Predictions of a below average Atlantic hurricane season

21 05 2015

The Met Office Atlantic tropical storm forecast for 2015 is for eight tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance (the ‘70% range’) that the number will be in the range six to ten. This is below-normal relative to the 1980–2010 average of 12 tropical storms.

The forecast number of hurricanes — tropical storms with winds of at least 74 mph — is five (70% range three to seven); the average number of hurricanes is six.

Tropical storm Ana on 8 May 2015 as it approached the South Carolina coast. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Tropical storm Ana on 8 May 2015 as it approached the South Carolina coast. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index — a measure of the strength and duration of storms over the season — is 74 (70% range 40 to 108); the average ACE index is 104.

The North Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June to November, but has already seen one tropical storm (Ana) make landfall in South Carolina.

The evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the next few months will play a large part in the North Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecast centres around the world have now declared that an El Niño has begun in the tropical Pacific.

Joanne Camp, climate scientist at the Met Office, said: “El Niño conditions in the Pacific can hinder the development of tropical storms in the Atlantic, so how this develops will be important for the storm season ahead.”

While it is still too early to determine with confidence how strong this El Niño might be, forecast models from centres around the suggest this El Niño is likely to strengthen during the coming few months.

The tropical storm forecast is produced using the Met Office’s seasonal forecast system, GloSea5.

It has higher resolution than its predecessor, with better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storm and hurricane development.

For regular updates on tropical cyclones worldwide follow @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Record May temperatures for Spain

14 05 2015

Update: On Thursday, records were broken once again across southeast Spain. Valencia equalled Lanzarote Airport’s 42.6C from the previous day. Other stations in the Valenciana region exceeded this value, with Xativa and Carcaixent reaching 42.7C and 42.9C respectively; however these are as yet unconfirmed so are not official. Either way, not only is this 42.6C a new Spanish record for May, but a European-wide May record.  

Meanwhile, the heat is spreading to other parts of Europe, with extreme warmth expected today along the north coast of Sicily and parts of mainland southern Italy.

A new record maximum temperature for Spain was set yesterday, with many local records also broken, and the heat continues today in the southeast.

Iberia Temps

The new record of 42.6C was recorded at Lanzarote Airport in the Canary Islands, beating the previous May record for Spain by a relatively large 2.5 degrees. It also beats the Lanzarote station’s own previous highest May temperature by a whopping 6 degrees.

The previous May record in Spain was 40.1C at Cordoba on the mainland, and Cordoba itself recorded a new May station record on Wednesday with 41.2C.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Further records could be broken today in parts of Andalucía, Mercia and Valenciana as air continues to feed in from North Africa. However, a cold front is pushing gradually southeastwards across Spain, bringing cooler air across much of the country by the end of the week.





Possible record heat in Spain, while heavy rain and snow affect the Alps

13 05 2015

Parts of Spain, Portugal and southern France are experiencing unusually high temperatures at the moment. On Tuesday, Seville recorded 38C, and today will be another very hot day for the time of year, with temperatures widely expected to reach the low to mid 30s Celsius.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

The hottest conditions will be across the Andalucía region of southern Spain. If temperatures reach or exceed 40C in Seville today this will be a new May record. Cooler conditions will gradually spread from the north tomorrow, although another very hot day is likely in southern Spain. Temperatures are then expected to return closer to average in all regions by Friday.

Meanwhile, southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and northern Italy are at risk of heavy rainfall over the coming days, with heavy snow possible on Friday across the Alps. Up to 150mm of rain could fall within 48 hours, possibly leading to flash flooding and landslides in this mountainous region of Europe, as well as increasing the avalanche risk due to fresh snowfall.

Whilst neither of these two weather events in Europe will affect the UK, we are expecting some heavy rain of our own on Thursday. The band of rain will move across southwest England during the early hours and edge slowly northeastwards through the day, but become almost stationary across parts of Wales, central-southern and southeast England. However, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain largely dry and fine.





Ten Tors

8 05 2015

This weekend sees the 2015 Ten Tors challenge and once again, the Met Office will be providing tailored forecasts for the organisers to help with event planning and coordination. This year, for the first time, an Operational Meteorologist will also be at Okehampton Camp for the weekend, providing the latest information on weather conditions across Dartmoor throughout the event to help the organisers make the necessary decisions to keep the teams safe.

Forecast

Chief forecaster Dan Suri said “The event may start on rather a wet note, with some heavy showers likely on Saturday morning”. These showers will clear later in the morning leaving a drier and brighter afternoon. It will be breezy too, making it feel quite chilly in the wind. Saturday night will be largely dry, but it is likely to become murky through the early hours of Sunday, with occasional drizzle and hill fog. The cloud base will probably lift a little during Sunday morning, but higher parts of the Moor are likely to stay murky, and whilst the odd brighter spell may develop with shelter from the wind, it will remain largely cloudy. Still quite breezy on Sunday too.

The challenge

The weather plays a major part in the successful completion of the event for everyone taking part. Around 400 teams of six take part in the challenge to complete the course. There are three different course lengths, depending on the age and ability of the team:

  • 35 miles
  • 45 miles
  • 55 miles.

The idea of the challenge is for the teenagers to become self-sufficient for the weekend – carrying everything they’ll need for the trek and making their own decisions.

At this time of year, conditions can be varied, from torrential rain to hot sunshine.

Ten_Tors_infographic_2015

For more information about the event, including the latest weather and a video explaining the variety of conditions you might expect on Dartmoor, take a look at our events pages.

Our National Park forecast service includes forecasts for a wide range of locations on Dartmoor, many of which are included within the Ten Tors event. You can also find forecast information on our weather pages.





Sunny and dry April

30 04 2015

UPDATE: YOU CAN SEE AN UPDATED STORY ON APRIL’S WEATHER ON OUR WEBSITE.

The early April figures (1st – 28th April) show it was a sunny and warm month over all, with well above average sunshine almost everywhere. At the moment it ranks as the fifth sunniest April across the UK as a whole. Some locations, particularly in the East of the country, have so far seen almost 50% more sunshine than average.  East Scotland has had its sunniest April on record, beating 1942’s 200 hours of sunshine by 2 hours and it was the second sunniest for England East and NE with 212.4 – just behind 2011 with 216.9 5 hours.

April Sunshine Anomaly 1981-2010

April Sunshine Anomaly 1981-2010

Mean temperatures for the month have been also mostly above average. The mean temperature for the UK was 8.0 C, which is 0.6C above the long-term (1981-2010) average for the whole month. Daytime temperatures rose above average in many areas, especially in the south, with the year’s highest temperature so far (25.6 °C) recorded at Faversham (Kent) on the afternoon of the 15th. This is the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 2011.

However, in contrast, under often clear skies, minimum temperatures have been near or below average, particularly in Northern Ireland and parts of northern England and southern Scotland. Katesbridge (County Down) recorded -8.0 °C on 27th April.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
 April 2015
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 8.0 0.6 199.2 135 41.6 57
England 8.9 0.8 209.1 135 23.3 40
Wales 8.5 0.9 203.3 132 32.4 36
Scotland 6.4 0.3 183.0 136 72.2 79
N Ireland 7.7 0.1 193.2 132 52.8 70

April has been a dry month, particularly across the southern half of the UK with only a third, to a half, of normal rainfall quite widely and less than 20% in some places.

Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910. You can explore our climate data on our website. Clearly these are early month figures and the statistics at the end of the month will change somewhat.





Anniversary of the death of FitzRoy – founding father of the Met Office

30 04 2015
Vice Admiral Robert Fitzroy

Vice Admiral Robert Fitzroy

Today (30th April) is the 150th anniversary of the death of Vice Admiral Robert FitzRoy, the founder of the Met Office. FitzRoy joined the Navy when he was just 12 years old and made his name as commander of several ships including HMS Beagle, made famous by the voyages of Charles Darwin. FitzRoy met Darwin in 1831 inviting him aboard the Beagle, as a fellow gentleman, to keep him company during the long journey, thus changing the course of history forever. Today the voyage of the Beagle is synonymous with Darwin, however, as the ship’s captain, FitzRoy played a crucial role in the journey. FitzRoy became an MP during the 1840s and introduced a Bill dramatically improving safety at sea by introducing qualifications for ships masters and mates. FitzRoy continued to advance his naval career and was appointed Director of the Meteorological Office in 1854. The dawn of weather forecasting

First Daily Weather forecast, The Times, 1 Aug 1861

First Daily Weather forecast, The Times, 1 Aug 1861

Following the disastrous Royal Charter Storm of October 1859, FitzRoy lobbied for permission to establish a Gale Warning Service for the protection of shipping. Observations from stations around the British Isles were sent to London and gale warnings were issued when necessary. Using a system of cones and drums, the direction from which the gale would strike was displayed for ships both in port and passing along the coast. Possibly the first national forecasting and warning system in the world the service continues to this day as the ‘Shipping Forecast’. FitzRoy felt that ‘prediction’ and ‘foretelling’ sounded too unscientific for a process based on the developing science of meteorology so he coined the term ‘weather forecast’. His first public weather forecast, published in his own hand writing, was published in the Times on 1 August 1861. Although he had been given Government backing to establish a Gale Warning service, FitzRoy had no permission to establish public forecasts, nevertheless they were very popular. Queen Victoria used to contact FitzRoy for forecasts a few days before making journeys to Osborne House on the Isle of Wight. Indeed, on the last day he attended the office it was to telegraph a forecast to the Queen. Scientific and meteorological work FitzRoy felt strongly that not enough was done to protect the lives of sailors and fishermen and he devised a new barometer for use in fishing harbours.  They were placed where all could see them and were designed to be easy to read and interpret, FitzRoy’s barometers were credited with saving hundreds of lives and FitzRoy paid for many of them himself, exhausting his own personal fortune.  A few barometers survive in situ at fishing ports around the British Isles, including Mousehole in Cornwall. FitzRoy’s The Weather Book: A manual of practical meteorology, written during a Summer Holiday in 1863, was a leading work on meteorological science and techniques and marked the beginning of an era of major advances in meteorology and guided the science into the 20th century. Death and legacy FitzRoy was a pioneer of meteorology and forecasting and was, in many ways, a man ahead of his time. A workaholic who once declared, ‘I’d rather wear out than rust out’, FitzRoy increasingly struggled with depression.  The pressure of work and criticism took a severe toll on his health and, on 30 April 1865, FitzRoy took his own life. He was buried in unconsecrated ground within the front churchyard of All Saint’s Church, Upper Norwood. His entire fortune of £6,000 (equivalent to around £400,000 today) had been exhausted on public service. FitzRoy was the world’s first full-time weather forecaster. As a pioneering meteorologist and founding father of the Met Office, FitzRoy made accurate weather forecasting a reality. To this day, the Met Office is proud of this outstanding scientific legacy and strives to continue operating at the forefront of scientific discovery.





First half of April has been dry and warm

17 04 2015

Early statistics up to the 15th of April show that month so far has been generally settled and warm, with limited rainfall in most areas.

The mean temperature for the UK was 8.2C, which is 0.8C above the long-term (1981-2010) average for the whole month.

Daytime temperatures have risen to well above average in many areas, especially in the south, with the year’s highest temperature so far of 25.1C recorded at Frittenden in Kent on the afternoon of the 15th. This is the highest April temperature anywhere in the UK since 2011.

The UK as a whole has seen average maximum temperatures 1.4C above normal, though much closer to average in coastal parts of northwest England and western Scotland.

Map shows the UK mean temperature for 1-15 April compared to the whole month average.

Map shows the UK mean temperature for 1-15 April compared to the whole month average.

Rainfall has been well below normal so far in most areas. After 15 days of the month you’d expect about 50% of the full-month average to have fallen in a ‘normal’ April, but the UK has seen just 35% (25.2mm). However, there was some persistent and heavy rain across parts of northwest Scotland on 13th and 14th, and parts of western Scotland have had most of the whole-month average already.

It has also been rather a sunny month so far for most parts of the UK, with 63% of the full-month average already – again you would expect around 50% by mid-month.

The forecast for this weekend is for a good deal of dry and bright weather. However, it’s still far too early to judge how this April will finish overall, with half of the month still to add in to the statistics.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
1-15 Apr
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 12.9 1.4 92.8 63 25.2 35
England 14.0 1.6 98.4 63 14.1 24
Wales 13.5 1.9 92.0 60 20.1 22
Scotland 10.8 1.1 85.8 64 43.7 48
N Ireland 12.8 1.2 81.5 56 32.6 44

Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910. You can explore our climate data on our website. Clearly these are early month figures and the statistics at the end of the month will change somewhat.





More warm weather this week – but what’s in store for the summer?

13 04 2015

This week is set to see some unseasonably warm weather for parts of the UK – with temperatures expected to climb to the low to mid-20s Celsius in the south on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Warm air flowing up from the south west will combine with high pressure, bringing settled conditions and sunny spells for many.

Warmest days of the year so far

This week’s above average temperatures follow on from a similar spell last week, which saw temperatures top out at 21.9C at St James’s Park in London on Friday.

This was the ‘warmest day of the year so far’, but It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will top that – which is to be expected as we head through spring and edge closer to the start of summer.

Unfortunately, the weather we get in April doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about the kind of summer we can expect. We’re still in the midst of spring, so it’s far too early to say what the months of June, July and August may hold.

Summer ‘heatwave’ speculation

That hasn’t stopped speculation about heatwaves, the warmest summer ever and record temperatures in the media. Some stories cite our three month outlook for contingency planners as proof of the impending heatwave, but this is in no way an accurate reflection of what it shows.

The outlook shows probabilities attached to different scenarios for temperature and rainfall over the whole three-month period it covers. This is useful for those who use probabilities to plan ahead on longer-timescales, but not very useful for deciding where and when to go on your UK summer holiday, for example.

What does the longer outlook show?

Our current three month outlook does show that above average temperatures are more likely than below average temperatures for the April-June period. The outlook is essentially the scientific equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and, just like a horse race, the favourite doesn’t always win.

It’s also important to note that above average temperatures over a three-month period could come about in a variety of ways in terms of actual weather – we can still see warmer than average temperatures when it’s cloudy and wet, for example. Also, even in an above average three-months not all individual months would need to be above average.

This just reinforces the point that the contingency planners outlook doesn’t tell us what specific weather we are going to see at a specific location. For the best information on the weather ahead, people should use the Met Office’s 5-day weather forecast supplemented with our 30-day outlook.

By keeping up to date with the latest forecast, you’ll always have the most up-to-date and accurate view of the weather in store for the UK.





Powerful super-typhoon heads for Philippines

1 04 2015

There is currently a super typhoon in the western North Pacific called Maysak. This is a particularly strong storm for the time of year with winds in excess of 160 mph. The strongest storms in this region usually occur between August and October. Tropical storms, including typhoons, are reliant on sea surface temperatures for their energy, and as the northern hemisphere has just moved from winter to spring, this is the coldest time of year for sea temperatures. However, in the region where Typhoon Maysak formed just north of the equator, sea temperatures are almost always above 26°C, which is the critical value for tropical storm formation. Furthermore, the sea temperatures are unusually warm in this area by more than 2°C.

Super Typhoon Maysak is the fourth tropical storm of the season in the western North Pacific, the others being Mekkhala, Higos and Bavi. There has not been a year with four or more tropical storms in this region forming before the end of March since 1965. Three of the four storms have been typhoons – only Bavi remained below the 74mph threshold (the sustained wind speed required to become a typhoon). There have never been as many typhoons before the end of March in the era of reliable records (since World War II). Maysak was also the strongest typhoon to develop in March in this region since Mitag in 2002.

Typhoon Maysak as seen from the MTSAT satellite on 1 April 2015 Image courtesy of digital-typhoon.org

Typhoon Maysak as seen from the MTSAT satellite on 1 April 2015
Image courtesy of digital-typhoon.org

Maysak has now started to weaken as it moves west-northwest towards the Philippines. However, Maysak is still likely to be a typhoon when it makes landfall this weekend. There is still some uncertainty over the exact track of the storm, but the most probable path suggests the Philippines’ northern island, Luzon, is most at risk – including the capital Manila. Wind damage and flooding are likely, particularly in coastal areas.

Typhoon Maysak on 1 April 2015. Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

Typhoon Maysak on 1 April 2015.
Image courtesy of the US Naval Research Laboratory

The Eye of the Storm

Air sinks at the centre of a typhoon, resulting in the formation of an ‘eye’ which is sometimes free of cloud and mostly calm. However, on occasions small scale rotations can develop within the eye causing distinctive ‘mesovortices’ (small scale columns of rotating air) in the low level cloud pattern. These can be seen in this satellite loop of Typhoon Maysak created by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MAYSAK_H8VIS_064_31March_end0600_fast.gif

The Met Office works closely with counterparts at the Philippines weather service PAGASA, providing the latest information on computer model predictions of the likely track and intensity of Typhoon Maysak as it nears the country.

Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe, with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model, as well as the latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





March continues sunny theme for UK

31 03 2015

Following the sunniest winter in records dating back to 1929, March has continued the trend with above average sunshine hours according to early Met Office statistics.

Map showing sunshine hours between 1-29 March compared to the full-month long-term average.

Map showing sunshine hours between 1-29 March compared to the full-month long-term average.

Up to the 29th of the month, there had been 115.0 hours of sunshine which is slightly above the full-month long-term (1981-2010) average of 101.8 hours.

Northern Ireland has been particularly sunny compared to average, with 126.9 hours of sunshine so far this month – which is well ahead of its long-term March average of 97.7 hours.

It has also been a slightly drier than average month up to the 29th, with 80.4mm of rain for the UK so far making up about 85% of the long-term average for the whole month (95.1mm). We’d expect to have had about 94% of the full-month average by this stage of the month.

England has been particularly dry, with the 39.4mm notching up just 62% of the full month average (64.0mm).

Wales and Northern Ireland were also fairly dry (notching up 74% and 78% of their full month average respectively), whereas Scotland is slightly wetter than average – having seen 148.2mm of rain which is just over the full-month average.

When it comes to temperatures – the month has been spot-on average up to the 29th, with a mean temperature of 5.5C.

Looking closer at individual countries, England, Wales and Northern Ireland were all slightly colder than average (by no more than a few tenths of a degree), while Scotland again bucked the trend with slightly above average temperatures (by 0.3C).

Overall the month has been fairly average so far, with no records broken. The final figures are likely to change slightly once the final two days of the month are added.

You can explore Met Office statistics on our UK Climate pages.

UK statistics for 1-29 March:

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
1-29 March
Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 5.5 0.0 115.0 113 80.4 85
England 6.1 -0.1 122.0 113 39.4 62
Wales 5.4 -0.4 118.7 117 86.1 74
Scotland 4.4 0.3 100.2 108 148.2 105
N Ireland 5.6 -0.2 126.9 130 74.3 78







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