Hotter weather for the start of July

25 06 2015

The weather is showing signs of heating up next week for the start of the Wimbledon fortnight.

In contrast to June so far, which has seen temperatures often near or just below normal, next week could see a real change in the way it feels – with hot days and humid nights, especially across the south.

It looks like heat will start to build across Iberia later this weekend and spread northwards across France early next week as a tropical continental airmass begins to dominate the weather. Temperatures across Iberia and southern France could reach the low 40’s Celsius by midweek with northern France seeing temperatures into the mid to high 30s Celsius.

Data: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Data: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

The UK is likely to be near the boundary between this tropical continental airmass and a tropical maritime airmass over the Atlantic, but we do expect to see temperatures rise across the whole of the UK for the start of July.

Scotland could see highs in the low to mid 20’s (although it may be cloudy here at times), and highs across southern Britain are likely to reach the low 30’s Celsius with a small chance of values in the mid 30’s here.

It’s worth saying that there is some uncertainty about how much of the hot weather from the continent will reach us, and it may only last a couple of days before temperatures drop a little. As is traditional with hot weather in the UK in the summer it may end with thunderstorms.





Record May temperatures for Spain

14 05 2015

Update: On Thursday, records were broken once again across southeast Spain. Valencia equalled Lanzarote Airport’s 42.6C from the previous day. Other stations in the Valenciana region exceeded this value, with Xativa and Carcaixent reaching 42.7C and 42.9C respectively; however these are as yet unconfirmed so are not official. Either way, not only is this 42.6C a new Spanish record for May, but a European-wide May record.  

Meanwhile, the heat is spreading to other parts of Europe, with extreme warmth expected today along the north coast of Sicily and parts of mainland southern Italy.

A new record maximum temperature for Spain was set yesterday, with many local records also broken, and the heat continues today in the southeast.

Iberia Temps

The new record of 42.6C was recorded at Lanzarote Airport in the Canary Islands, beating the previous May record for Spain by a relatively large 2.5 degrees. It also beats the Lanzarote station’s own previous highest May temperature by a whopping 6 degrees.

The previous May record in Spain was 40.1C at Cordoba on the mainland, and Cordoba itself recorded a new May station record on Wednesday with 41.2C.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Further records could be broken today in parts of Andalucía, Mercia and Valenciana as air continues to feed in from North Africa. However, a cold front is pushing gradually southeastwards across Spain, bringing cooler air across much of the country by the end of the week.





Possible record heat in Spain, while heavy rain and snow affect the Alps

13 05 2015

Parts of Spain, Portugal and southern France are experiencing unusually high temperatures at the moment. On Tuesday, Seville recorded 38C, and today will be another very hot day for the time of year, with temperatures widely expected to reach the low to mid 30s Celsius.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

The hottest conditions will be across the Andalucía region of southern Spain. If temperatures reach or exceed 40C in Seville today this will be a new May record. Cooler conditions will gradually spread from the north tomorrow, although another very hot day is likely in southern Spain. Temperatures are then expected to return closer to average in all regions by Friday.

Meanwhile, southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and northern Italy are at risk of heavy rainfall over the coming days, with heavy snow possible on Friday across the Alps. Up to 150mm of rain could fall within 48 hours, possibly leading to flash flooding and landslides in this mountainous region of Europe, as well as increasing the avalanche risk due to fresh snowfall.

Whilst neither of these two weather events in Europe will affect the UK, we are expecting some heavy rain of our own on Thursday. The band of rain will move across southwest England during the early hours and edge slowly northeastwards through the day, but become almost stationary across parts of Wales, central-southern and southeast England. However, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain largely dry and fine.





More warm weather this week – but what’s in store for the summer?

13 04 2015

This week is set to see some unseasonably warm weather for parts of the UK – with temperatures expected to climb to the low to mid-20s Celsius in the south on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Warm air flowing up from the south west will combine with high pressure, bringing settled conditions and sunny spells for many.

Warmest days of the year so far

This week’s above average temperatures follow on from a similar spell last week, which saw temperatures top out at 21.9C at St James’s Park in London on Friday.

This was the ‘warmest day of the year so far’, but It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will top that – which is to be expected as we head through spring and edge closer to the start of summer.

Unfortunately, the weather we get in April doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about the kind of summer we can expect. We’re still in the midst of spring, so it’s far too early to say what the months of June, July and August may hold.

Summer ‘heatwave’ speculation

That hasn’t stopped speculation about heatwaves, the warmest summer ever and record temperatures in the media. Some stories cite our three month outlook for contingency planners as proof of the impending heatwave, but this is in no way an accurate reflection of what it shows.

The outlook shows probabilities attached to different scenarios for temperature and rainfall over the whole three-month period it covers. This is useful for those who use probabilities to plan ahead on longer-timescales, but not very useful for deciding where and when to go on your UK summer holiday, for example.

What does the longer outlook show?

Our current three month outlook does show that above average temperatures are more likely than below average temperatures for the April-June period. The outlook is essentially the scientific equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and, just like a horse race, the favourite doesn’t always win.

It’s also important to note that above average temperatures over a three-month period could come about in a variety of ways in terms of actual weather – we can still see warmer than average temperatures when it’s cloudy and wet, for example. Also, even in an above average three-months not all individual months would need to be above average.

This just reinforces the point that the contingency planners outlook doesn’t tell us what specific weather we are going to see at a specific location. For the best information on the weather ahead, people should use the Met Office’s 5-day weather forecast supplemented with our 30-day outlook.

By keeping up to date with the latest forecast, you’ll always have the most up-to-date and accurate view of the weather in store for the UK.





How will ex-Hurricane Cristobal affect the UK’s weather next week?

27 08 2014

The third tropical storm in the North Atlantic, Cristobal, has been making some headlines about its potential positive impact on us here in the UK – so what’s actually happening?

Cristobal is currently categorised as a hurricane and is currently between Bermuda and northeast Florida in the western Atlantic.

The storm is forecast to move north-east across the Atlantic over the coming days, changing to an ex-hurricane as it moves away from the warmer waters where it formed.

However, unlike ex-Hurricane Bertha which moved straight to the UK and brought strong winds and heavy rain to much of the British Isles, ex-Hurricane Cristobal is set on a very different track.

Instead it is forecast to move towards Iceland, staying well away from the UK as you can see from the forecast pressure chart below.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

Forecast pressure chart for 1pm on Sunday 31 August shows ex-Cristobal heading towards Iceland.

As Cristobal tracks to the north-west of the UK it could bring stronger winds across northwestern parts of Scotland for a time and there will also be some rain moving across the UK on Sunday into Monday.

It will have a longer lasting and more positive impact on our weather, however, as the track of the storm will result in an area of high pressure building further to the south and over the UK.

This high pressure will be maintained through next week as the jet stream moves to the north of the UK, bringing settled conditions across the country.

At this time of the year, high pressure generally brings dry and fine weather with some spells of sunshine, and that’s what we expect to see from around Tuesday next week.

With high pressure, daytime temperatures could reach the low to mid 20’s Celsius in places. This warmth will be especially noticeable following the cool conditions of late.

This spell of warm weather, however, doesn’t fit the definition of an Indian Summer – which you can read about on our website.





July makes eight warm months in a row

1 08 2014

This July was the eighth month in a row which has seen warmer than average temperatures for the UK. It was both sunnier and warmer than average, but not as much as July last year, according to provisional full-month statistics from the Met Office.

Figures for the whole month show that the UK mean temperature was 16.3C, which is 1.2C above the long term (1981-2010) average.

This ranks it as the 8th warmest July in our national records, joint with 1933. It’s worth noting that last July was warmer (17.0C, ranked 3rd), and this year is well short of the record warmest July of 2006 (17.8C).

Sunshine hours for the UK totalled 228.7 hours, which makes this the 6th sunniest July in records from 1929 – but, again, it’s not as sunny as last year’s July (248.7 hours, ranked 3rd), and is well off the record set in 1955 of 256.0 hours.

Rainfall was also below average, with this month’s UK total of 64.1 mm making 82% of the ‘normal’ amount we’d expect for the month. It was the driest July since 2006, marginally drier than last July, but there are many drier Julys in the records.

The rainfall patterns have been variable, with some parts of the country, such as the South West of England and west Wales, being much drier than average while others, such as parts of the South East, being much wetter.

Much of the rain has been from intense thundery downpours. On 20th July, Norwich Airport recorded 45.8mm in one hour, three-quarters of the ‘normal’ amount for the whole month.

Here are some other top weather facts from this July:

  • Highest temperature: 32.3C at Gravesend, Kent on the 18th
  • Lowest temperature: 1.2C at Braemar, Aberdeenshire on the 6th
  • Wettest day (midnight to midnight): 46mm at Northolt, Greater London on the 28th
  • Sunniest day: 16.1 hours at Glasgow, on the 9th
  • Strongest gust: 58mph at Warcop, Cumbria on the 18th

You can explore figures and statistics about the UK climate, including our national records dating back to 1910, on our climate pages.

The table below shows the provisional full month figures for July:

  Temperature (C) Sunshine (hours) Rainfall (mm)
July Provisional Actual Diff from avg Actual % of avg Actual % of avg
UK 16.3 1.2 228.7 133 64.1 82
England 17.6 1.3 251.1 130 53.1 85
Wales 16.2 1.0 238.6 133 53.7 58
Scotland 14.4 1.2 200.0 142 85.4 86
N Ireland 15.7 1.1 166.0 118 61.1 75




July 2014 in top ten warmest and sunniest

30 07 2014

This July is set to finish amongst the top ten warmest and sunniest in records dating back to 1910, according to early Met Office statistics.

Figures from the 1st to the 28th of the month show temperatures are slightly higher than normal, with a UK mean of 16.3C which is 1.2C above the 1981-2010 average.

If the month were to finish like that, it would be the joint 8th warmest in the record dating back to 1910 – but is well short of the record-breaking 17.8C set in 2006.

UK map showing hours of sunshine from 1-28 July 2014 compared to the full-month 1981-2010 average.

UK map showing hours of sunshine from 1-28 July 2014 compared to the full-month 1981-2010 average.

Sunshine hours for the UK are well above average, with 210 hours so far – which is 122% of the average we’d expect for the whole month. This means it is currently ranked as the joint 10th sunniest July in the record, and it’s likely to climb higher once the final few days of the month are included.

However, this July is unlikely to break the record of 256 hours of sunshine set in 1955.

Rainfall has been below average for the UK – but not by a record-breaking amount. The UK has seen about 59mm so far, which is 76% of the full month average – you’d normally expect about 90% at this stage.

That means this month currently ranks as the 29th driest July on record – and it’s likely to move closer to the mid-table due to any rain in the final few days of the month.

South west England and southern parts of Wales have seen the least rain compared to usual, with 42.6mm for the region making up just 53% of the full-month average.

  Mean temperature Sunshine
Rainfall
1-28 July Actual (celsius) Diff from avg Actual (hrs) % of avg Actual (mm) % of avg
UK 16.3 1.2 210 122 59 76
England 17.6 1.3 228.1 118 51.7 83
Wales 16.2 1 219.4 123 47.9 52
Scotland 14.4 1.2 187.3 133 75.1 75
N Ireland 15.7 1.1 152.5 109 53.4 66




Guest blog: ‘Risk of summer drought at normal levels’

17 06 2014

There have been some reports in the press that the Met Office has warned dry weather this June could bring a return of drought conditions to the UK – this is not the case. Here Victoria Williams, Water Resources Advisor at the Environment Agency, explains what the real risks are at the moment:

Every week we measure water resources in England to assess how dry the soils are and how much rain they can soak up, the amount of water flowing in rivers, stored below ground in aquifers and above ground in reservoirs, and the outlook for the coming months.

As we move into summer the overall water resources situation across England is looking generally healthy. This is not surprising given England has experienced the wettest six month period (Dec-May) on record.

Regionally it has also been a record breaker with the wettest six months experienced in southeast and southwest England and the second wettest in central and northwest England.

All our rivers have responded to the rainfall and are currently within normal ranges.  Groundwater levels throughout England are within normal ranges and are now starting to recede as expected for the time of year.

We also look ahead by modelling how rivers and groundwaters may respond to different future rainfall patterns over the summer. The results shows a broadly positive picture even if rainfall is below average and point to the risk of drought this summer being no greater than average.

However it is still as important as ever to use water wisely. If the weather does turn hot and dry there can be localised impacts on rivers, the environment and for farming. If this happens we work with abstractors to reduce the effects where possible and water companies will keep their customers informed if needed.

For more information see the Environment Agency water situation reports.





Sorry, no heatwave in sight

8 08 2013

An article on the front page of today’s Daily Express suggests that there is a new UK heat wave in the offing for next week and temperatures could soar into the 90s °F (32-37 °C).

This is not a forecast from the Met Office and, sadly for those who enjoy the heat, there’s no sign that we will see a return to the prolonged hot and sunny weather we saw in July.

In the Express, the article talks about high temperatures on the continent – up to 104 °F (40 °C). This may be the case in parts of continental Europe, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see temperatures like that in the UK or even a heat wave of any description. For that continental air to impact us, you’d need a very specific weather pattern and – looking at several of the world’s leading weather prediction models – there is no sign of that at the moment.

However, we do expect to see periods of decent, sunny weather over the next ten days or so (including today and tomorrow for some parts of the country). These will be mixed in with periods of more unsettled, wetter and windier weather. In fact, it looks like fairly typical mixed weather for the UK at this time of year.

In terms of temperatures, currently it looks like our highs will continue to be in the mid 20s °C – with the warmest weather being in south eastern parts of the country. Elsewhere temperatures are likely to peak in the high teens to low 20s °C.

You can see the outlook to the end of August and in to September on our website.





July finishes in top three sunniest and warmest

2 08 2013

Met Office figures show that, with a mean temperature of 17 °C, July 2013 was the third warmest in the national record going back to 1910, behind 2006 (17.8 °C) and 1983 (17.3 °C).

This July’s heatwave was more notable for its duration than its intensity, although it is not particularly unusual in a historical context. The last year in which 30 °C was not recorded at any station was in 1993. However, this July stands out in contrast to the run of unsettled summers from 2007 to 2012, and was the most significant UK heatwave since July 2006.

Through the month we saw high pressure sitting over the UK bringing a prolonged period of high temperatures between Saturday 6 July and Thursday 24 July, when a maximum of 28 °C was recorded at one or more locations on each of those 19 days.

The last time the UK saw such a long period of hot weather was August 1997 which also had a 19- day run of high temperatures. The highest temperature for July 2013 was recorded jointly at Heathrow and Northolt on 22 July (33.5 °C). (Although this high temperature has already been surpassed in August, with 34.1 °C recorded at Heathrow on 1 August.

July 2006 still stands as the hottest month on record in the UK with a mean temperature of 17.8 °C and also saw the record July temperature of 36.5 °C at Wisley (19 July 2006).

The heatwave broke on 22 July with thunder and some very heavy downpours. The wettest day in July was in Cumbria, when 79.8mm of rain fell at Carlisle on 28 July (97.4 mm on a 48 hour rainfall total between 0900 GMT 27 July to GMT 29 July 2013).

Looking at the individual countries, the hottest day in Scotland was on 20 July (30.5 °C) at Glenlee, with Castlederg in Northern Ireland and Porthmadog in Wales recording their highest temperatures on 19 July (30.1 °C and 31.4 °C respectively). England’s hottest day was also the aforementioned UK’s hottest day (33.5 °C on 22 July Heathrow and Northolt).

July’s UK rainfall total was 64mm, with Scotland receiving near normal levels at 83.1 mm and the whole of England drier than average at 52.3 mm (but with Northern England registering above average rainfall with 75.8 mm and Southern England below average at 39.8 mm). Wales (58.0 mm) and Northern Ireland (78.2 mm) were slightly drier than average.

Statistics:

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
July Actual Diff from Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 17.0 1.9 250.7 145 64.1 82
England 18.1 1.8 274.1 142 52.3 83
Wales 17.2 2.0 288.9 161 58.0 63
Scotland 15.2 1.9 205.8 146 83.1 84
N Ireland 17.0 2.4 227.3 162 78.2 96







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