Mild start to December

16 12 2015

Looking at figures dating back to 1960 this has been the mildest start to December for Wales (8.7C), south west England (9.8C) and south east England (10C), and the 4th warmest for the UK as a whole (7.1C), with 1979, 2000 and 2006 being marginally milder.

Early provisional figures* (1-14 December) show the first half of December has been very mild across England and Wales with the maximum daily temperatures 3.2C above average for the UK as a whole.

However there has been a sharp north-south contrast at times with much colder air over Scotland and some frosts.  Elsewhere the humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has remained similar to last month: cloudy with very few clear nights, mild nights and very little sunshine for most areas.

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

 

The main talking point so far this month has been Storm Desmond, bringing record-breaking rainfall totals over the Lake District and a lot of rain over many northern areas.

Around 200% of the whole month’s normal rainfall has already fallen in a few places in the Pennines and the Lake District, it has also been wet in Snowdonia and parts of southern & central Scotland.  There has been near-normal rainfall across many other areas, and actually below average, for this point in the month, in parts of southern England.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-14 Dec 2015 Act deg C Anom deg C   Act Hours Anom %   Act mm Anom %  
Regions            
UK 7.1 3.2 13.4 33 100.2 83
England 8.6 4.3 15.7 33 56.7 65
Wales 8.7 4.2 11.0 26 140.9 85
Scotland 4.2 1.4 10.4 34 161.6 99
N Ireland 6.1 1.6 13.1 35 99.0 87

 

Despite the mild start to winter following on from a mild autumn, it looks like 2015 will be an average year as far as weather is concerned.

This year’s damp and cool spring and summer mean that despite the current mild spell, the rainfall, temperature and sunshine statistics for the year as a whole are all hovering around average, with just 17 days left until the end of the year.

Indications are that the unsettled weather will continue through Christmas and into the new year. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected across all parts, with the heaviest and most persistent rain in the north and west, and the best of the drier conditions across south-east England.

We can expect gales at times, again especially in the north and west. Temperatures will be closer to average than of late, but still generally above, with any snowfall restricted to the high ground of Scotland and northern England.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.





Warm November on course to equal record in England

27 11 2015

UPDATE – 3 December 2015 – Provisonal full month stats show that November 2015 was the dullest on record

Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.

Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).

The other UK nations have been similarly warm

  • the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
  • the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
  • the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007

Apart from a short but marked cold spell on 21- 23 November there has been an absence of frosts in almost all areas, largely because of a humid, cloudy south-westerly airflow. This has also meant that most areas have seen very little sunshine. Most areas have had typical rainfall amounts for the time of year, but north-west Wales, north-west England and Southern Scotland have had well above average totals. There have also been a number of very windy episodes, including the impact of storms Abigail and Barney.

Of particular note was the temperature of 22.4°C recorded at Trawsgoed in Wales on 1 November and a remarkable overnight temperature of 16.1°C at Murlough in Northern Ireland on 9-10 November.

1-25 Nov mean temperature anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov mean temperature anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov rainfall anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov rainfall anomaly 1981-2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parts of southern and central Scotland, the Lake District, Pennines and Snowdonia have had over 150% of their whole-month rainfall average. North-east Scotland and parts of southern and eastern England have had slightly less than would be expected up to this point in the month. South-west Scotland has already had enough rain to make this the 5th wettest November for that region in a series since 1910.

Sunshine has been well below normal with just 33 hours of sunshine up to the 25th across the UK. This means November 2015 is heading toward being the dullest on records going back to 1929 – the dullest currently being 1962 with 39 hours.

1-25 Nov
2015*
Mean temp (°C ) Sunshine (hrs) Rainfall (mm)
Actual Diff from
81-10 avg
Actual % of
81-10 avg
Actual % of
81-10 avg
UK 8.4 2.2 33 58 136.4 113
England 9.5 2.6 34 53 93.3 106
Wales 9.2 2.4 33 58 197.4 122
Scotland 6.6 1.6 31 68 192.9 116
N Ireland 8 1.5 37 68 127.2 113

You can find out what the rest of the year has been like on our climate pages.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.





Warm start to November

16 11 2015

Early provisional figures* (1-15 November) show the first half of November has been very mild with maximum daily temperatures 3.8C above average for the UK

Central England Temperature data set shows the start to the month has been the second warmest since this record began in 1772.

Local temperature records have been broken at various stations with only November 1938 seeing a warmer start to the month.

There has been an absence of frosts in almost all areas, largely because a humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has been cloudy and there have been very few clear nights.

 

MeanTemp 1-15 November 2015

MeanTemp 1-15 November 2015

The increased cloud means most areas have seen very little in the way of sun, with levels well below normal across southern and central England and also south-west Scotland. At this time in the month we would expect to see 50% of the monthly average however very few places have had as much as this and the UK as a whole has seen just 32% and Wales has seen less than half the sunshine we would expect mid month.   In the case of southern England it has also been remarkably dull, with some stations having only had 10 hours or less of bright sunshine in 15 days.

For many the start of the month has been wet, with the UK as a whole having had 75% of the whole months average rainfall (we would expect to see 50% at this time of the month). Parts of southern & central Scotland, the Lake District, Pennines and Snowdonia are among the areas already well above their whole-month average. However it was not a wet picture across the whole country, north-east Scotland and most of southern & eastern England have had slightly less rain than would be expected by this point in the month.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-15 Nov 2015 Act Anom  Act Anom  Act Anom 
  degC degC hours % mm %
Regions            
UK 10.0 3.8 18.1 32 90.5 75
England 11.2 4.3 17.5 27 59.8 68
Wales 10.7 3.9 20.3 36 128.5 79
Scotland 8.0 3.0 18.4 40 132.5 80
N Ireland 9.6 3.1 18.3 34 83.1 74

 

For the rest of November indications are that after an unsettled week the weather will turn colder with temperatures dropping nearer to the expected average for Novemeber if not a little below.  However milder conditions look likely to return for a time at the end of the month with rain and strong winds for much of the UK.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.





Warm, sunny and dry October

30 10 2015

Early provisional figures (1-28 October) show sunshine and temperatures were above normal in almost all places this month while rainfall has been below average, especially in western areas.

Much of October has been relatively settled, with high pressure dominating our weather. This has led to many dry, sunny days but cold nights and even a few frosts (coldest so far -5.0 °C at Braemar on 17th).  Although the end of the month so far has been more unsettled, it has remained milder than average.

Rainfall has been below average, especially in the west of the UK, with only around 30% of average in eastern parts of Wales.  The exception to this has been a band from Cambridgeshire to North Yorkshire and around Aberdeen where rainfall has been around average (at the time these figures were compiled we would expect around 90% of the month’s total rainfall and sunshine to have happened).

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 rainfall

1-28 October 2015 rainfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum temperatures (daytime) have been above normal in almost all areas for October, with north west Scotland being 2°C above, while south-east England stayed around average.  However cooler nights have led to Mean temperatures (average of daytime and night-time temperatures) over most of England and Wales being near average, but a degree or so above in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-28 Oct 2015 Act Anom Act Anom Act Anom
  degC degC hours % mm %
Regions            
UK 9.9 0.4 88.5 96 61.6 48
England 10.6 0.2 89.5 87 50.5 55
Wales 10.0 0.1 89.0 96 64.3 38
Scotland 8.6 0.7 85.4 113 78.4 45
N Ireland 9.8 0.4 94.7 108 64.8 54

 

Meanwhile Halloween starts off cloudy or foggy for many with some patchy rain across northern parts.  However this clears leaving a mild day with patchy sunshine for many in the afternoon.   Sunday, 1st November, looks much the same staying mostly dry with some sunny spells.  Check out our five day forecast for more details.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

 

 





Warm, dry, sunny start to October

16 10 2015

The first half of October has been dominated by high pressure, giving a warm, dry, sunny start to October across the UK.

The month started with some weather fronts crossing the UK bringing rain in places. However the mid month statistics* (1 -14th October 2015) show that from the 5th onwards a high pressure system has dominated our weather bringing dry, settled conditions for most of us.

However, because of the position high pressure, we have seen relatively cool air coming in from the north-east. This has resulted in plenty of pleasant, sunny days, particularly in western areas, but with temperatures dropping away at night and a few frosts in places (coldest in this period -3.7 °C at Altnaharra on 13th).  Sunshine hours and maximum temperatures so far this month have been above average, but many places have seen night time temperatures below what we would expect, meaning the overall mean temperatures so far are above average for the whole of October.

MeanTemp Oct 1-14 2015

Rainfall has been well below normal in western areas, although closer to what would be expected by this point in the month in some eastern parts of the UK.  As a whole the UK has seen just 20% of the expected monthly rainfall so far, well short of the 50% we would expect to see by mid month.

1-14 Oct 2015 mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
degC degC hours % mm %
UK 10.3 0.8 57.1 62 25.5 20
England 11 0.6 60.7 59 25.2 27
Wales 10.4 0.5 60.2 65 24.8 15
Scotland   9.1 1.2 49.7 66 28.5 16
N Ireland 10.3 0.9 61.4 70 12.1 10

Of course, while these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. Latest forecasts show that the settled weather is expected to continue for many over the next few days, before conditions become generally more unsettled across the UK with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, interspersed with drier, brighter periods as we head towards the end of the month.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.





Dry, sunny but cool September

30 09 2015

Two spells of settled weather during September have contributed to a rather dry and sunny but cool September.

Provisional statistics for the month show that after a wet end to August, September has been drier than average for much of the UK with figures up to the 28 September showing that there has been 53.3mm of rain, only 55% of the September average of 96.4mm.

Northern and western Scotland have been particularly dry with only 37% and 31% of the September average for rainfall having been recorded. In comparison, parts of eastern and southeast England have seen above average rainfall. Wales has seen 75mm of rain, 64% of average, while Northern Ireland recorded 51% of the September average for rainfall with a total of 47.1mm.

Many places have enjoyed a sunny month with 137 hours of sunshine recorded across the UK, this is 10% above the average for September.

However, despite the dry and sunny weather conditions, September has seen some rather cool days and nights. Mean temperatures across the UK up until the 28 September are 0.8C below normal with minimum temperatures across England and Wales around 1.5C below the September average. Five UK observing sites have already recorded their first frost of the season.

September 2015 rainfall amount

September 2015 rainfall amount

September 2015 sunshine anomaly

September 2015 sunshine anomaly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROVISIONAL mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
Sep-2015 Act Anm (8110) Act Anm (8110) Act Anm (8110)
degC degC hours % mm %
Regions
UK 11.9 -0.8 137.2 110 53.3 55
England 12.6 -1.1 152.5 111 52.8 76
Wales 11.8 -1.1 151.9 119 75.0 64
Scotland 10.8 -0.1 112.0 106 49.3 36
N Ireland 11.7 -0.7 113.9 100 47.1 51

 

The outlook for the first few days of October is for the fine, settled weather to continue before we see a transition towards more changeable weather next week with rain at times. Check out our five day forecast for more details.





Dry start to September for many

18 09 2015

You may think September has been a wet month so far but according to early provisional Met Office statistics, the month has started out drier and sunnier than average for many across the UK.

However the picture has been varied, some parts of southern and eastern England have already had over three quarters of their whole-month average rainfall for September. While northern and western areas have been drier, with little in the way of rain so far for much of Northern Ireland and Scotland away from eastern coasts.

Figures up to 16th September show there has been almost 30mm of rain across the UK, which is just 31% of the September average of 96mm. We would normally expect about half of the average monthly rainfall to have fallen by this point in the month. While there has been almost 72 hours of sunshine, 58% of the monthly average of 125 hours, with some north-western areas being especially sunny so far this month.

01 -16 Sept 2015 Rainfall Amount

01 -16 Sept 2015 Rainfall Amount

Looking at individual countries, Scotland has been the driest with almost 21mm of rain, 15% of average, followed by Northern Ireland with almost 24mm of rain, 26% of average. England is the wettest country so far with almost 34mm 49% of average.  There was a dry anticyclonic spell for the UK lasting from 5th until 11th, since then there have been some noticeable falls of rain.

The UK mean temperature so far has been 12.2C, which is 0.4C below the full-month average.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
Sep-2015 Act Anm (8110) Act Anm (8110) Act Anm (8110)
degC degC hours % mm %
Regions
UK 12.2 -0.4 71.8 58 29.8 31
England 13.0 -0.8 78.2 57 33.8 49
Wales 12.3 -0.6 73.2 57 42.2 36
Scotland 11.0 0.1 63.6 61 20.9 15
N Ireland 12.2 -0.2 56.1 49 23.9 26

 

While these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. A few days of wet or cold weather could drastically alter the statistics, so we’ll have to wait for the full-month figures before making any judgements.

Meanwhile this weekend is looking fine and dry, with good spells of sunshine for many on Saturday and many places seeing settled weather continuing well into Sunday evening. Check out our five day forecast for more details.





Highest temperatures and rainfall over the weekend

23 08 2015

Over the past 24 hours the weather has delivered a mixture of hot sunshine, thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain as we highlighted earlier in the week.

As expected, sunny skies and warm air being pushed northwards from the continent allowed temperatures to climb across central and eastern parts of the UK, reaching maximums in the high 20s and low 30s on Saturday with a humid feel:

Table showing Maximum temperatures for Saturday 22 August 2015

Location Maximum Temperature in C
Gravesend 30.9
Kew Gardens 30.9
Heathrow 30.7
St James’s Park 30.7
Northolt 30.6

These high temperatures set off two areas of thunderstorms, one over central southern England and another over the Midlands, moving into northern England. These storms caused localised surface water flooding and flooding of some properties in North Yorkshire as up to 30mm of rain fell in an hour. There were also impacts to the York-Leeds rail line.

Across the northwest of the UK it was fresher and mainly dry with some sunshine, while the areas in between were rather cloudy with some rain.

Overnight, the heavy, thundery downpours continued to move northwards, while heavy rain also spread into western parts of the UK. By this morning at 10am the rainfall totals for the 24 hours were as follows:

Table showing rainfall totals for the 24 hours up until 10am on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Bramham 62.6
Ryhill 54.6
Tredegar 40.6
Linton-on-Ouse 39.8
Scolton Country Park 36.8

During today, the heavy rain has continued to spread north and eastwards with a mixture of sunny spells and heavy showers following across the south. Ahead of this, temperatures across eastern England have again peaked in the mid to high 20s.

Table showing rainfall totals bwtween 10am and 4pm on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Hereford 20.8
Llanbrynmair 20.4
Sarn 17.8
Lake Vyrnwy 17.2
Porthmadog 17.2

The changeable weather will continue as we head into next week. Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued and everyone is encouraged to keep up to date with forecasts and warnings over the next few days and to make plans accordingly.





Early July sees big rainfall contrasts

20 07 2015

After a hot and humid start to the month, when record daily maximum temperatures were recorded at several stations across the country on 1 July, it has been a fairly average month so far for the UK as a whole. However, on a regional scale there are some contrasts.

Using figures up to 15 July, mean temperatures have been close to or above average, with counties in eastern and southeastern England highest relative to average.

Meanwhile, for rainfall there are more notable variations, with eastern parts of England having received around or less than half the amount of rainfall that would be expected by mid-month. For example, Surrey and Sussex have both recorded less than 20% of the month’s average rainfall with 7.8mm and 9.9mm respectively. By the 15th of the month you would normally expect around 48% of the whole-month average.

This is in comparison with parts of Eastern Scotland where some places have already recorded more rainfall than the whole-July average. Aberdeenshire and Kincardineshire have already seen rainfall in excess of July’s average at 79mm and 106.6mm.

After the hot, sunny start to the month there have been periods of unsettled weather, with weather systems arriving from the Atlantic bringing rain or showers at times. This has been interspersed with drier, sunny spells.

With west or southwesterly winds dominating, there have been some rather cloudy days in the south, leading to mild nights.

The table below shows figures for the 1-15 July. You would normally expect about 48% of the full-month average for sunshine and rainfall at this point in the month.

Mean temperature Sunshine duration Rainfall
1-15 July
Act (°C) Diff from avg (°C) Act (hrs) % of avg Act (mm) % of avg
UK 15.5 0.4 88.0 51 46.9 60
England 17.0 0.7 103.7 54 30.5 49
Wales 15.4 0.2 89.2 50 56.4 61
Scotland 13.3 0.0 66.8 47 71.9 72
N Ireland 14.2 -0.4 57.7 41 45.9 57

 





On the record – observing a ‘heatwave’

7 07 2015

Last week on 1 July the UK saw its warmest July daily max temperature on record (records date back as far as 1853), with 36.7 °C at Heathrow. This has led to considerable interest in the wider context of the record temperatures. Here, Mark McCarthy, Manager of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre discusses records and how we record them.

Where were record temperatures observed on 1 July 2015?

Although Heathrow measured the highest temperature recorded by the Met Office observing network on a July day, record temperatures were reported across a wide stretch of the country, including from some of the Met Office’s very long running climate stations.

Temperatures exceeded 35 °C at a handful of locations in London and the south east, but also reached the low 30s across the Midlands, East Anglia and parts of north-west and north-east England. It is in these areas that July temperature records were broken.

Map showing stations recording new July temperature records, 1 July 2015

Map showing stations recording new July temperature records, 1 July 2015

The table below lists those stations with more than 50 years of observations for which 1 July 2015 was a record. These data show that record temperatures for July were not confined to London or other major urban centres. The records were, in fact, part of a larger scale pattern of high temperatures extending through Spain, Portugal and France.

SITE DATE OF PREV JULY RECORD PREV RECORD JULY MAX (°C) 1 JULY 2015 MAX (°C) YEARS OF DATA
Durham 31/7/1943, 10/7/1921 30.6 31 133
Sheffield 31/7/1943, 10/7/1921 31.7 33.3 130
Bradford 31/7/1943, 13/7/1935 30.6 30.9 106
Cranwell 22/7/1996 32.6 34.3 93
Sutton Bonnington 19/7/2006 32.9 33.6 84
Stonyhurst 3/7/1976 31.1 32.6 75
Manston 15/7/1983 31.4 33.6 74
Goudhurst 3/7/1976 32.8 33.3 74
Waddington 12/7/1949 32.2 33.1 67
Heathrow 19/7/2006 35.5 36.7 66
Nottingham (Watnall) 3/7/1976 32.3 33.9 64
Marham 3/7/1976, 5/7/1959 32.8 33.5 58
Wittering 5/7/1959 32.8 35.3 53
St James’s Park 5/7/1959 34.4 34.7 52

How does this compare to past heatwaves?

Temperatures over 36 °C reported at any station in the UK observing network are very rare, with only a handful of notable heatwaves seeing such extremes. The heatwaves of August 1990, August 2003, and July 2006 each saw a number of stations exceed 36 °C, whereas on 1 July 2015 Heathrow was the only station.

The Met Office maintains a list of climate extremes for the UK. It is standard practice to report the highest and lowest temperature every month as part of our routine monitoring of UK weather and climate. It is therefore always noteworthy when one of these records is broken.

While there is no doubt that some previous heatwaves have seen more extreme or more widespread high temperatures overall – particularly in the climatologically warmer period from late July into early August – 1 July 2015 has the honour of holding the highest recorded temperature for a July day with 36.7 °C at Heathrow.

How do you ensure the data are reliable?

To ensure consistency, Met Office weather records are only given for stations with standard instruments and exposure. This means that our records would not represent the extremes that may have occurred in places where we do not have standard instruments. This may have been the case on 1 July 2015, where the availability of additional data from amateur observers contributing to Met Office WOW show peak temperatures in the range 35 to 37 °C to the west London.

It is reasonable to ask whether Heathrow, as a major international airport, can provide a reliable climatological record. Are the observations biased by the presence of runways and air traffic?

The instrumentation and station enclosure are managed so that they meet the standards required by the Met Office and set out by the World Meteorological Organization. The site has been operating for 66 years and provides an excellent long observational series for west London.

The first thing we can do is compare the climatological temperatures with a nearby station at Kew Gardens. The average daytime maximum temperatures for the two sites are very close:

Site June July August
Heathrow 21.04 °C 23.54 °C 23.15 °C
Kew 21.02 °C 23.48 °C 23.15 °C

On 1 July the maximum temperature recorded at Heathrow (36.7 °C) was higher than Kew (35.7 °C). Modern instrumentation means we can look at the temperatures minute-by-minute at the two sites, as shown below. The two locations recorded very similar temperatures through most of the afternoon and the average temperature at the two sites between 12:00 and 18:00 GMT agree to within 0.02 °C. However, there was a peak in temperature at Heathrow between 14:00 and 14:30 GMT that was not seen at Kew Gardens. What could cause such a peak?

Temperature (°C) graph for Heathrow and Kew Gardens 1 July 2015

There were scattered clouds in the area that afternoon. Both Heathrow and Kew Gardens have instruments measuring solar radiation, shown in the graph below. Both sites recorded a general dip in solar radiation due to clouds from approximately 13:30 to 15:00 GMT which corresponds to a slight cooling at both sites. Heathrow saw a short gap in the clouds shortly after 14:00 GMT which resulted in a similarly short lived peak in temperature, while Kew Gardens remained cloudy. In turn Kew Gardens then saw a brief spell being sunnier than Heathrow just before 15:00 GMT and became warmer than Heathrow for about an hour.

Solar radiation (W/m2) graph for Heathrow and Kew Gardens 1 July 2015








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