A wet getaway

24 07 2015

As many of us plan to head off on holiday, heavy rain and strengthening winds cross southern England today (Friday), persisting overnight in the east, before clearing on Saturday morning.

A Yellow warning has been issued for southeast England and East Anglia, valid from Friday afternoon to 11am Saturday because of the potential impacts the heavy rain and wind could have.

 

Weather warning 24.07.15

As an area of low pressure is crossing northeastwards across the UK today (Friday), close to southern England, it deepens into quite an intense feature for this time of year and is expected to bring disruptive rain and wind, particularly within the warning area.

More than 30 mm of rain is expected quite widely, but there is a chance some isolated locations could well see more than 70 mm of rain. Wind gusts are also expected to be strong across the warning area, with northerly winds gusting to 45 mph inland and around 55 mph along coasts. This combination of factors could bring the risk of disruption to outdoor activities and heavy holiday traffic.
Highways England has launched a website especially for drivers heading to the South West of England to help plan their journey.





One year on – A look back to last winter

17 02 2015

This weekend marked the one-year anniversary of the Valentine’s Day storm, which also marked the end of a particularly stormy three-month period. A new review article – ‘From months to minutes – exploring the value of high-resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/2014’ – written by 16 Met Office co-authors reviews the accuracy of our forecasting and warning of severe weather during winter 2013-14, and assesses its performance.

The paper concludes that the “prolonged period of high impact weather experienced in the United Kingdom during the winter of 2013/14 was very well forecast by the operational tools available across space and time scales.”

Here Huw Lewis, the paper’s lead author, and Derrick Ryall, Head of the Public Weather Service, look at the extreme weather last year and the role of the Met Office in communicating severe weather through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Winter 2013/2014 in the United Kingdom was remarkable. The country was battered by at least 12 major winter storms over a three month period and was officially assessed as the stormiest period that the United Kingdom has experienced for at least 20 years.

The series of storms resulted in the wettest winter in almost 250 years (according to the England and Wales precipitation series from 1766), significantly wetter than the previous wettest winter in 1914/1915.

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

The extreme weather caused widespread flooding throughout Southern England and coastal damage – most notably in the South West and Norfolk coasts. The impact of the severe winter storms on individuals, businesses and the government were substantial, including several fatalities, widespread power cuts and damaged infrastructure.

Recent advances in forecasting, technology and the scientific developments in meteorology have been considerable. These developments and improvements in accuracy mean that a four-day weather forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was just thirty years ago. During the course of last winter, the Met Office was able to use these forecasts to warn of any severe weather well in advance. In the case of the St Jude’s Day storm at the end of October 2013 warnings went out to the Government and the public five days before the storm even existed.

rainfall

As the accuracy of weather forecasts has evolved, so has the communication of the potential impacts of severe weather. The National Severe Weather Warning Service enables more ‘weather decisions’ which in turn help to minimise the consequences of severe weather. The Met Office was at the heart of the government response to the storms, providing advice on weather impacts through the National Severe Weather Warning Service and Civil Contingency Advisors. The Met Office also worked very closely with both the national and regional media, who in turn played a key role in ensuring that the public were fully informed about the potential impacts of any up-coming weather.

In addition to the Public Weather Service, commercial partners and customers were also provided with detailed updates throughout the period in order for them to plan effectively for logistical issues. Together, these advanced warnings helped authorities, businesses and individuals to be better prepared to take mitigating actions.

Driving further improvements in accuracy and therefore reducing the lead time and increasing the detail of severe weather warnings is one of the Met Office’s key priorities . The ultimate aim is to improve the potential for users to plan preventative measures for severe weather events much further ahead. Underpinning all of these developments is a continuing programme of scientific research and access to enhanced supercomputing over the next few years.





Strongest winds overnight 14 – 15 January 2015

15 01 2015

As expected, a powerful low pressure system affected the UK yesterday evening and overnight bringing gales and heavy rain to many areas.

The low pressure system will continue to affect the UK today, bringing sunny spells and blustery, heavy showers with the chance of thunderstorms and snow over high ground. Severe gales are again expected around western and northwestern coasts, with the strongest winds likely over Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland, extending to northern Scotland later. You can see detail on this on our forecast and warnings pages.

Below are some of the strongest gust speeds recorded at Met Office observing sites between 7pm yesterday and 7am today.

Strongest gusts 7 pm 14 January 2015 – 7 am 15 January 2015
Date / time Site Max Gusts (mph)
15/01/2015 00:00 CAPEL CURIG GWYNEDD 96
15/01/2015 03:00 WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 93
15/01/2015 00:00 ABERDARON GWYNEDD 83
14/01/2015 23:00 MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 81
15/01/2015 02:00 BERRY HEAD DEVON 77
15/01/2015 02:00 AVONMOUTH AVON 76
15/01/2015 03:00 ISLE OF PORTLAND DORSET 75
14/01/2015 23:00 CULDROSE CORNWALL 73
15/01/2015 04:00 TIREE ARGYLL 73
15/01/2015 01:00 LOFTUS CLEVELAND 70
15/01/2015 01:00 PLYMOUTH, MOUNTBATTEN DEVON 70
14/01/2015 23:00 SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT ISLES OF SCILLY 70
15/01/2015 04:00 SOLENT HAMPSHIRE 69
15/01/2015 01:00 LAKE VYRNWY POWYS 69
14/01/2015 23:00 NORTH WYKE DEVON 68
14/01/2015 23:00 SENNYBRIDGE POWYS 68
15/01/2015 06:00 ISLAY: PORT ELLEN ARGYLL 68
15/01/2015 00:00 PEMBREY SANDS DYFED 68
14/01/2015 21:00 DRUMALBIN LANARKSHIRE 67
15/01/2015 07:00 EDINBURGH, BLACKFORD HILL MIDLOTHIAN 67

Below are some of the highest rainfall totals recorded at Met Office observing sites between 7pm yesterday and 7am today.

Highest rainfall 7pm 14 January to 7am 15 January 2015
Site Rain (mm)
ACHNAGART ROSS & CROMARTY 40.8
TYNDRUM PERTHSHIRE 39.0
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK GWENT 35.8
KESWICK CUMBRIA 35.0
THREAVE KIRKCUDBRIGHTSHIRE 31.8
LIBANUS POWYS 31.8
SHAP CUMBRIA 31.6
ESKDALEMUIR DUMFRIESSHIRE 28.2
SKYE: LUSA WESTERN ISLES 27.8
USK MONMOUTHSHIRE 27.4
OKEHAMPTON, EAST OKEMENT FARM DEVON 27.1
STRATHALLAN AIRFIELD PERTHSHIRE 25.6
GOUDHURST KENT 25.4
BLENCATHRA CUMBRIA 25.2
TULLOCH BRIDGE INVERNESS-SHIRE 24.2
WHITECHURCH DYFED 24.0
NORTH WYKE DEVON 23.6
CAPEL CURIG GWYNEDD 23.4
MIDDLE WALLOP HAMPSHIRE 23.4
CAMBORNE CORNWALL 23.0

You can share the weather you have experienced through the ‘Weather Impacts’ section of WOW

The stormy weather we have seen over the last couple of weeks is now coming to an end and conditions over the weekend and into next week look calmer but colder with frosts at night and wintry mix of showers.





Sunday’s rain and wind data

10 08 2014

Heavy rain has continued to move north and east across the UK today. Here is a selection of the highest rainfall totals and strongest wind gusts from Met Office stations around the UK :

6hr UK RAINFALL   10 AUG 10am to 4pm
SITE NAME AREA Rainfall (MM)
LOGAN BOTANIC GARDEN WIGTOWNSHIRE 57.4
NORMANBY HALL HUMBERSIDE 38.4
HULL, EAST PARK HUMBERSIDE 30.0
LECONFIELD HUMBERSIDE 29.4
GRINGLEY-ON-THE-HILL NOTTINGHAMSHIRE 29.2
SCARBOROUGH NORTH YORKSHIRE 28.2
SUTTON BONINGTON NOTTINGHAMSHIRE 28.0
CONINGSBY LINCOLNSHIRE 25.6
SCAMPTON LINCOLNSHIRE 25.2
BRIDLINGTON MRSC HUMBERSIDE 24.6
HIGH BEACH ESSEX 24.4
HIGH MOWTHORPE NORTH YORKSHIRE 23.0
FYLINGDALES NORTH YORKSHIRE 22.4
BRAMHAM WEST YORKSHIRE 19.8
PEMBREY SANDS DYFED 19.6
WEST FREUGH WIGTOWNSHIRE 19.6
NORWICH AIRPORT NORFOLK 18.6
DISHFORTH AIRFIELD NORTH YORKSHIRE 18.4
KATESBRIDGE DOWN 18.2
HAMPSTEAD GREATER LONDON 18.2

 

DATE / TIME SITE NAME AREA MAX GUST (MPH)
10/08/2014 midday WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 64
10/08/2014 4pm CAPEL CURIG GWYNEDD 56
10/08/2014 1pm ISLE OF PORTLAND DORSET 55
10/08/2014 1pm BERRY HEAD DEVON 54
10/08/2014 2pm WIGHT: ST CATHERINES POINT ISLE OF WIGHT 54
10/08/2014 3pm BRIDLINGTON MRSC HUMBERSIDE 53
10/08/2014 3am BALTASOUND SHETLAND 52
10/08/2014 midday DONNA NOOK LINCOLNSHIRE 52
10/08/2014 2pm LANGDON BAY KENT 52
10/08/2014 8am SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT ISLES OF SCILLY 51
10/08/2014 3pm HOLBEACH LINCOLNSHIRE 49
10/08/2014 9am CULDROSE CORNWALL 48
10/08/2014 2am SELLA NESS SHETLAND 48
10/08/2014 2pm SOLENT HAMPSHIRE 47
10/08/2014 3pm SHOREHAM AIRPORT WEST SUSSEX 46
10/08/2014 2pm ODIHAM HAMPSHIRE 46
10/08/2014 4pm MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 46
10/08/2014 4pm CROSBY MERSEYSIDE 45
10/08/2014 midday NORTH WYKE DEVON 45
10/08/2014 2pm HURN DORSET 45

 

 





Latest wind and rain data as ex-hurricane Bertha crosses the UK

10 08 2014

As forecast ex-hurricane Bertha is crossing the UK today (10 August 2014) bringing heavy and strong, gusty winds.

ex-hurricane Bertha crosses the UK on 10 August 2014

ex-hurricane Bertha crosses the UK on 10 August 2014

 

The heaviest rainfall overnight was recorded at Balatasound in Shetland where 48.8mm of rain was recorded as a previous low pressure system moved away from the UK, while Bute Park in Cardiff saw 40.6mm as the remnants of ex-hurricane Bertha move in from the southwest.

The highest hourly total was 18.4mm at Wisley in Surrey between 9 and 10am this morning and Coventry in the West Midlands seeing 18.2mm in the same time.

The table below shows a selection of the rainfall recorded at Met Office observing sites across the UK between 10pm on Saturday 9 August and 10am on Sunday 10 August 2014.

12hr UK RAINFALL 10pm 9 Aug to 10am 10 Aug 2014
SITE NAME AREA Rainfall (MM)
BALTASOUND SHETLAND 48.8
CARDIFF, BUTE PARK SOUTH GLAMORGAN 40.6
MILFORD HAVEN CONSERVANCY BOARD DYFED 37.0
SCOLTON COUNTRY PARK DYFED 35.4
ST ATHAN SOUTH GLAMORGAN 34.4
PERSHORE COLLEGE HEREFORD & WORCESTER 28.2
USK NO 2 MONMOUTHSHIRE 27.6
ASTWOOD BANK HEREFORD & WORCESTER 26.0
PERSHORE HEREFORD & WORCESTER 23.6
MURLOUGH DOWN 23.2
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK GWENT 22.8
KILLOWEN DOWN 22.4
WHITECHURCH DYFED 22.2
CHIVENOR DEVON 22.0
COVENTRY, COUNDON WEST MIDLANDS 21.8
WISLEY SURREY 21.2

The winds have picked up as well with a gust of 53mph being recorded at Berry Head, Devon betwen 5am and 6am this morning. The table below shows the wind speeds recorded between 1am and 10am today.

UK MAX GUST SPEED 10 AUG 1am to 10am
DATE / TIME SITE NAME AREA MAX GUST (MPH)
10/08/2014 0600 BERRY HEAD DEVON 53
10/08/2014 0300 BALTASOUND SHETLAND 52
10/08/2014 0800 SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT ISLES OF SCILLY 51
10/08/2014 0900 CULDROSE CORNWALL 48
10/08/2014 0200 SELLA NESS SHETLAND 48
10/08/2014 1000 WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 46
10/08/2014 0800 MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 44
10/08/2014 0300 LERWICK SHETLAND 44
10/08/2014 0900 CAMBORNE CORNWALL 43
10/08/2014 0900 SOLENT HAMPSHIRE 41

The rain will continue to move north across the UK during the rest of today and the winds will stay strong and gusty and we encourage everyone to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and national severe weather warnings.





12 February 2014 – Storm Statistics

13 02 2014

The UK saw severe weather conditions throughout the course of Wednesday 12 February 2014 and as forecast the strongest winds hit the Welsh and Northwestern coast. Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfall totals recorded at Met Office observing sites on Thursday 12 February 2014.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
ABERDARON GWYNEDD 95 108
MUMBLES HEAD WEST GLAMORGAN 43 96
WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY ISLE OF WIGHT 80 96
LAKE VYRNWY POWYS 360 96
CAPEL CURIG NO 3 GWYNEDD 216 93
HIGH BRADFIELD SOUTH YORKSHIRE 395 92
PEMBREY SANDS DYFED 3 89
ABERPORTH DYFED 133 87
LOFTUS CLEVELAND 158 85
BERRY HEAD DEVON 58 85

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
SHAP CUMBRIA 46
BAINBRIDGE NORTH YORKSHIRE 41
BALLYPATRICK FOREST ANTRIM 39
CAPEL CURIG NO 3 GWYNEDD 37.4
BANAGHER, CAUGH HILL LONDONDERRY 35.8
BALA GWYNEDD 32.8
ALTNAHINCH FILTERS ANTRIM 32.4
KESWICK CUMBRIA 29.6
PATELEY BRIDGE, RAVENS NEST NORTH YORKSHIRE 27.4
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK GWENT 26.8

The unsettled weather will continue over the next 48 hours with a system bringing heavy rain on Friday 14 February, however the latter part of the weekend should bring drier and brighter weather for many. Everyone is advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather.





Wind and rainfall data 29 to 30 December 2013

30 12 2013

As forecast gales and heavy rain are again affecting the UK. Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfal totals recorded at Met Office observing sites from 6pm 29 December and 8am 30 December.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
CAPEL CURIG     GWYNEDD          216 77
BERRY HEAD                      DEVON            58 75
SCILLY: ST MARYS AIRPORT        ISLES OF SCILLY  31 71
PLYMOUTH, MOUNTBATTEN           DEVON            50 71
WIGHT: NEEDLES OLD BATTERY      ISLE OF WIGHT    80 70
CULDROSE                        CORNWALL         76 66
MILFORD HAVEN DYFED            44 61
NORTH WYKE                      DEVON            177 61
EDINBURGH, BLACKFORD HILL       MIDLOTHIAN       134 60
CARDINHAM, BODMIN               CORNWALL         200 59

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
MURLOUGH                        DOWN               54.4
THREAVE                         KIRKCUDBRIGHTSHIRE 52.2
WHITECHURCH                     DYFED              47.4
ESKDALEMUIR                     DUMFRIESSHIRE      42.4
KESWICK                         CUMBRIA            41.8
DUNDRENNAN                      KIRKCUDBRIGHTSHIRE 41.4
GLASGOW, BISHOPTON              RENFREWSHIRE       40.4
TREDEGAR, BRYN BACH PARK  GWENT              37.2
ST BEES HEAD        CUMBRIA            36.4
BLENCATHRA                      CUMBRIA            35

The unsettled weather will continue through the rest of the week and everyone is advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather.





Wind and rainfall data 27 December 2013

27 12 2013

As forecast, a deep area of low pressure developed over the Atlantic Ocean in the early hours of Friday morning bringing with it a further spell of wet and very windy weather across the UK as it tracked northeastwards, crossing northwest Scotland.

Below you can see the highest gusts of wind and rainfall totals recorded at Met Office observing sites from midnight to 2.30pm on 27 December.

Maximum gust speeds:

Site Area Elevation (m) Max gust speed (mph)
Aberdaron Gwynedd 95 102
Capel Curig Gwynedd 216 87
Mumbles Head West Glamorgan 43 85
St Bees Head Cumbria 124 85
Inverbervie Kincardineshire 134 81
Valley Gwynedd 10 81
Lake Vyrnwy Powys 360 78
Mona Anglesey 60 78
Needles Old Battery Isle of Wight 80 78
Dundrennan Kirkcudbrightshire 113 77
Pembry Sands Dyfed 3 76

Rainfall totals:

Site Area Rainfall (mm)
Tulloch Bridge Inverness-shire 38
Tyndrum Perthshire 37.8
Charterhouse Roxburghshire 37.8
Kiedler Castle Northumberland 33.2
Achnagart Ross and Cromarty 32.8
Redesdale Camp Northumberland 28.6
Cluanie Inn Ross and Cromarty 26.2
Eskdalemuir Dumfriesshire 24.2
Dalwhinnie Inverness-shire 24.2
Newton Rigg Cumbria 22
Banagher, Caugh Hill Londonderry 19.4

Winds will slowly ease from tonight and we are expecting a brighter and less windy interlude over the course of Saturday and for most of Sunday with overnight frosts and sunny spells and a wintry mix of showers.

Another active atlantic frontal system is expected to swing eastwards across the country on Sunday night and Monday morning. A combination of strobng winds and moist air has the   potential to give locally significant amounts of rain which could cause the risk of further flooding.  The wind and rain are expected to clear eastward on Monday morning.

During this period of unsettled weather, people are advised to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and National Severe Weather Warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the weather in store and make the most of the festive season. We would also encourage you to stay up to date with the latest news on flooding by checking the Environment Agency’s website for the latest flood alerts and warnings.

 





Our change in the weather and how the jet stream is driving it

13 12 2013

After a quiet spell of weather courtesy of a slow moving area of high pressure, we are now entering an unsettled period as a series of Atlantic depressions are expected to pass close to the northwest of Britain during the next week.

High pressure has now moved away and is settled over Europe and a powerful jet stream is developing over the Atlantic which will be the main driving force behind this spell of unsettled weather.

What is the jet stream?

The jet stream is a band of fast moving westerly winds high up in the atmosphere which circle around the pole in the northern hemisphere. It can feature winds of up to 200 knots (230 mph) or more, and these winds tend to guide wet and windy weather systems which come in off the Atlantic.

The jet moves around a fair bit and its position can have a big impact on weather here in the UK depending on where it is.

If the jet is over the UK or just to the south, we tend to get a lot of wet and windy conditions as it brings weather systems straight to us. If the jet is to the north of us, it guides that changeable weather away to the north to leave the UK with more settled conditions.

What’s the jet stream doing now?

Unsurprisingly given the outlook for the next week, with a succession of Atlantic depressions passing by to the northwest of Scotland, the jet is positioned to the northwest of the UK too.

As you can see from the picture below, the jet currently swoops east from Canada – swinging northeast over the Atlantic towards the UK.

Forecast position of jet stream at midday Saturday 14 December 2013

Forecast position of jet stream at midday Saturday 14 December 2013

Closer to the ground very cold air is also streaming south from Canada and meeting warm air moving north from the Caribbean. It is where these two air masses meet under the jet stream that powerful Atlantic depressions form and are blown across the ocean towards our shores.

It is these depressions that bring a significant risk of severe gales and heavy rain affecting at least the northwest of the UK at times.

What’s the weather outlook?

Currently, Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for wind across some northwestern and northern areas for the weekend. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely with a risk of gusts to 80 mph or more across exposed parts of northwest Scotland.

However, at this stage there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of the strongest winds and these warnings will be updated as the weather develops over the weekend.

Looking ahead, while we expect further depressions to develop it is not possible to say exactly how vigorous they may be or pinpoint where they will be in a week’s time. This means it is too early to say which areas will experience the strongest winds and heaviest rain, however there are indications that  areas further to the south of the UK may be affected at times.

You can stay up to date with what to expect with our detailed forecasts out to 5-days and our weather warnings, as well as a general view of what we expect out to 30 days and find out what to do in severe weather

You can find out more about the jet stream in our YouTube video.

 





Cold snap expected

3 12 2013

The UK is going to see a very short, sharp, cold snap.  From Wednesday night (4th Dec) into Thursday morning (5th Dec) Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland will see some strong winds, while Scotland will see some wintry showers and snow.  However temperatures will return to normal as we head through the weekend, and be more in line with what should be expected for December.

A rapidly deepening Atlantic depression is expected to move in an easterly direction to the north of Scotland bringing westerly gales, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph extending southwards across northern and some central parts of the UK on Wednesday night and Thursday.  Northern Scotland could see gusts of 80mph, and potentially 90mph for a time.

Because of this the Met Office has issued a Yellow Severe Weather Warning for strong winds. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel, especially across Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and Northern England.

The winds are expected to veer northerly and bring the colder arctic air southwards across northern areas before easing into Friday. The winds could exacerbate high tides and may increase the risk of coastal flooding in the Northern and Western Isles and along the East Coast of England.

A Yellow warning for snow is also in place. It runs from 6am Thursday to 12 noon on Friday, covering the northern half of Scotland, snow showers are expected to be most frequent across the Northern Isles, the North Highlands and northern Aberdeenshire.  Low laying areas could see 2 – 5cms of snow and higher altitudes 10 – 20cms. In addition the strong winds could lead to some drifting of snow and possibly blizzard conditions on higher ground.  Icy conditions may also develop on some roads across Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

This winter storm is not expected to be as powerful as those in January 2012 and December 2011

This is expected to be a short-lived cold snap, with temperatures quickly recovering to near normal over the weekend.

Our video explains what to do during a Yellow warning for wind. You can also download a weather warnings widget for your website.








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