when satellite coverage of the tropical oceans became available. However, bearing this in mind, here are some of the remarkable statistics for the year up to 1st September:

  • There have been 15 tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere reaching category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – 6 more than the previous record.
  • Tropical cyclone activity across the northern hemisphere as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (a combined measure of intensity and longevity) is 200% of normal and over 20% above any other year.
  • Six hurricanes have crossed the central Pacific region – more than any other year.
  • Three north Pacific hurricanes have crossed the International Dateline – more than any other year.
  • Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena were all at category 4 simultaneously in the Pacific east of the International Dateline – the first time three major hurricanes have been recorded at the same time in this region.
IDL TIFF file

(L-R) Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena on 30 August 2015. Image courtesy of NASA.

Why the high levels of tropical cyclone activity?

One of the main contributing factors is the strong El Niño which has developed. This is characterised by a marked warming of the tropical east Pacific Ocean. Temperature anomalies here are currently at their highest since 1997-98, when high levels of Pacific tropical cyclone activity were also experienced.

What about the Atlantic?

The existence of El Niño conditions usually results in a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. This is primarily as a result of strong wind shear (winds varying in strength and direction with height) across large parts of the region. There have been six Atlantic tropical storms so far this season. Recently Danny became a major hurricane just east of the Caribbean, but quickly succumbed to the strong wind shear as it entered the Caribbean Sea. Erika threatened to develop into a hurricane, but again dissipated in the Caribbean due to a combination of high wind shear and interaction with islands such as Hispaniola.

In the far eastern Atlantic, conditions were favourable enough for a hurricane to quickly spin up as a cluster of thunderstorms moved off the west coast of Africa a few days ago. Fred became the most easterly forming hurricane in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the first recorded hurricane to hit the Cape Verde Islands since 1892. However, as Fred has continued to move north-westwards it has also been subject to strong wind shear and is weakening rapidly.

What about the rest of the year?

Seasonal model predictions suggest that the strong El Niño will persist for several months to come. Hence it is likely that the high tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific will continue for the remainder of the season. The Atlantic is expected to have a quiet season overall, but this does not exclude the possibility of the development of a major hurricane. There are notable instances of damaging hurricanes occurring in otherwise quiet seasons such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992 which caused devastation in Miami, Florida.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Central Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and east Pacific and Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Statistics on recent northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity are courtesy of Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (@philklotzbach).





Taiwan preparing for violent Typhoon

4 08 2015

A Typhoon is expected to bring flooding to parts of Taiwan and eastern China later this week with 500-700mm of rain forecast. Typhoon Soudelor is at the moment moving through the northwestern Pacific Ocean and looks likely to track across central Taiwan on Friday before making landfall over eastern China as it weakens.

This is a violent typhoon and is presently 500 miles to the west of the Northern Mariana Islands in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and is moving towards Taiwan. Currently surface wind speeds are estimated to be 130 mph with gusts of 190 mph, although these speeds are likely to ease slightly before reaching Taiwan.

Picture courtesy of Japanese Meteorological Agency

Picture courtesy of Japanese Meteorological Agency

This storm brings the threat of a storm surge and high waves to coastal areas of Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands by Friday, as well as very strong winds quite widely, including to the capital of Taiwan, Taipei. Torrential rain is also expected which will bring a risk of significant flooding with the potential for 500-700mm rain falling in some areas in a 24 hour period.

The exact track of the storm could change over the coming days; you can see the latest track of Typhoon Soudelor through Storm Tracker and by following @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Active tropical storm season in the Northwest Pacific as another typhoon heads for the Philippines

7 05 2015

Typhoon Noul is currently to the east of the Philippines in the Northwest Pacific, and is heading steadily west-northwest. Noul is expected to continue moving towards the Philippines whilst intensifying further to a very strong typhoon. The storm is expected to make landfall in the Philippines this weekend.

Noul pacific sat pic

There is still some uncertainty in the exact track, but currently Noul looks likely to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon, bringing very strong winds with gusts of 130kt (150mph), coastal and inland flooding with total rainfall accumulations of up to 400mm possible, and potential landslides across large parts of northern Luzon. There is also a risk of significant impacts in Manila if Noul takes a slightly more southerly track.

Track from Japan Meteorological Agency

Track from Japan Meteorological Agency

Although the typhoon is expected to weaken next week, Noul could also bring some heavy rain to parts of Japan.

This is the sixth tropical storm of the north-west Pacific season and the fourth to become a typhoon, which is an unusual level of activity so early in the season. And yet another tropical storm looks set to develop behind Noul, possibly following a similar path.

The Met Office works closely with counterparts at the Philippines weather service PAGASA, providing the latest information on computer model predictions of the likely track and intensity of Typhoon Noul as it nears the country.

Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.








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