2015 likely to be the warmest on record

25 11 2015

This year’s global average surface temperature is likely to be the warmest on record according to data from the Met Office, and is expected to continue the trend showing 15 of the top 16 warmest years have happened since 2001.

These findings concur with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) findings also announced today.

2015 a more ‘clear-cut’ record

Provisional figures up to the end of October show this year’s near-surface global temperature as estimated from the HadCRUT dataset has been around 0.71 ±0.1 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0 °C.

This is in-line with the Met Office’s forecast, issued in December 2014, which predicted 2015 global temperatures would be between 0.52 °C and 0.76 °C* above the 1961-1990 average, with a central estimate of 0.64 °C.

In HadCRUT, this year is clearly warmer than 2014, the previous nominal warmest year in the record, which was 0.57 ±0.1 °C above the 1961-1990 average.

Global Temperature graph

Colin Morice, a climate monitoring scientist at the Met Office, said: “Last year was nominally the warmest year in our records but wasn’t much higher than the other top warmest years. This year the temperature is markedly warmer than anything we’ve previously seen in the 166-year record, meaning its position at the top of the rankings looks set to be much more clear cut.”


The HadCRUT dataset, jointly compiled by the Met Office and Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, uses data from more than 6, 000 observation sites around the world and observations from ships and buoys at sea. It is recognised as one of the world’s leading indices of global temperature.

Temperatures 1 °C above ‘pre-industrial’ for first time

2015 is set to mark the first time in the record that annual global temperatures reach 1 °C above ‘pre-industrial’ temperatures (taken here as an average of the 1850-1900 period*).

This is important because governments around the world have agreed the aim of trying to limit warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial to try to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

Leading independently-run datasets agree

Findings from HadCRUT are very similar to independently-run global temperature datasets compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies.

Information from all three datasets is included in an announcement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on global temperature, which also concludes this year is likely to be the warmest on record.

Where did 2015’s warmth come from?

This year has seen a strong El Niño develop, with unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific, releasing heat into the atmosphere and pushing up global temperatures.

Global Temperature chart

Global Temperature chart

While this has contributed to 2015’s warmth, this is likely to be comparatively small compared to the long-term influence of warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.

This is backed up by research from the Met Office last year which showed global temperatures seen in recent years would be highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the climate.

What’s in store for the year ahead?

Last year saw record or near record warmth globally, this year is warmer still and the current expectation is that next year will also be warm.

This is due to two factors: firstly, the ongoing warming due to human influence, and secondly although the current El Niño is expected to peak around the end of this year, its main warming influence is usually felt in the months afterwards. For example, a strong El Niño peaked at the end of 1997 – but it was 1998 which went on to become a record (at the time) by some margin.

There are other natural factors – such as changes in longer term ocean cycles or volcanic eruptions – which could act to reduce global temperatures next year, so there will always be some uncertainty.

The Met Office will give more detail in the expected global temperature for 2016 when it publishes its forecast in the latter part of December.


* While late 19th century temperatures are commonly taken to be indicative of pre-industrial, there is no fixed period that is used as standard and a variety of other periods have been used for observational and palaeo datasets. There are limitations in available data in the early instrumental record, making the average temperature in the reference period less certain. There is not a reliable indicator of global temperatures back to 1750, which is the era widely assumed to represent pre-industrial conditions. Therefore 1850-1900 is chosen here as the most reliable reference period, which also corresponds to the period chosen by IPCC to represent a suitable earlier reference period.

Warm, sunny and dry October

30 10 2015

Early provisional figures (1-28 October) show sunshine and temperatures were above normal in almost all places this month while rainfall has been below average, especially in western areas.

Much of October has been relatively settled, with high pressure dominating our weather. This has led to many dry, sunny days but cold nights and even a few frosts (coldest so far -5.0 °C at Braemar on 17th).  Although the end of the month so far has been more unsettled, it has remained milder than average.

Rainfall has been below average, especially in the west of the UK, with only around 30% of average in eastern parts of Wales.  The exception to this has been a band from Cambridgeshire to North Yorkshire and around Aberdeen where rainfall has been around average (at the time these figures were compiled we would expect around 90% of the month’s total rainfall and sunshine to have happened).

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 sunshine

1-28 October 2015 rainfall

1-28 October 2015 rainfall












Maximum temperatures (daytime) have been above normal in almost all areas for October, with north west Scotland being 2°C above, while south-east England stayed around average.  However cooler nights have led to Mean temperatures (average of daytime and night-time temperatures) over most of England and Wales being near average, but a degree or so above in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-28 Oct 2015 Act Anom Act Anom Act Anom
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 9.9 0.4 88.5 96 61.6 48
England 10.6 0.2 89.5 87 50.5 55
Wales 10.0 0.1 89.0 96 64.3 38
Scotland 8.6 0.7 85.4 113 78.4 45
N Ireland 9.8 0.4 94.7 108 64.8 54


Meanwhile Halloween starts off cloudy or foggy for many with some patchy rain across northern parts.  However this clears leaving a mild day with patchy sunshine for many in the afternoon.   Sunday, 1st November, looks much the same staying mostly dry with some sunny spells.  Check out our five day forecast for more details.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall & sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.



Spooky heat for Halloween weekend?

28 10 2015

Last Halloween saw record breaking temperatures across parts of the United Kingdom, with both Kew Garden’s, London and Gravesend, Kent reaching a maximum temperature of 23.6C.

What can trick or treaters expect this year on Halloween?

The weather’s currently in an unsettled mood, with a mild south or southwesterly flow dominating the weather pattern. Most areas will escape night frosts for the rest of the week, and yesterday (Tuesday) parts of London reached almost 20 degrees during the afternoon. Although the next couple of days are likely to bring rain to all areas, the worst of the unsettled weather should stay in northern and western parts of the UK as we head into the last day of October.

Pressure chart for midday on Saturday 31 October 2015

Pressure chart for midday on Saturday 31 October 2015

Pressure will rise across the south allowing more settled conditions to take hold towards the south and east. The generally mild theme looks likely to continue with warm air spreading northwards from the continent. As a result there is a possibility that parts of southeast England could see maximum temperatures in the high teens, perhaps touching 20 Celsius. The extent and degree of warmth will be affected by how much cloud cover there is which is difficult to forecst accurately 3 days ahead, however therer will be some decent bright or sunny spells. You can keep up to date with the most recent forecast on our 5 day forecast pages.

Sunday sees the start of a new month and it’s looking likely that we will see similar weather to Saturday with many places staying dry with bright or sunny spells after early mist or fog clears. The warm air may hang on across the south where, if sunshine allows, it could turn very warm with temperatures getting close to the UK temperature record for November of  21.7C (reached at Prestatyn, North Wales on 4 November 1946). Record breaking or not, this weekend provides plenty of opportunities to get out and shake off those cobwebs.

Warm, dry, sunny start to October

16 10 2015

The first half of October has been dominated by high pressure, giving a warm, dry, sunny start to October across the UK.

The month started with some weather fronts crossing the UK bringing rain in places. However the mid month statistics* (1 -14th October 2015) show that from the 5th onwards a high pressure system has dominated our weather bringing dry, settled conditions for most of us.

However, because of the position high pressure, we have seen relatively cool air coming in from the north-east. This has resulted in plenty of pleasant, sunny days, particularly in western areas, but with temperatures dropping away at night and a few frosts in places (coldest in this period -3.7 °C at Altnaharra on 13th).  Sunshine hours and maximum temperatures so far this month have been above average, but many places have seen night time temperatures below what we would expect, meaning the overall mean temperatures so far are above average for the whole of October.

MeanTemp Oct 1-14 2015

Rainfall has been well below normal in western areas, although closer to what would be expected by this point in the month in some eastern parts of the UK.  As a whole the UK has seen just 20% of the expected monthly rainfall so far, well short of the 50% we would expect to see by mid month.

1-14 Oct 2015 mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
degC degC hours % mm %
UK 10.3 0.8 57.1 62 25.5 20
England 11 0.6 60.7 59 25.2 27
Wales 10.4 0.5 60.2 65 24.8 15
Scotland   9.1 1.2 49.7 66 28.5 16
N Ireland 10.3 0.9 61.4 70 12.1 10

Of course, while these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. Latest forecasts show that the settled weather is expected to continue for many over the next few days, before conditions become generally more unsettled across the UK with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds, interspersed with drier, brighter periods as we head towards the end of the month.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

State of the UK climate 2014

23 09 2015

Our climate in the UK is changing and therefore it is essential that we record those changes accurately. The foundation for this monitoring comes from our extensive network of meteorological observations. The Met Office National Climate Information Centre is responsible for translating these diverse observations into an understanding of our nation’s weather and climate and its longer term historical context. Today we have released a new report called ‘State of the UK Climate 2014’.


What is it?
‘State of the UK Climate’ is a new annual publication that presents a summary of the UK’s weather and climate, in this case for 2014, comparing it to historical records to provide long-term context. It is intended to provide an accessible, authoritative and up-to-date assessment of UK climate trends, variations and extremes based on the latest available climate quality observational datasets.

What does it say?
Some of the important findings of this year’s report are:

2014 was the warmest year on record for UK land and coastal waters.

2014 was the fourth wettest year on record for the UK.

8 of the 10 warmest years for the UK have occurred since 2002 and all the top
ten warmest years have occurred since 1990.

7 of the 10 wettest years for the UK have occurred since 1998.

Mean sea level around the UK rose by 1.4 millimetres per year (mm/yr) in the
20th Century, when corrected for land movement.

Within its pages you can also discover a host of other facts and figures from days of heavy rain, snow and sunshine hours, a summary of significant weather events in 2014 and the fact that February 2014 saw the highest ever recorded sea level at Newlyn in Cornwall in a 100 year series.

Why now?
We monitor a wide range of observations and will always report our findings as they happen, regardless of whether that be a single severe storm, the hottest year on record, or a relatively benign month. However the eagle-eyed may have noticed that we refer to these statistics as “provisional”. This is because we also continue to collect more observations and undertake extensive quality control of the data for a long time after the event. At the completion of this process approximately 6 months later we will then recalculate all our national statistics to include all the best quality data that we can. That is why we are now publishing up to date statistics for the year 2014.

Will this be updated?
Yes. This publication is intended to be the first in a series of annual reports and we expect to publish the summary for 2015 next summer . These will provide the most up-to-date and highest quality UK climate statistics available. Our routine day-to-day and monthly monitoring will also continue, so for those that can’t wait we’ll still be providing our important real-time monitoring as well.

We would also love to hear your feedback or suggestions so that we can improve the publication and make it as useful as possible. While we cannot promise to respond individually to all comments we will be sure to consider them all as we plan the release for ‘State of the UK Climate 2015’ next summer. Please email all comments to socuk@metoffice.gov.uk.

Find the full report here: State of the UK Climate 2014

Met Office in the Media – 7 August 2015

7 08 2015

Earth from space

An article published today makes a number of claims about Met Office weather and climate science.

It would be difficult to cover all the points raised in this blog, but here we look at the science and facts behind a few of the assertions.

The first decadal forecast issued in 2007

We did indeed publish the first groundbreaking decadal forecast in 2007. It had two headline statements:

  1. that half of all years after 2009 would be warmer globally than the record year at that time (1998) – This is doing well so far with two out of five years (2010 and 2014) warmer than 1998 and given current temperature levels, it’s likely this will be 3 out of 6 by the end of this year, consistent with our forecast for 2015
  2. that 2014 would be 0.3 °C ± 0.21 °C warmer than 2004 (giving a range of 0.09 °C to 0.51 °C) – WMO figures show the global temperature for 2014 was 0.13 °C higher than that in 2004; which is within the range of the forecast

Adjustments to global temperature data

The article says we adjust our temperature figures ‘without justifying why it is scientifically appropriate’. In fact, numerous peer-reviewed science papers from research centres across the world provide detailed explanations of how and why datasets are adjusted to ensure they are as accurate as possible. This is available for anyone to view and analyse.

The conclusion that the world has warmed is supported by independent analysis of global temperature data.

European heatwaves

We published a paper stating heatwaves like that seen across Europe in 2003 would become more frequent under climate change. Subsequent observations back up these conclusions; 2006 saw comparable heat in the UK, 2010 saw intense heat across eastern Europe, and there’s been a prolonged heatwave across much of Europe this year (although not in the UK).

Weather extremes

Met Office research supports climate research centres around the world which concludes we expect more extremes of heat and rainfall as the world continues to warm. The article says this ‘simply hasn’t happened’ but in fact, research shows there has been an increase in both. While here in the UK, we have also seen an increase in the number of temperature and rainfall records.

The article also states ‘the Met Office did all it could to claim the rain that caused last year’s exceptional flooding… was the worst ever recorded.’ We’ve done studies (here and here) of the exceptional rainfall in winter 2013/14., which across southern England was one of the, if not the most, exceptional periods for winter rainfall in around 250 years. Here’s a fuller research piece about the winter 2013/14 storms.

Greenland ice

The article says that we claimed Greenland ice would melt in future due to global warming. We did, and we were clear that it would take thousands of years to happen, not ‘any time soon’. Observations show Greenland has been losing 300 gigatonnes (1 gigatonne is 1000,000,000 tonnes) of ice a year over the last 12 years and research shows surface temperatures have clearly risen.

Other claims

A series of other claims are made in the article, mostly focusing on our forecasts over seasonal to decadal timescales. The Met Office is at the forefront of this pioneering area of research and we are increasing skill in this area.

According to standards set by the World Meteorological Organization the Met Office is ranked as the most accurate global met service in the world. We will continue our research in collaboration with our global scientific partners to improve this vital area of science.

Record hot to record cold in a July of extremes

3 08 2015

While this year’s July may not have broken any monthly records – it was book-ended with some localised daily records at both extremes of the temperature spectrum.

The month started with the highest recorded July temperature in our UK climate records with 36.7C recorded at Heathrow on 1 July.

Then on the last day of the month, we saw the opposite extreme – with a number of stations across the UK breaking their lowest recorded July temperature.

Some of these stations have fairly long records – below we’ve highlighted those stations which broke their July low record which have observations going back for 30 years or more.

ALICE HOLT LODGE Surrey 3.9 03/07/1984 64 3.5
KEELE Staffordshire 5.2 16/07/2001 63 5
EXETER AIRPORT Devon 3.3 01/07/2011 50 2
CHIVENOR Devon 5.7 07/07/1996 38 5.6
PERSHORE Worcestershire 3 04/07/1965 36 2.7

These temperatures came about after several days of a northerly airflow which brought colder than average air over the UK. Clear skies allowed temperatures to drop rapidly overnight across many spots, leading to some of the localised records.

None of these new station records came close to breaking the all-time UK record for July of -2.5C which was set at both St Harmon (Powys) on 9 July 1986 and Lagganlia (Inverness-shire) on 15 July 1977. It’s worth noting here that lowest daily temperature records exclude stations above 500 metres above mean sea-level.

Other extremes for July 2015 are:

  • The wettest day was recorded at Cambridge Botanic Garden on the 16th, with 87.1mm of rain recorded in 24 hours. This is significantly more than the whole-month average for July at that station, which is 50.7mm.
  • The strongest gust was recorded at the Needles on the Isle of Wight on the 26th, with 60mph.
  • The Sunniest day was on Fair Isle, Shetland, on the 26th, with 16 hours of sunshine recorded.
  • The coldest temperature recorded during the month was a chilly -0.6C at Katesbridge in Down, Northern Ireland on 15 July – although this wasn’t a record for that station.
  • The warmest temperature was 36.7C recorded at Heathrow on 1 July – you can read more about that on our blog.

Mixed bag for the start of June

17 06 2015

It has been a very varied weather picture so far this month.

It’s been dry and warm for the south east of the UK, with some places around London having received less than 5 mm of rainfall so far and areas such as Essex, Hertfordshire, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire receiving less than 20% of the month’s average in places.

This year’s highest UK temperature so far, 26.8 °C, occurred at Kew Gardens (Greater London) on the 12 June.

Much of the rest of the UK has seen temperatures in general noticeably below average for June, continuing on from the rather cool May.  While rainfall totals are already close to the whole-month average in the central Scottish Highlands and in Nottinghamshire.

MeanTemp June

June began with two very unseasonal days, due to a deep low-pressure system to the west of the UK, bringing large amounts of rain and some strong winds to the UK, particularly southern areas. Apart from this, and some showery rain on the 5th/6th,

June so far has been relatively settled, especially over southern areas, although we saw a period of thundery outbreaks on 12th June affecting mainly southern areas due to a plume of very humid and warm unstable air moving in from France/Spain.

Mean temperatures for the UK so far this month have been 2 °C below normal in most areas, but colder in the far north-west of the UK and a little closer to normal in southern England. While the minimum temperatures have been well below average, by as much as 3 °C over some northern areas.

mean temperature sunshine duration rainfall
1-15 June 2015 Act (°C) Diff from avg (°C) Act (hrs) % of avg Act (mm) % of avg
UK 11.2 -1.8 117.6 69 31.3 43
England 12.5 -1.6 128.3 70 23.1 37
Wales 11.6 -1.6 121.6 70 41.8 49
Scotland 9.3 -2.0 99.3 66 43.9 49
N Ireland 10.3 -2.5 114.3 76 21.4 28

We would expect figures to be around 50% of the average figures by the mid month point.

For the latest weather forecast go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather

First half of April has been dry and warm

17 04 2015

Early statistics up to the 15th of April show that month so far has been generally settled and warm, with limited rainfall in most areas.

The mean temperature for the UK was 8.2C, which is 0.8C above the long-term (1981-2010) average for the whole month.

Daytime temperatures have risen to well above average in many areas, especially in the south, with the year’s highest temperature so far of 25.1C recorded at Frittenden in Kent on the afternoon of the 15th. This is the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 2011.

The UK as a whole has seen average maximum temperatures 1.4C above normal, though much closer to average in coastal parts of northwest England and western Scotland.

Map shows the UK mean temperature for 1-15 April compared to the whole month average.

Map shows the UK mean temperature for 1-15 April compared to the whole month average.

Rainfall has been well below normal so far in most areas. After 15 days of the month you’d expect about 50% of the full-month average to have fallen in a ‘normal’ April, but the UK has seen just 35% (25.2mm). However, there was some persistent and heavy rain across parts of northwest Scotland on 13th and 14th, and parts of western Scotland have had most of the whole-month average already.

It has also been rather a sunny month so far for most parts of the UK, with 63% of the full-month average already – again you would expect around 50% by mid-month.

The forecast for this weekend is for a good deal of dry and bright weather. However, it’s still far too early to judge how this April will finish overall, with half of the month still to add in to the statistics.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
1-15 Apr
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 12.9 1.4 92.8 63 25.2 35
England 14.0 1.6 98.4 63 14.1 24
Wales 13.5 1.9 92.0 60 20.1 22
Scotland 10.8 1.1 85.8 64 43.7 48
N Ireland 12.8 1.2 81.5 56 32.6 44

Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910. You can explore our climate data on our website. Clearly these are early month figures and the statistics at the end of the month will change somewhat.

March continues sunny theme for UK

31 03 2015

Following the sunniest winter in records dating back to 1929, March has continued the trend with above average sunshine hours according to early Met Office statistics.

Map showing sunshine hours between 1-29 March compared to the full-month long-term average.

Map showing sunshine hours between 1-29 March compared to the full-month long-term average.

Up to the 29th of the month, there had been 115.0 hours of sunshine which is slightly above the full-month long-term (1981-2010) average of 101.8 hours.

Northern Ireland has been particularly sunny compared to average, with 126.9 hours of sunshine so far this month – which is well ahead of its long-term March average of 97.7 hours.

It has also been a slightly drier than average month up to the 29th, with 80.4mm of rain for the UK so far making up about 85% of the long-term average for the whole month (95.1mm). We’d expect to have had about 94% of the full-month average by this stage of the month.

England has been particularly dry, with the 39.4mm notching up just 62% of the full month average (64.0mm).

Wales and Northern Ireland were also fairly dry (notching up 74% and 78% of their full month average respectively), whereas Scotland is slightly wetter than average – having seen 148.2mm of rain which is just over the full-month average.

When it comes to temperatures – the month has been spot-on average up to the 29th, with a mean temperature of 5.5C.

Looking closer at individual countries, England, Wales and Northern Ireland were all slightly colder than average (by no more than a few tenths of a degree), while Scotland again bucked the trend with slightly above average temperatures (by 0.3C).

Overall the month has been fairly average so far, with no records broken. The final figures are likely to change slightly once the final two days of the month are added.

You can explore Met Office statistics on our UK Climate pages.

UK statistics for 1-29 March:

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
1-29 March
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 5.5 0.0 115.0 113 80.4 85
England 6.1 -0.1 122.0 113 39.4 62
Wales 5.4 -0.4 118.7 117 86.1 74
Scotland 4.4 0.3 100.2 108 148.2 105
N Ireland 5.6 -0.2 126.9 130 74.3 78


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