Storm Henry forecast to bring severe gales in places on Monday

30 01 2016

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure pushing quickly across the Atlantic and expected to run close to the north of Scotland through Monday and into Tuesday has been named as Storm Henry. Keep up to date with the latest for your area using our forecast pages.

Forecast chart for Monday 1 February 2016

Forecast chart for Monday 1 February 2016

The Met Office issued an Amber National Severe Weather Warning for Storm Henry on Saturday morning. The Amber warning is valid from 3pm on Monday afternoon until 3am on Tuesday morning. Storm Henry closely follows Storm Gertrude, which tracked away from Shetland on Friday night.

The weather is expected to remain unsettled over the coming days with the prospect of further deep Atlantic depressions bringing spells of wind, rain and snow at times. You can stay up to date with the latest forecast for your area using our UK forecast pages and Severe weather warnings. You can also view our latest forecast Videos

During Saturday it will remain very windy in the north of the UK with severe gales across Scotland. These strong winds will be combined with frequent sleet or snow showers, leading to some drifting and blizzard conditions, especially over high ground, but even at low levels for a time. Severe weather warnings for wind and snow have been issued for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and northern England to the Midlands.

For Saturday night snow showers will remain in the north and west and there will be some icy patches.

During Sunday milder, cloudier and wetter conditions will spread slowly northeastwards across the UK, but only slowly with northern, eastern and some central regions staying cold for much of the day and these wetter conditions preceded by some transient snow over higher ground in northern, western and central Britain..

On Monday the vigorous low pressure system – named as Storm Henry –will be approaching the UK from the Atlantic. Currently, this system is expected to pass just to the north of Scotland, bringing very strong west or southwesterly winds across much of the UK. Gales or severe gales with heavy rain are expected across northwestern parts. These winds could bring disruption to transport as well as power supplies.

Dan Suri, Chief Operational Meteorologist said: “With several periods of severe weather forecast to affect the UK over the coming days, it’s a good idea to keep a close eye on the forecast and the National Severe Weather Warnings as the details of what areas are to be affected and when, are likely to change. Our forecast pages, Facebook and Twitter sites and our Weather App can all help you keep up to date with the weather so that you can plan ahead and be prepared.”





Record breaking December rainfall

28 12 2015

This is has already been a record breaking month for rainfall in some parts of the UK, with exceptional amounts of rain falling onto already saturated ground.

The very wet Boxing Day in parts of north Wales and northwest England was well forecast five days in advance with Amber, be prepared, warnings in force from as early as last Wednesday.

In the event the highest rainfall amounts were around 100mm with peaks of 130mm in Lancashire and in excess of 200mm in Snowdonia and caused high impacts across parts of north Wales and northern England.

Map showing two day rainfall totals for Christmas Day and Boxing Day

Map showing two day rainfall totals for Christmas Day and Boxing Day

Here is a selection of the highest two day rainfall totals from Met Office observing sites for Christmas Day and Boxing Day:

48hr UK RAINFALL TOTALS 9am 25 DEC – 9am 27 DEC 2015
SITE AREA RAINFALL TOTAL (MM)
CAPEL CURIG GWYNEDD 210.6
STONYHURST LANCASHIRE 100
PATELEY BRIDGE, RAVENS NEST NORTH YORKSHIRE 97
BINGLEY WEST YORKSHIRE 93.6
BAINBRIDGE NORTH YORKSHIRE 89.8
BALA GWYNEDD 89.4
SHAP CUMBRIA 86.4
SPADEADAM CUMBRIA 79.4
PRESTON, MOOR PARK LANCASHIRE 73.2
MYERSCOUGH LANCASHIRE 72.4
BRADFORD WEST YORKSHIRE 69.4
ROCHDALE GREATER MANCHESTER 68.2
MORECAMBE LANCASHIRE 65.8
MONA ISLE OF ANGLESEY 63.6
KIELDER CASTLE NORTHUMBERLAND 61.2
DISHFORTH AIRFIELD NORTH YORKSHIRE 60.8

This wet spell has added to the heavy rainfall through the rest of the month to make December 2015 already the wettest on record in parts of the UK.

Here is a small selection of new December records from Met Office observing stations around the UK 9am 1 – 9am 28 December 2015:

Site Total (mm) 81-10 avg (mm) Previous record
Shap (Cumbria) 773.2 215.6 504.4mm in 2006
Keswick (Cumbria) 517.6 173 376.4mm in 2013
Warcop Range (Cumbria) 281.6 94.1 218.4mm in 2006
Stonyhurst (Lancashire) 331.4 141.6 319.3mm in 1951
Morecambe (Lancashire) 281.4 109.2 272mm in 1909
Bainbridge (North Yorkshire) 496.2 156.5 327.2mm in 2006
Bingley

(West Yorkshire)

241.4 114.3 247.2mm in 2006
Eskdalemuir (Dumfries and Galloway) 500 184.9 390.4mm in 2014
Glasgow Bishopton 311.4 145.6 294.8mm in 2006
Capel Curig (Conwy) 1012.2 308.9 612.8mm in 2006

This very unsettled and occasionally stormy spell was well signalled in our recent three month outlooks and is not unusual for this time of year, indeed this is when climatologically we would expect to have most of our storms.

Throughout this unsettled spell Met Office meteorologists and advisors are working round the clock with our partners to keep everyone up to date with the latest forecast information so they can plan and prepare for the expected weather.





December on track to be the mildest on record

24 12 2015

Mowing the lawn has been the reality for some so far this December, with unseasonably high temperatures. It looks as though the UK is on track to break the record for the warmest December since records began in 1910 and some areas have also seen their wettest.

The latest temperatures for December (1st to 22nd) reveal that the month so far has been far warmer than normal. Early provisional figures* reveal that the mean temperature for December in the UK has so far has been 8.1C, which is 4.2C above the long-term average for the month and well above the previous record of 6.9C set in 1934.

The December figure for England has so far been 9.5C, that’s 5.1C above the same long-term average and 2C above the record of 7.5C set in 1934, and the other UK nations have been similarly warm:

  • the mean temperature of 9.3C in Wales, higher than the previous post-1910 record of 7.5C set in 1934, and 4.8C above average
  • the mean temperature of 5.6°C in Scotland is 2.8C above average, but is so far slightly lower than the previous December record of 5.8C set in 1988
  • the mean temperature of 7.5°C in Northern Ireland is 3C higher than average, and marginally higher than the 1988 December record

Tim Legg of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre said: “With no sign of any significantly cold weather to come in the remaining 9 days of the month, we’re on track to break the warmest December record which was set back in 1934.”

Rainfall 1 - 22 Dec 2015

Rainfall 1 – 22 Dec 2015

MeanTemperature Dec 1 - 22, 2015

MeanTemperature Dec 1 – 22, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rainfall and sunshine figures so far confirm December has been dull and wet across most of the UK, with sunshine well down on the long-term average while precipitation (which of course has fallen mainly as rain) has been well above.  Some places have seen record breaking rainfall:

  • Cumberland 310.9mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 248.2mm 2006),
  • Westmorland 474.4mm 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 365.1mm 2006)
  • Dumfriesshire 314mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 307.5mm 2013)
  • Carnarvonshire 441.3mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 376.6mm 1965)
  • Roxburghshire 237.8mm rainfall 1 – 22nd Dec (previous record 219.7mm 2013)

 

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-22 Dec 2015 Act Anom Act Anom   Act Anom
  Deg C Deg C hours % mm %
UK 8.1 4.2 17.7 43 148.0 123
England 9.5 5.1 19.8 42 86.5 99
Wales 9.3 4.8 16.3 39 237.1 143
Scotland 5.6 2.8 14.1 46 229.1 140
N Ireland 7.5 3.0 20.7 56 130.4 114

 

You can find out what the rest of the year has been like on our climate pages.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.





Mild start to December

16 12 2015

Looking at figures dating back to 1960 this has been the mildest start to December for Wales (8.7C), south west England (9.8C) and south east England (10C), and the 4th warmest for the UK as a whole (7.1C), with 1979, 2000 and 2006 being marginally milder.

Early provisional figures* (1-14 December) show the first half of December has been very mild across England and Wales with the maximum daily temperatures 3.2C above average for the UK as a whole.

However there has been a sharp north-south contrast at times with much colder air over Scotland and some frosts.  Elsewhere the humid south-westerly airflow means the weather has remained similar to last month: cloudy with very few clear nights, mild nights and very little sunshine for most areas.

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

Mean Temperature 1 -14 December 2015

 

The main talking point so far this month has been Storm Desmond, bringing record-breaking rainfall totals over the Lake District and a lot of rain over many northern areas.

Around 200% of the whole month’s normal rainfall has already fallen in a few places in the Pennines and the Lake District, it has also been wet in Snowdonia and parts of southern & central Scotland.  There has been near-normal rainfall across many other areas, and actually below average, for this point in the month, in parts of southern England.

EARLY mean temperature sunshine duration precipitation
1-14 Dec 2015 Act deg C Anom deg C   Act Hours Anom %   Act mm Anom %  
Regions            
UK 7.1 3.2 13.4 33 100.2 83
England 8.6 4.3 15.7 33 56.7 65
Wales 8.7 4.2 11.0 26 140.9 85
Scotland 4.2 1.4 10.4 34 161.6 99
N Ireland 6.1 1.6 13.1 35 99.0 87

 

Despite the mild start to winter following on from a mild autumn, it looks like 2015 will be an average year as far as weather is concerned.

This year’s damp and cool spring and summer mean that despite the current mild spell, the rainfall, temperature and sunshine statistics for the year as a whole are all hovering around average, with just 17 days left until the end of the year.

Indications are that the unsettled weather will continue through Christmas and into the new year. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected across all parts, with the heaviest and most persistent rain in the north and west, and the best of the drier conditions across south-east England.

We can expect gales at times, again especially in the north and west. Temperatures will be closer to average than of late, but still generally above, with any snowfall restricted to the high ground of Scotland and northern England.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.





Did climate change have an impact on Storm Desmond?

7 12 2015

The exceptional rainfall in Cumbria over the past few days saw the fall of numerous records and has led many to ask whether it is linked to climate change. The records are based on digitised data going back to the 19th Century.

A gauge at Honister Pass recorded 341.4mm of rainfall in the 24-hours up to 1800 GMT on 5 December 2015, making for a new UK record for any 24-hour period. This beat the previous record of 316.4mm set in November 2009 at Seathwaite, also in Cumbria. A new 48-hour record (from 0900 to 0900 hrs) was also set, when 405mm was recorded at Thirlmere in Cumbria in just 38 hrs.

The weekend’s record rainfall was associated with a persistent, south-westerly flow bringing a ‘river of moisture’ from as far away as the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Ocean temperatures in the West Atlantic are currently well above normal and may well have contributed to the very high levels of moisture in the air masses which unleashed rainfall on the Cumbrian fells.

Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist, says “It’s too early to say definitively whether climate change has made a contribution to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors.

“However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems, suggests there may be a link between climate change and record-breaking winter rainfall. Last month, we published a paper showing that for the same weather pattern, an extended period of extreme UK winter rainfall is now seven times more likely than in a world without human emissions of greenhouse gases.”





Warm November on course to equal record in England

27 11 2015

UPDATE – 3 December 2015 – Provisonal full month stats show that November 2015 was the dullest on record

Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.

Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).

The other UK nations have been similarly warm

  • the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
  • the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
  • the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007

Apart from a short but marked cold spell on 21- 23 November there has been an absence of frosts in almost all areas, largely because of a humid, cloudy south-westerly airflow. This has also meant that most areas have seen very little sunshine. Most areas have had typical rainfall amounts for the time of year, but north-west Wales, north-west England and Southern Scotland have had well above average totals. There have also been a number of very windy episodes, including the impact of storms Abigail and Barney.

Of particular note was the temperature of 22.4°C recorded at Trawsgoed in Wales on 1 November and a remarkable overnight temperature of 16.1°C at Murlough in Northern Ireland on 9-10 November.

1-25 Nov mean temperature anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov mean temperature anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov rainfall anomaly 1981-2010

1-25 Nov rainfall anomaly 1981-2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parts of southern and central Scotland, the Lake District, Pennines and Snowdonia have had over 150% of their whole-month rainfall average. North-east Scotland and parts of southern and eastern England have had slightly less than would be expected up to this point in the month. South-west Scotland has already had enough rain to make this the 5th wettest November for that region in a series since 1910.

Sunshine has been well below normal with just 33 hours of sunshine up to the 25th across the UK. This means November 2015 is heading toward being the dullest on records going back to 1929 – the dullest currently being 1962 with 39 hours.

1-25 Nov
2015*
Mean temp (°C ) Sunshine (hrs) Rainfall (mm)
Actual Diff from
81-10 avg
Actual % of
81-10 avg
Actual % of
81-10 avg
UK 8.4 2.2 33 58 136.4 113
England 9.5 2.6 34 53 93.3 106
Wales 9.2 2.4 33 58 197.4 122
Scotland 6.6 1.6 31 68 192.9 116
N Ireland 8 1.5 37 68 127.2 113

You can find out what the rest of the year has been like on our climate pages.

*Data from the Met Office’s UK digitised records dating back to 1910.

Please note that these provisional figures, especially for rainfall and sunshine, are subject to revision. Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1981-2010 averaging period.





Late Season Hurricane Sandra Heading for Mexico

27 11 2015

The North Pacific Ocean has seen exceptional levels of tropical cyclone activity this season as reported in this blog over the last few months. By the end of November it is usual to see the season drawing to a close in most parts of the northern hemisphere. However, the unusual conditions in the eastern North Pacific due to the ongoing El Niño has resulted in a couple of late season tropical cyclones.

Tropical Storm Rick was relatively weak, but has been immediately followed by Sandra which rapidly strengthened into a category 4 hurricane with winds near 145 mph and a central pressure of 935 mb. The last time a hurricane formed so late in the season in the eastern North Pacific was back in 1983 when Hurricane Winnie developed in December. However, Sandra is much stronger than Winnie and has become the strongest hurricane on record to have formed in the region so late in the season.

It is barely a month since Hurricane Patricia came ashore over Mexico as a category 5 hurricane producing a narrow swathe of severe damage to mostly rural areas, but avoiding major cities. Sandra is forecast to make landfall on Saturday, but unlike Patricia is expected to rapidly weaken as it approaches the coast. Thus severe impacts from wind are not expected, although the storm could still produce a lot of heavy rain as it comes ashore. If Sandra crosses the coast as a tropical storm it will be the latest in the year that a landfall has ever been recorded over Mexico.

Hurricane Sandra at 1445 UTC on 26 November 2015 Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Sandra at 1445 UTC on 26 November 2015
Image courtesy of US Naval Research Laboratory

Hurricane Sandra has added to an already exceptionally active tropical cyclone season seen across the northern hemisphere (particularly the Pacific Ocean). This high activity is primarily as a result of the strong El Niño which has existed for the last few months. This has raised sea surface temperatures well above normal in parts of the Pacific Ocean and also made atmospheric conditions conducive to development of frequent and strong tropical cyclones.

Across the northern hemisphere as a whole there have now been 26 tropical cyclones which have attained category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (one-minute averaged winds of 130 mph or more). This is eight more than the previous record set in 2004. In the eastern North Pacific (east of the Dateline) there have been 10 hurricanes reaching this intensity which is two more than the previous record set in 1997. It must be noted that records relate to the era of reliable satellite data coverage from the 1960s and 1970s onwards.

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are produced by the US National Hurricane Center. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.





Windy this weekend, but Storm Clodagh looks unlikely

26 11 2015

UPDATE : Saturday 28 November 2015 – Met Eireann names Storm Clodagh

Original post: Thursday 26 November 2015 –

This weekend the UK will see some unsettled, windy weather and the Met Office have issued a yellow be aware National Severe Weather Warning for wind for parts of the UK. However, we have not named the next storm despite some articles in the press suggesting this is the case.

There are a series of low pressure systems affecting the UK this weekend and we’ll continue to keep an eye on these developing systems. You can keep up to date with the latest on our forecast pages.

Pressure chart for Saturday 28 November 2015 at midday

Pressure chart for Saturday 28 November 2015 at midday

The next few days are looking unsettled:

Friday: windy with a band of heavy rain moving southeastwards, clearing to sunshine and showers. Turning cold following the rain with wintry showers over hills in the north, but with snow reaching increasingly to lower levels in the north overnight.

Saturday: chilly to start with some frost and a risk of icy patches, then an unsettled, windy day with showers or longer spells of rain, the showers wintry over the higher ground of Scotland. Gales will develop, particularly along coasts exposed to the west or southwesterly winds where they could be locally severe, though this is not unusual for this time of year.

Sunday: it will remain windy and further showers are expected. A spell of rain looks likely to push across northern parts during the day, followed by further showers, increasingly falling as snow to low levels in Scotland, mostly in the north. Gales are likely, especially in the west, with severe gales along western coasts. Temperatures around average in the south, a little below in the north and feeling cold in the wind.

Next week looks to bring further unsettled weather, as low pressure continues to control the UK’s weather. It will however turn milder for a time.





Brief cold snap this weekend

20 11 2015

It will turn cold as we head into the weekend, courtesy of an arctic maritime airmass spreading across the country from the north. Yellow ‘be aware’ National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for a risk of impacts as a result of both snow and wind. Keep up to date with the weather for your area using our forecast pages.

Cold air spreading southwards during Friday will result in showers turning to snow over high ground in the north of the UK and increasingly to lower levels towards Friday evening as an area of rain, sleet and snow moves southwards. Northern and eastern Scotland and perhaps the northeast of England could see accumulations of 1-4cm in places at low levels, whereas above around 150m 5-10cm could accumulate.

Other areas of the UK could see some snow Friday night into Saturday as the band of rain, sleet and snow transfers southwards with perhaps some small amounts of settling snow over high ground.

The combination of rain, sleet and snow and dropping temperatures will also lead to a risk of ice in places, particularly over high level routes on Saturday morning.

Strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds are also likely Friday night and Saturday which will enhance the cold feel in what will be the coldest air of the season so far. There is a risk of severe gales with gusts of 60-70mph for a time in the most exposed locations over higher routes and along the east and west coasts of the UK.

On Saturday, wintry showers will become confined to parts of Scotland and to eastern and western coastal counties with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. It will feel cold in marked contrast to the recent mild weather and the second mildest start to November on record. Maximum temperatures by day will be 3-7 degrees Celsius but the wind will make it feel much colder. Overnight, minimum temperatures are likely to drop below freezing away from coasts, to give widespread frosts, with the risk of some icy patches where showers have fallen during the day.

Sat Feel 20th Sat Temps 20th

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chief Operational Meteorologist Frank Saunders said: “The Met Office is forecasting strong winds and some snow for this weekend which means there is the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and possible disruption to transport. With this in mind, if you have travel plans over the weekend, we’d advise that you keep an eye on the forecast and warnings for your area.”

Although this will be the first widespread cold spell of the season, it is fairly typical for mid-late November and it’s not unusual to see snow to lower levels in the north of the UK in late autumn. In recent years the most notable snow event was in late November 2010 when there was lying snow across parts of northern and eastern Britain.

This cold spell will be fairly short-lived with temperatures expected to return to more typical values for the time of year early next week with the weather remaining unsettled.





Turning colder for this weekend

18 11 2015

Cold weather is expected this weekend courtesy of an arctic maritime airmass spreading across the country from the north. Everyone will notice a change in the weather after the second mildest start to November on record.

On Friday the cold air will begin to spread southwards with showers falling as snow over high ground in the north and increasingly to lower levels here later. Across northern and eastern Scotland and the northeast of England accumulations of 1-4cm are likely in places at low levels, whereas above around 150m around 5-10cm could accumulate. Furthermore, overnight Friday and into Saturday other areas of the UK could see snow, with some accumulations possible, mainly over high ground.

Strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds are also likely Friday night and Saturday across central and southern Britain and will enhance the cold feel in what will be the coldest air of the season so far. There is a risk of severe gales with gusts of 60-70mph in the most exposed locations.

Yellow ‘be aware’ National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for the risk of impacts as a result of the snow and wind.

Pressure chart for midnight Saturday 21 November 2015

By Saturday the cold air will be in place across all parts of the UK with a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers likely over the rest of the weekend, with any settling only likely to be temporary because the ground is so warm after the recent mild spell. However, many places inland will avoid the showers and see some good sunny spells. To see what weather you can expect in your area, check out our forecast pages.

In a stark contrast to recent days when temperatures have been well above average for the time of year, we can expect temperatures to be below average with maximum daytime values of around 3-7 degrees Celsius. Overnight minimum temperatures are likely to drop below freezing away from coasts, to give a widespread frost, with the risk of some icy patches where showers have fallen during the day.

TodVSwkend2

Chief Operational Meteorlogist Frank Saunders said: “With strong winds and some snow forecast for this weekend there is the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and disruption to transport. There remains some uncertainty regarding the strength of the wind and snow amounts and so if you have travel plans over the weekend we’d advise that you keep an eye on the warnings for your area.”

Although this will be the first widespread cold spell of the season, it is fairly typical for mid-late November and it’s not unusual to see snow to lower levels in the north of the UK in late autumn. In recent years the most notable snow event was in late November 2010 when there was lying snow across parts of northern and eastern Britain.

This cold spell will be fairly short-lived with temperatures expected to return to more typical values for the time of year early next week with the weather remaining unsettled.








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