Mixed bag for the start of June

17 06 2015

It has been a very varied weather picture so far this month.

It’s been dry and warm for the south east of the UK, with some places around London having received less than 5 mm of rainfall so far and areas such as Essex, Hertfordshire, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire receiving less than 20% of the month’s average in places.

This year’s highest UK temperature so far, 26.8 °C, occurred at Kew Gardens (Greater London) on the 12 June.

Much of the rest of the UK has seen temperatures in general noticeably below average for June, continuing on from the rather cool May.  While rainfall totals are already close to the whole-month average in the central Scottish Highlands and in Nottinghamshire.

MeanTemp June

June began with two very unseasonal days, due to a deep low-pressure system to the west of the UK, bringing large amounts of rain and some strong winds to the UK, particularly southern areas. Apart from this, and some showery rain on the 5th/6th,

June so far has been relatively settled, especially over southern areas, although we saw a period of thundery outbreaks on 12th June affecting mainly southern areas due to a plume of very humid and warm unstable air moving in from France/Spain.

Mean temperatures for the UK so far this month have been 2 °C below normal in most areas, but colder in the far north-west of the UK and a little closer to normal in southern England. While the minimum temperatures have been well below average, by as much as 3 °C over some northern areas.

mean temperature sunshine duration rainfall
1-15 June 2015 Act (°C) Diff from avg (°C) Act (hrs) % of avg Act (mm) % of avg
UK 11.2 -1.8 117.6 69 31.3 43
England 12.5 -1.6 128.3 70 23.1 37
Wales 11.6 -1.6 121.6 70 41.8 49
Scotland 9.3 -2.0 99.3 66 43.9 49
N Ireland 10.3 -2.5 114.3 76 21.4 28

We would expect figures to be around 50% of the average figures by the mid month point.

For the latest weather forecast go to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather





Summer returns but no heatwave

2 06 2015

There have been some stories in the press that a heatwave is on the way later this week.  Although we are expecting temperatures to rise over the coming days with some pleasant early summer weather, any very warm weather will be fairly short-lived.

After an unseasonably cold, wet and windy start to June and the meteorological summer, high pressure is expected to build across southern parts of the UK from Wednesday, resulting in a much quieter and more pleasant spell of weather.

By Friday, a plume of hot air from the continent could bring temperatures in the mid 20s°C  across south eastern parts of the country, but this in turn is likely to trigger some thundery showers. So although temperatures are likely to peak on Friday, this may not necessarily be accompanied by blue skies and sunshine, as a good deal of cloud is possible along with rather humid and hazy conditions.

Deputy Chief Meteorologist Martin Young said “although things will be a good deal warmer than of late, there still remains considerable uncertainty about how hot it will be and exactly where will see the highest temperatures on Friday, and the public should keep in touch with the latest forecasts”.

This coming weekend is likely to see temperatures a little lower than Friday’s in the south east, but plenty of pleasantly warm sunshine is expected across much of the UK with temperatures widely in the high teens, and reaching the low 20s°C  in parts of the south.





Sunny and dry April

30 04 2015

UPDATE: YOU CAN SEE AN UPDATED STORY ON APRIL’S WEATHER ON OUR WEBSITE.

The early April figures (1st – 28th April) show it was a sunny and warm month over all, with well above average sunshine almost everywhere. At the moment it ranks as the fifth sunniest April across the UK as a whole. Some locations, particularly in the East of the country, have so far seen almost 50% more sunshine than average.  East Scotland has had its sunniest April on record, beating 1942’s 200 hours of sunshine by 2 hours and it was the second sunniest for England East and NE with 212.4 – just behind 2011 with 216.9 5 hours.

April Sunshine Anomaly 1981-2010

April Sunshine Anomaly 1981-2010

Mean temperatures for the month have been also mostly above average. The mean temperature for the UK was 8.0 C, which is 0.6C above the long-term (1981-2010) average for the whole month. Daytime temperatures rose above average in many areas, especially in the south, with the year’s highest temperature so far (25.6 °C) recorded at Faversham (Kent) on the afternoon of the 15th. This is the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 2011.

However, in contrast, under often clear skies, minimum temperatures have been near or below average, particularly in Northern Ireland and parts of northern England and southern Scotland. Katesbridge (County Down) recorded -8.0 °C on 27th April.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
 April 2015
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 8.0 0.6 199.2 135 41.6 57
England 8.9 0.8 209.1 135 23.3 40
Wales 8.5 0.9 203.3 132 32.4 36
Scotland 6.4 0.3 183.0 136 72.2 79
N Ireland 7.7 0.1 193.2 132 52.8 70

April has been a dry month, particularly across the southern half of the UK with only a third, to a half, of normal rainfall quite widely and less than 20% in some places.

Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910. You can explore our climate data on our website. Clearly these are early month figures and the statistics at the end of the month will change somewhat.





Intense storm threatens Sydney

22 04 2015

Parts of New South Wales in southeast Australia have had severe flooding and wind damage over the past few days due to an intense low pressure system. Parts of the region have already seen more than 300mm (around a foot) of rainfall. Areas around Sydney have been affected, with flooding claiming three lives and causing evacuations of properties, as well as disrupting power and transport. Officials warned that hundreds of homes in the city are under threat from rising river levels, and it has been reported that the State Emergency Service (SES) have received nearly 10,000 calls for help and carried out more than 100 rescues.

Analysis chart from Austrlian Bureau of Meteorology

Analysis chart from Austrlian Bureau of Meteorology

The storm is now weakening and moving away southeastwards into the Tasman Sea, so conditions are expected to improve over the next 24 hours, however remnants of the system are likely to bring a further 50 to 75mm of rainfall to some coastal parts today, before conditions gradually become quieter.

Rapid Response image from NASA

Rapid Response image from NASA

For more information on current warnings and forecasts across New South Wales, visit the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website.





A very sunny winter on the cards

18 02 2015

Early figures show that while this winter is on track for fairly average temperatures and rainfall, it could be among the sunniest in our UK record dating back to 1929.

If we have average sunshine for the rest of February, it’s likely to be in the top few sunniest winters and could potentially beat the 2001 record of 189 hours.

Between 1 Dec -16 Feb many areas have already received more than their long-term average winter sunshine for the full season (1 Dec – 28 Feb), especially parts of the Midlands, eastern Scotland and north-east England.

December and January were both sunny across much of the country – especially eastern areas, while northern England and eastern Scotland have had a sunny February so far.

As we near the end of winter it looks as though temperatures will be close to the long-term average with December warmer than average, January near average and February so far being just below.

For many it has been a dry winter so far across southern, eastern and north-east England but relatively wet across Scotland, with the north-west having a wet December and January.

Dry start to February

The first half of February has seen some dry settled weather thanks to high pressure dominating the weather for much of the period.

Using figures from 1-16 February, temperatures have generally been around 1 to 1.5 °C below normal across the UK as a whole and clear skies have allowed fog and frosty conditions to develop at times.

Many areas have been on the dry side, with less than 20 percent of expected rainfall so far across large swathes of the country – we’d normally expect around half of the monthly average to have fallen by now.

Sunshine amounts have been variable but parts of northern England and eastern Scotland have already received almost the whole-month average.

 





One year on – A look back to last winter

17 02 2015

This weekend marked the one-year anniversary of the Valentine’s Day storm, which also marked the end of a particularly stormy three-month period. A new review article – ‘From months to minutes – exploring the value of high-resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/2014’ – written by 16 Met Office co-authors reviews the accuracy of our forecasting and warning of severe weather during winter 2013-14, and assesses its performance.

The paper concludes that the “prolonged period of high impact weather experienced in the United Kingdom during the winter of 2013/14 was very well forecast by the operational tools available across space and time scales.”

Here Huw Lewis, the paper’s lead author, and Derrick Ryall, Head of the Public Weather Service, look at the extreme weather last year and the role of the Met Office in communicating severe weather through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Winter 2013/2014 in the United Kingdom was remarkable. The country was battered by at least 12 major winter storms over a three month period and was officially assessed as the stormiest period that the United Kingdom has experienced for at least 20 years.

The series of storms resulted in the wettest winter in almost 250 years (according to the England and Wales precipitation series from 1766), significantly wetter than the previous wettest winter in 1914/1915.

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

The extreme weather caused widespread flooding throughout Southern England and coastal damage – most notably in the South West and Norfolk coasts. The impact of the severe winter storms on individuals, businesses and the government were substantial, including several fatalities, widespread power cuts and damaged infrastructure.

Recent advances in forecasting, technology and the scientific developments in meteorology have been considerable. These developments and improvements in accuracy mean that a four-day weather forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was just thirty years ago. During the course of last winter, the Met Office was able to use these forecasts to warn of any severe weather well in advance. In the case of the St Jude’s Day storm at the end of October 2013 warnings went out to the Government and the public five days before the storm even existed.

rainfall

As the accuracy of weather forecasts has evolved, so has the communication of the potential impacts of severe weather. The National Severe Weather Warning Service enables more ‘weather decisions’ which in turn help to minimise the consequences of severe weather. The Met Office was at the heart of the government response to the storms, providing advice on weather impacts through the National Severe Weather Warning Service and Civil Contingency Advisors. The Met Office also worked very closely with both the national and regional media, who in turn played a key role in ensuring that the public were fully informed about the potential impacts of any up-coming weather.

In addition to the Public Weather Service, commercial partners and customers were also provided with detailed updates throughout the period in order for them to plan effectively for logistical issues. Together, these advanced warnings helped authorities, businesses and individuals to be better prepared to take mitigating actions.

Driving further improvements in accuracy and therefore reducing the lead time and increasing the detail of severe weather warnings is one of the Met Office’s key priorities . The ultimate aim is to improve the potential for users to plan preventative measures for severe weather events much further ahead. Underpinning all of these developments is a continuing programme of scientific research and access to enhanced supercomputing over the next few years.





Severe weather around the world

26 11 2014

While the UK is currently experiencing relatively benign weather for the time of year, extreme conditions are expected in some other parts of the world.

Morocco and Spain

Last Saturday, Agadir in Morocco saw 90mm of rain fall in just 24 hours, which is around twice the monthly November average for the region of just 50mm. The subsequent flooding resulted in more than 30 fatalities.

Unfortunately, more severe weather is expected through Friday and into the weekend across Morocco, but particularly around the southwest of the country.

A combination of a deep area of low pressure, relatively warm sea temperatures and strong winds will bring heavy rainfall. 100-150mm of rain could fall across SW Morocco on Friday with further heavy rain likely on Saturday, and totals could be enhanced over higher ground. Conditions should improve into Sunday.

Through the weekend, the same area of low pressure is expected to bring very heavy rain across North East Spain. Rainfall totals for both days could reach 150-300mm, locally 400mm over higher ground, with a gradual improvement into start of next week.

Both areas could experience flooding and landslides from the intensity and duration of rainfall, as well as the rain that has already fallen in recent days.

Forecast Chart 1200 Sat 29 Nov 2014

Forecast Pressure Chart for Midday on Saturday 29th November

North East America

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure is bringing heavy rain and snowfall across parts of the Eastern Seaboard of North America, with the storm quickly moving northeast over the coming days.

The weather has been caused by an extreme temperature contrast between the warm weather of the Gulf Coast and the bitter cold across inland parts of North America.

While heavy rain is expected on the coast, snow is likely inland, mainly but not exclusively over higher ground. As tomorrow is Thanksgiving, this system poses a risk of travel disruption to what is normally one of the busiest holiday periods in the States. Over 4 inches of snow could fall over parts of the northeast, before the weather improves into the weekend.





Strong winds and heavy rain affect parts of the UK

6 10 2014

After an exceptionally dry September, the UK has seen its first bout of widespread heavy rain and strong winds so far this autumn. An area of low pressure centred close to Iceland has driven a cold front eastwards across Britain, bringing unsettled weather, particularly in the west.

Highest rainfall totals

Some of the highest rainfall totals are shown below (between 10pm (5th October) to 10am (6th October):

SITE NAME AREA RAINFALL (mm)
CAMBORNE CORNWALL 44.8
LLYNFRYNACH POWYS 43.8
SOUTH UIST WESTERN ISLES 41.4
CARDINHAM CORNWALL 40.2
KATESBRIDGE COUNTY DOWN 34.6

Strongest wind gusts

There have been some strong wind gusts in parts, particularly across exposed western areas. The highest gusts are below:

DATE/TIME SITE NAME AREA WIND GUST (MPH)
06/10/2014 03:00 SOUTH UIST RANGE WESTERN ISLES 84
06/10/2014 05:00 ALTNAHARRA NO 2 SUTHERLAND 78
06/10/2014 02:00 TIREE ARGYLL 77
06/10/2014 05:00 MACHRIHANISH ARGYLL 75
06/10/2014 01:00 MAGILLIGAN NO 2 LONDONDERRY 70

Earlier rainfall image across the UK:

Featured image

Weather outlook

The rain will continue to move east across the UK during the rest of today with drier conditions following for a time, before showers follow in places overnight. Although winds will tend to ease for most areas, further gales are expected across northeast Scotland through tomorrow. During this unsettled weather we’d encourage everyone to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and national severe weather warnings.





Heavy rainfall and floods in India and Pakistan

10 09 2014

Heavy rainfall has devastated parts of India and Pakistan in recent days, leading to some of the worst flooding in decades.

The extreme conditions were caused by a tropical depression associated with the ongoing monsoon season which tracked northwards across the countries, bringing exceptional rainfall totals over short time periods.

In the Punjab province of Pakistan, some areas saw around 300mm (12 inches) of rain falling in less than 24 hours. This is close to the amount of rainfall we would expect through the whole of the winter in the UK.

Although the heaviest of the rain has now eased, water levels in some parts of the countries are continuing to rise.

Hundreds of people are thought to have died as a result of the floods, with officials saying that around 400,000 people are stranded in Indian-administered Kashmir. Around 700,000 people have also been told to leave their homes in Pakistan due to rising water levels.





Cool, wet August ends fairly average summer

29 08 2014

After a dry and warm start, summer 2014 is set to end on a rather average note – with temperatures and rainfall close to normal levels for the season.

Using figures up to 27 August and then assuming average conditions for the final few days of the month, Met Office statistics show the UK mean temperature for this summer will be around 14.8C. This is just 0.5C above the long term average (1981-2010).

Rainfall overall is close to average, with the UK having seen 246.7mm of rain – which is just over the long-term average of 241.0mm. Rainfall from the final few days of August will add to this number, so overall the summer will be slightly wetter than average.

As ever when looking over a whole season, the statistics mask some big variations between each month.

June and July were both characterised by drier and warmer than average conditions across the UK which meant the summer was already one of the best we’ve seen in recent years.

UK rainfall as a percentage of the long-term (1981-2010) average

Map showing August UK rainfall as a percentage of the long-term (1981-2010) average for the month

August bucked that trend, however, with cooler and wetter than average weather. Taken together, this has led to the fairly average final statistics for summer.

Looking specifically at the early August figures, also released today, the UK mean temperature up to the 27th of the month is 13.8C which is 1.1C below the long-term average. This ranks it as currently the coolest August since 1993, but that could change when the final few days of the month are added.

August is also the first month since November 2013 to have been cooler than average, breaking an eight month run.

In terms of rainfall, August has been much wetter than average, with 127.1mm of rain which is 142% of the long-term average (89.5mm). This makes it the 18th wettest August in the records, but it may climb higher when the figures for the whole month are available.

 

Mean Temperature Rainfall
Summer* Actual (°C)
Diff from Avg Actual (mm)
% of Avg
UK 14.8 0.5 258.2 107
England 15.9 0.4 211.6 109
Wales 14.8 0.3 257.5 90
Scotland 13.1 0.6 338.4 111
N Ireland 14.3 0.4 244.6 96

*Please note these are projected numbers that include statistics from 1 June to 27 August, then assume average conditions for the final few days of the season. They may not accurately represent the final full-season figures.

 

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall
August** Actual (°C)
Diff from Avg Actual (hours)
% of Avg Actual (mm)
% of Avg
UK 13.8 -1.1 154.2 95 127.1 142
England 14.9 -1.2 169.7 93 103.4 149
Wales 13.9 -1.0 152.3 91 128.2 119
Scotland 11.9 -1.1 132.4 99 169.0 145
N Ireland 13.3 -1.0 134.2 99 112.8 116

** Please note these are preliminary statistics from 1-27 August. The final figures will change once statistics from the final few days of the month are included.








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