Another unusual January hurricane forms

14 01 2016

Just two days ago we reported how Pali had become a very unusual out-of-season hurricane in the North Pacific. This afternoon another unusual hurricane has formed – this time in the North Atlantic. The hurricane season for both these regions usually runs from about June to November.

Earlier in the week a non-tropical area of low pressure developed near Bermuda. This was a depression primarily driven by the clash of cold air from the north and warm air from the south, similar to the kind of depressions we experience in the UK. Strong winds were recorded on Bermuda as the depression tracked to the east. Then in the last two days the depression has started to develop a concentrated area of storm clouds near its centre to the extent that the National Hurricane Center declared it to be ‘Subtropical Storm Alex’. Being ‘subtropical’ is a hybrid state for storms which exhibit some, but not all the characteristics of a fully tropical storm. Alex became the first subtropical storm to develop in the North Atlantic in January since 1978.

In the last day Alex has continued to develop a strong central mass of storm clouds rotating around a small eye and the National Hurricane Center has now designated it as a full blown hurricane. Alex is the first North Atlantic hurricane to exist in the month of January since Alice in 1955 and the first to actually form in the month of January since 1938.

Hurricane Alex at 1315 UTC on 14 January 2016 Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Alex at 1315 UTC on 14 January 2016                                                  Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

 

Alex is currently situated about 1000 km to the west of the Canary Islands. It is expected to move northwards bringing stormy conditions to the Azores where hurricane warnings have been issued. Winds over 75 mph and 100 mm rain or more is possible. An area of high pressure is expected to develop over the UK this weekend which should keep Alex over the ocean and away from our shores. Alex is eventually expected to be absorbed into a larger depression in the Atlantic near the southern tip of Greenland on Sunday.

Official warnings for the tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Hurricane Alex at 1330 UTC on 14 January 2016 Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Alex at 1330 UTC on 14 January 2016





Record breaking Hurricane Patricia expected to make landfall over Mexico

23 10 2015

Hurricane Patricia has developed in the eastern Pacific and after a period of rapid intensification has become the most intense hurricane in the eastern Pacific in recorded history. US Air Force aircraft have been flying reconnaissance missions in and around the hurricane and their latest data suggest 1-minute average winds are near 200 mph and the central pressure is 880 mb. This beats previous records in the east Pacific set by Hurricane Linda in 1997 and also beats the Atlantic record set by Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Only in the western Pacific have there been a handful of tropical cyclones with a lower central pressure, and Patricia is even more intense than notorious tropical cyclones such as Typhoon Haiyan which struck the Philippines in 2013. The lowest pressure for a tropical cyclone globally was 870 mb set by Typhoon Tip in 1979.

Image courtesy of NOAA

Image courtesy of NOAA

 

Many intense tropical cyclones peak in intensity over oceans and either dissipate without making landfall or strike land at a much lower intensity. However, Hurricane Patricia is expected to make landfall over the Pacific coast of Mexico within little more than 12 hours. Thus, if any weakening occurs before landfall it will be fairly minimal.

Records dating back to 1949 indicate that no category 5 hurricane has ever struck the Pacific coast of Mexico, so potentially another record could soon be set. Based on latest National Hurricane Center forecasts landfall is likely just to the west of Manzanillo this evening local time (early hours of Saturday UK time). Whilst the strongest winds are likely to be experienced close to the coast, Patricia is expected to bring heavy rain well inland over the next day or two with several hundred millimetres possible.

Latest official forecast track for Hurricane Patricia from the National Hurricane Center

Latest official forecast track for Hurricane Patricia from the
National Hurricane Center

The exceptionally active tropical cyclone season seen across the North Pacific Ocean is primarily as a result of the strong El Niño which has existed for the last few months. This has raised sea surface temperatures well above normal in this region and also made atmospheric conditions conducive to development of frequent and strong tropical cyclones. Here are some of the recent statistics on tropical cyclone activity in 2015, bearing in mind that any records relate to the era of reliable satellite data coverage from the 1960s and 1970s onwards.

  • 15 hurricanes in the east Pacific east of the Dateline – tied with previous record
  • Nine hurricanes in the east Pacific east of the Dateline have reached category 4 or 5 – more than any previous year
  • 22 hurricanes or typhoons across the northern hemisphere have reached category 4 or 5 – four more than the previous record
  • Three major (category 3 or above) tropical cyclones have been active simultaneously in the North Pacific four times on record – two of those occasions have been in 2015.
  • Tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific region (140-180°W longitude) has been about six times its normal level.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Statistics on recent northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity are courtesy of Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (@philklotzbach).





Typhoon Dujuan strikes Taiwan

28 09 2015

Typhoon Dujuan has today (Monday 28 September) made landfall over Taiwan on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean with sustained winds well in excess of 100 mph. Dujuan is expected to drop large amounts of rainfall – 500mm is possible – over the mountainous interior of the island which could result in serious flooding and landslides. Within the first few hours of the typhoon affecting Taiwan 142mm of rainfall has already been recorded in Taipei.

Dujuan comes just seven weeks after Typhoon Soudelor struck the same part of northern Taiwan with a similar intensity. Soudelor caused flooding, destruction due to strong winds and some loss of life. Dujuan is expected to take a similar track to Soudelor – crossing the Taiwan Strait and reaching the Pacific coast of mainland China tomorrow (Tuesday 29 September) before moving inland.

Typhoon Dujuan just prior to landfall on 28 September 2015 Image courtesy of JMA

Typhoon Dujuan just prior to landfall on 28 September 2015
Image courtesy of JMA.

Typhoon Dujuan after making landfall on 28 September 2015 Image courtesy of MTSAT

Typhoon Dujuan after making landfall on 28 September 2015
Image courtesy of MTSAT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dujuan and Soudelor are two of many strong typhoons and hurricanes which have occurred across the Pacific Ocean this year. One of the main contributing factors to the high level of storm activity is the strong El Niño which has developed. This is characterised by a marked warming of the tropical east Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño can alter weather patterns in many parts of the world and in particular results in increased Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The last time an El Niño of the current strength occurred was in 1997-8 when high levels of Pacific tropical cyclone activity were also experienced.

In total there have been 43 tropical cyclones across the whole of the Pacific Ocean this year. 19 of these have acquired ‘major’ status – category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The northern hemisphere season usually continues through October and November and in some seasons extends into December as well.

In addition to Typhoon Dujuan there are also two other tropical storms in the Pacific at present. Tropical Storm Niala is located in the central Pacific just south of Hawaii. It is not expected to impact Hawaii directly as it gradually weakens. The central part of the North Pacific Ocean surrounding Hawaii has seen a record number of tropical storms form this season, although Hawaii itself has avoided a direct strike from any of the storms so far.

Over in the far eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Marty is just under hurricane strength and is moving slowly towards the coast of Mexico. It is not certain yet whether Marty will make landfall, but a tropical storm watch has been issued for coastal areas including the resort of Acapulco.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Central Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and east Pacific and Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Active Pacific tropical cyclone season continues

2 09 2015

Early September marks the half way point in the northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season and is often the time when we see the highest levels of activity – so how is this season shaping up?

As reported in a news release last week, tropical cyclone activity across the north Pacific has been extremely high this year with numerous intense typhoons in the west Pacific and hurricanes in the east Pacific. These are different names for the same thing – hurricanes occur east of the International Dateline and typhoons to the west.

There has been a fair amount of discussion recently in social and news media as to how ‘record-breaking’ this season has been so far. Reliable records only go back to about the 1960s or 1970s when satellite coverage of the tropical oceans became available. However, bearing this in mind, here are some of the remarkable statistics for the year up to 1st September:

  • There have been 15 tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere reaching category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – 6 more than the previous record.
  • Tropical cyclone activity across the northern hemisphere as measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (a combined measure of intensity and longevity) is 200% of normal and over 20% above any other year.
  • Six hurricanes have crossed the central Pacific region – more than any other year.
  • Three north Pacific hurricanes have crossed the International Dateline – more than any other year.
  • Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena were all at category 4 simultaneously in the Pacific east of the International Dateline – the first time three major hurricanes have been recorded at the same time in this region.
IDL TIFF file

(L-R) Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena on 30 August 2015. Image courtesy of NASA.

Why the high levels of tropical cyclone activity?

One of the main contributing factors is the strong El Niño which has developed. This is characterised by a marked warming of the tropical east Pacific Ocean. Temperature anomalies here are currently at their highest since 1997-98, when high levels of Pacific tropical cyclone activity were also experienced.

What about the Atlantic?

The existence of El Niño conditions usually results in a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. This is primarily as a result of strong wind shear (winds varying in strength and direction with height) across large parts of the region. There have been six Atlantic tropical storms so far this season. Recently Danny became a major hurricane just east of the Caribbean, but quickly succumbed to the strong wind shear as it entered the Caribbean Sea. Erika threatened to develop into a hurricane, but again dissipated in the Caribbean due to a combination of high wind shear and interaction with islands such as Hispaniola.

In the far eastern Atlantic, conditions were favourable enough for a hurricane to quickly spin up as a cluster of thunderstorms moved off the west coast of Africa a few days ago. Fred became the most easterly forming hurricane in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the first recorded hurricane to hit the Cape Verde Islands since 1892. However, as Fred has continued to move north-westwards it has also been subject to strong wind shear and is weakening rapidly.

What about the rest of the year?

Seasonal model predictions suggest that the strong El Niño will persist for several months to come. Hence it is likely that the high tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific will continue for the remainder of the season. The Atlantic is expected to have a quiet season overall, but this does not exclude the possibility of the development of a major hurricane. There are notable instances of damaging hurricanes occurring in otherwise quiet seasons such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992 which caused devastation in Miami, Florida.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Central Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and east Pacific and Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Statistics on recent northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity are courtesy of Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (@philklotzbach).





Record levels of Pacific tropical cyclone activity continue

13 07 2015

The Pacific Ocean has seen an extremely high number of tropical cyclones during the early part of this season, with several more tropical storms developing over the weekend.

Across the whole Pacific Ocean nine tropical cyclones have formed in the last two weeks. The recent high level of activity is a response to the recent strong episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation combined with the developing El Niño conditions as described in our previous blog.

Several of the recent tropical cyclones have formed over open ocean and have caused little or no disruption. However, others have either affected land areas or are set to do so this week.

Typhoon Chan-hom passed very close to the coast of China at the weekend, with over a million people having to be evacuated from the Shanghai region. Whilst coastal areas saw heavy rain and powerful waves, they were spared the strongest winds as the eye of the typhoon stayed offshore. Chan-hom brought heavy rain to North Korea with 400mm having been recorded at Kimchaek on the northeast coast.

Typhoon Nangka on 13 July 2015. Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoon Nangka on 13 July 2015.
Image courtesy of The National Institute of Informatics

Typhoon Nangka has just turned northwards in the west Pacific and looks set for landfall over south-western Japan on Thursday bringing the risk of strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge.

Across the other side of the Pacific, Tropical Storm Dolores looks set to become a hurricane as it runs parallel to the Mexican coast. It is most likely to stay out at sea, but there remains a low possibility that it could turn towards the coast in a few days time.

Pacific records

The recent high levels of tropical cyclone activity have resulted in some remarkable statistics.

  • Seven tropical cyclones (including four major typhoons) occurred in the western North Pacific before the end of May beating previous records.
  • The three tropical cyclones which have formed in the central North Pacific this week formed earlier in the season than any previous tropical cyclone in this region. There have never been three storms form in such quick succession in this region.
  • Eight tropical cyclones have formed across the eastern and central North Pacific so far this year – the earliest in the season this has ever occurred.
  • Across the whole North Pacific there have been 19 tropical cyclones so far this year. Taking into account their strength and longevity this amounts to a record 321% of normal activity for this point in the season.

Atlantic calm

By contrast the Atlantic remains very quiet. Two short-lived tropical storms have formed so far (Ana and Bill), but conditions are not conducive for further development in the near future in the tropical Atlantic:

  • Sea surface temperatures in tropical areas are up to 2°C below normal values
  • Wind shear (which inhibits tropical cyclone development) has been persistently high for several weeks.
  • Sea level pressure has been at record high values in the last month.

The growing El Niño is likely to maintain conditions which suppress tropical cyclone activity in the tropical Atlantic for the foreseeable future. However, some tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out – particularly outside of the tropics at higher latitudes where conditions are not as harsh as those described above.

Further Information

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms on StormTracker and via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Arthur becomes first Atlantic hurricane of the season

3 07 2014

Hurricane Arthur has become the first hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season, which started at the beginning of June.

Arthur is currently located close to the coast of south-eastern USA and is expected to move north-east, parallel to the coast, in the next few days.

Although the centre of the hurricane may only graze the coast it is likely to produce a storm surge several feet above normal tide levels and cause strong surf and rip currents along stretches of the US east coast.

Hurricane warnings have been issued by the National Hurricane Center for the North Carolina coast.

Hurricane Arthur - Image from NASA’s Aqua satellite courtesy of Colorado State University

Hurricane Arthur – Image from NASA’s Aqua satellite courtesy of Colorado State University

Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic mostly indicate that there is likely to be a slightly below normal level of activity this season.

The Met Office forecast is for the most likely number of tropical storms in the season to be 10 with six of these likely to become hurricanes.

Further details can be found in our North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast web page.

Meanwhile in the west Pacific a tropical depression has formed just south of the island of Guam.

This is expected to strengthen into a powerful typhoon over the weekend and could potentially threaten parts of Japan or Korea by the middle of next week.

Official forecasts of Atlantic and east Pacific tropical storms are provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japanese Meteological Agency (JMA).

The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Humberto is the first hurricane in a quiet season so far

11 09 2013

The Atlantic hurricane season is usually reaching its peak during the first half of September, but so far the season has been very quiet.

Humberto has just become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. In the last 70 years only one season has seen the first hurricane form later.

humberto_20130911_1000z

There are various ways of measuring tropical storm activity including the number of storms, the number of hurricanes and something called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index. The latter measure takes into account both the strength and duration of storms and so gives a good indication of how active a season it has been. Whilst there have been eight tropical storms in the Atlantic so far, many have been weak and short-lived and thus the ACE Index is only running at 27% of where it would be in an average season at this time in the year.

It is not only the Atlantic which is seeing low levels of tropical storm activity. ACE Index across the whole northern hemisphere is running at 42% of average for this point in the season. There have only been two major typhoons in the west Pacific, which is an unusually low number.

It is worth noting that a quiet start to the Atlantic season does not necessarily mean the season will remain quiet. For example, in 2001 there had only been five tropical storms to this point in the season with just one becoming a hurricane. However, the remainder of the season saw another 10 tropical storms of which eight became hurricanes.

Official forecasts of current Atlantic tropical storms are provided by the National Hurricane Center. Visit our tropical cyclone pages for more information or follow @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Hurricane Sandy heads for the northeast USA

29 10 2012

As many as 60 million people across 12 US states are thought to be in the path of Hurricane Sandy, which has been given the nickname “Frankenstorm”.

Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northward, parallel to the US East Coast, and is expected to make a turn towards the northeast US coast later on today. However, strong winds and stormy conditions are already being felt from North Carolina to New York.

Hurricane Sandy heads towards the northeast coast of the USA 29 October 2012

Sandy looks set to impact parts of the mid-Atlantic and north-eastern USA like last year’s ‘Halloween Nor’easter’ storm of 2011 and the ‘Perfect Storm’ of 1991. As Sandy approaches land the warm moist air circulating within the hurricane will meet cold air spreading south into the north-eastern USA from Canada. This provides the potential for the storm to develop further and produce severe winds, heavy rain, flooding and even snow on its north and west flanks as it hits land.

Uncertainties remain as to the precise location and timing of landfall. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Sandy over the Mid-Atlantic states, very close to Delaware and New Jersey, later on tonight or Tuesday morning. However, due to the large size of the storm (around 600 miles across), the impacts from Sandy will be widespread and not just limited to where the centre of the storm makes landfall.

Storm surge, combined with high tide, could cause extensive flooding to low lying areas, between 4 and 8 inches of rain could fall over portions of the northeast coast and 2 to 3 ft of snow is expected in the mountains of West Virginia.

Official National Hurricane Center forecast for Sandy on Monday 29 October 2012

This is the second time in two years that New York will have been impacted by a tropical system. Only last year Hurricane Irene travelled up the east coast of the US and made landfall with winds of 65 mph in Brooklyn, New York. However, Sandy could have a larger impact than Irene due to it’s larger size, stronger winds and greater storm surge.

Hurricane Sandy has already cut a swathe through the Caribbean, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge to Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas. At least 60 people have been killed, properties damaged and flooded, and large parts of Jamaica were left without power.

The National Hurricane Center and the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are providing warnings and advice to those who are potentially at risk from the storm. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of hurricane tracks from its global forecast model to NHC which it uses along with guidance from other models in the production of its forecasts and guidance.

You can keep up to date with tropical cyclones around the world on our website or follow us on Twitter.

You can find out how tropical cyclones, including hurricanes, form in this video





Hurricane Sandy threatens severe weather for US East Coast

26 10 2012

Over the last two days Hurricane Sandy has cut a swathe through the Caribbean bringing strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge to Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas. At least 20 people have been killed, properties damaged and flooded and at one point large parts of Jamaica were without power.

Hurricane Sandy is now moving away from the Bahamas, but is still very close to the south-east coast of the USA. The east coast of Florida is experiencing stormy conditions as Sandy moves northwards over the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Sandy 26 October 2012

Sandy looks likely to turn north-west early next week and impact parts of the mid-Atlantic and north-eastern USA as did last year’s ‘Halloween Nor’easter’ storm of 2011 and the ‘Perfect Storm’ of 1991. As Sandy approaches land the warm moist air circulating within the hurricane looks sets to meet cold air spreading south into the north-eastern USA from Canada. This provides the potential for the storm to develop further and produce severe winds, heavy rain, flooding and even snow on its north and west flanks as it hits land.

Uncertainties remain as to the precise location and timing of landfall. However, the area most likely to be affected stretches from the states of Maryland to Massachusetts, including the populous cities of Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

Official National Hurricane Center Forecast for Sandy on Friday 26 October

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are providing warnings and advice to those who are potentially at risk from the storm. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of hurricane tracks from its global forecast model to NHC which it uses along with guidance from other models in the production of its forecasts and guidance.

You can keep up to date with tropical cyclones around the world on our website or follow us on Twitter.





Further hurricanes expected in west Atlantic

9 09 2012

The Met Office has been closely monitoring Tropical Storm Leslie during the past week, especially because of the possibility of the impact on Bermuda. It now looks like Leslie will strengthen to Hurricane Force as it tracks 100-150 miles east of Bermuda late on Sunday. Therefore, although around 100 mm of rain and gale force winds are expected, no significant impact is expected across Bermuda, although dangerous rip currents are predicted by the US National Hurricane Centre.

This graphic shows the position and forecats track tropical storm Leslie. The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low.

This graphic shows the position and forecast track tropical storm Leslie. The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical.

All available forecasts track Hurricane Leslie, and Hurricane Michael, which is situated to the east, quickly north through Monday and Tuesday.

Meanwhile, an active cold front which was responsible for the rare New York tornadoes and the high profile disruption to the US Tennis Open Championships will continue to move east from the eastern seaboard of North America.

Hurricanes Leslie and Michael and this cold front are expected to converge east of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland bringing the risk of 100-200 mm of rainfall to the area through Monday and Tuesday.

Probabilities of surface wind speeds exceeding 58 mph

Probabilities of surface wind speeds exceeding 58 mph from US National Hurricane Centre

However the main risk remains to the marine community with wind speeds in excess of 65 knots from late Monday to early Wednesday. Combined with eight metre waves and potentially a maximum wave height of up to 16 metres there will be hazardous sea conditions across the Grand Banks fishing grounds which is the same area as was impacted by the ‘Perfect Storm’ in the Autumn of 1991.

Beyond this, the remnants of this combined storm may swing east and push across the Atlantic, influencing the weather over the north east Atlantic toward the end of the week. Currently the area of low pressure is expected to push well to the north of the UK, but will potentially push a frontal south across the UK bringing rain and gale force winds to the north on Thursday and Friday. However there is still a good deal to play for in the forecast for the end of the week and you should keep up to date with the latest weather forecasts and warnings on the Met Office website.

Pakistan Monsoon brings exceptionally heavy rain.

Elsewhere, the Pakistan Monsoon has brought some exceptionally heavy rain to the region. Khanpur, on or close to the Indus River in Pakistan reported 147mm of rainfall in just 12 hours up to midnight last night UK time. Such heavy and intense rainfall associated with the Indian Monsoon is likely to bring significant and rapid localised flooding issues to this area in the coming days. 

Across Sindh and Punjab provinces over the last 72 hours stations have been reporting varying 12-hourly totals with anything between 10 and 60 mm at times.  

Forecasts indicate that rain is expected to continue for another 48-72 hours, with peak intensity over next one to two days. So the situation could worsen initially before events begin to ease off slowly during the early part of next week.








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