Highest temperatures and rainfall over the weekend

23 08 2015

Over the past 24 hours the weather has delivered a mixture of hot sunshine, thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain as we highlighted earlier in the week.

As expected, sunny skies and warm air being pushed northwards from the continent allowed temperatures to climb across central and eastern parts of the UK, reaching maximums in the high 20s and low 30s on Saturday with a humid feel:

Table showing Maximum temperatures for Saturday 22 August 2015

Location Maximum Temperature in C
Gravesend 30.9
Kew Gardens 30.9
Heathrow 30.7
St James’s Park 30.7
Northolt 30.6

These high temperatures set off two areas of thunderstorms, one over central southern England and another over the Midlands, moving into northern England. These storms caused localised surface water flooding and flooding of some properties in North Yorkshire as up to 30mm of rain fell in an hour. There were also impacts to the York-Leeds rail line.

Across the northwest of the UK it was fresher and mainly dry with some sunshine, while the areas in between were rather cloudy with some rain.

Overnight, the heavy, thundery downpours continued to move northwards, while heavy rain also spread into western parts of the UK. By this morning at 10am the rainfall totals for the 24 hours were as follows:

Table showing rainfall totals for the 24 hours up until 10am on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Bramham 62.6
Ryhill 54.6
Tredegar 40.6
Linton-on-Ouse 39.8
Scolton Country Park 36.8

During today, the heavy rain has continued to spread north and eastwards with a mixture of sunny spells and heavy showers following across the south. Ahead of this, temperatures across eastern England have again peaked in the mid to high 20s.

Table showing rainfall totals bwtween 10am and 4pm on Sunday 23 August 2015

Location Rainfall in mm
Hereford 20.8
Llanbrynmair 20.4
Sarn 17.8
Lake Vyrnwy 17.2
Porthmadog 17.2

The changeable weather will continue as we head into next week. Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued and everyone is encouraged to keep up to date with forecasts and warnings over the next few days and to make plans accordingly.

Possible record heat in Spain, while heavy rain and snow affect the Alps

13 05 2015

Parts of Spain, Portugal and southern France are experiencing unusually high temperatures at the moment. On Tuesday, Seville recorded 38C, and today will be another very hot day for the time of year, with temperatures widely expected to reach the low to mid 30s Celsius.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

The hottest conditions will be across the Andalucía region of southern Spain. If temperatures reach or exceed 40C in Seville today this will be a new May record. Cooler conditions will gradually spread from the north tomorrow, although another very hot day is likely in southern Spain. Temperatures are then expected to return closer to average in all regions by Friday.

Meanwhile, southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and northern Italy are at risk of heavy rainfall over the coming days, with heavy snow possible on Friday across the Alps. Up to 150mm of rain could fall within 48 hours, possibly leading to flash flooding and landslides in this mountainous region of Europe, as well as increasing the avalanche risk due to fresh snowfall.

Whilst neither of these two weather events in Europe will affect the UK, we are expecting some heavy rain of our own on Thursday. The band of rain will move across southwest England during the early hours and edge slowly northeastwards through the day, but become almost stationary across parts of Wales, central-southern and southeast England. However, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain largely dry and fine.

Active tropical storm season in the Northwest Pacific as another typhoon heads for the Philippines

7 05 2015

Typhoon Noul is currently to the east of the Philippines in the Northwest Pacific, and is heading steadily west-northwest. Noul is expected to continue moving towards the Philippines whilst intensifying further to a very strong typhoon. The storm is expected to make landfall in the Philippines this weekend.

Noul pacific sat pic

There is still some uncertainty in the exact track, but currently Noul looks likely to make landfall on the east coast of Luzon, bringing very strong winds with gusts of 130kt (150mph), coastal and inland flooding with total rainfall accumulations of up to 400mm possible, and potential landslides across large parts of northern Luzon. There is also a risk of significant impacts in Manila if Noul takes a slightly more southerly track.

Track from Japan Meteorological Agency

Track from Japan Meteorological Agency

Although the typhoon is expected to weaken next week, Noul could also bring some heavy rain to parts of Japan.

This is the sixth tropical storm of the north-west Pacific season and the fourth to become a typhoon, which is an unusual level of activity so early in the season. And yet another tropical storm looks set to develop behind Noul, possibly following a similar path.

The Met Office works closely with counterparts at the Philippines weather service PAGASA, providing the latest information on computer model predictions of the likely track and intensity of Typhoon Noul as it nears the country.

Official warnings of west Pacific tropical storms are produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance.

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

Intense storm threatens Sydney

22 04 2015

Parts of New South Wales in southeast Australia have had severe flooding and wind damage over the past few days due to an intense low pressure system. Parts of the region have already seen more than 300mm (around a foot) of rainfall. Areas around Sydney have been affected, with flooding claiming three lives and causing evacuations of properties, as well as disrupting power and transport. Officials warned that hundreds of homes in the city are under threat from rising river levels, and it has been reported that the State Emergency Service (SES) have received nearly 10,000 calls for help and carried out more than 100 rescues.

Analysis chart from Austrlian Bureau of Meteorology

Analysis chart from Austrlian Bureau of Meteorology

The storm is now weakening and moving away southeastwards into the Tasman Sea, so conditions are expected to improve over the next 24 hours, however remnants of the system are likely to bring a further 50 to 75mm of rainfall to some coastal parts today, before conditions gradually become quieter.

Rapid Response image from NASA

Rapid Response image from NASA

For more information on current warnings and forecasts across New South Wales, visit the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website.

Two cyclones to hit Australia

19 02 2015

Whilst here in the UK, we are coming towards the end of our winter season, Australia is coming towards the end of summer, but is in the middle of its cyclone season, and unusually there are currently two tropical cyclones affecting the country.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is currently to the north of Australia’s Northern Territory, in the Arafura Sea. The storm is expected to make landfall on Thursday as a category 4 storm, between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak. Huge rainfall figures are forecast, with 300 to 600mm daily, potentially adding up to more than 800mm in places throughout the storm event, with flooding likely inland, as well as coastal flooding and damaging winds. Residents close to the coast have been advised to be ready to move to shelter with emergency kit. However, as the area is not densely populated, significant impacts are not expected. The nearest large population centre is Darwin, and although it is likely that there will be some wet and windy weather here, it is not expected to be anything that Darwinians aren’t used to.

Credit: Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Credit: Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Storm track and warning areas for Tropical Cyclone Lam

Storm track and warning areas for Tropical Cyclone Lam

Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia is heading towards the Queensland coast, and is expected to make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone on Thursday night as an extremely powerful category 5 storm. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are forecasting Marcia to track inland for a while and quickly weaken, before turning parallel with the coast, which keeps the main risk area to the north of Brisbane. However, there is some uncertainty with the exact track of the storm, and if it were to remain closer to the coast, Brisbane could be in line for a significant amount of rainfall, potentially as much as 400mm. Destructive winds are likely around the coast and abnormally high tides will be experienced with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year. Dangerous storm tides are forecast as the cyclone crosses the coast, as well as treacherous surf on exposed beaches.

Credit: Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Credit: Courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Storm track and warning areas for Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Storm track and warning areas for Tropical Cyclone Marcia

Met Office StormTracker provides a mapped picture of tropical cyclones around the globe with access to track history and six-day forecast tracks for current tropical cyclones from the Met Office global forecast model and latest observed cloud cover and sea surface temperature. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

One year on – A look back to last winter

17 02 2015

This weekend marked the one-year anniversary of the Valentine’s Day storm, which also marked the end of a particularly stormy three-month period. A new review article – ‘From months to minutes – exploring the value of high-resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/2014’ – written by 16 Met Office co-authors reviews the accuracy of our forecasting and warning of severe weather during winter 2013-14, and assesses its performance.

The paper concludes that the “prolonged period of high impact weather experienced in the United Kingdom during the winter of 2013/14 was very well forecast by the operational tools available across space and time scales.”

Here Huw Lewis, the paper’s lead author, and Derrick Ryall, Head of the Public Weather Service, look at the extreme weather last year and the role of the Met Office in communicating severe weather through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Analysis chart 1200 GMT 26 January 2014

Winter 2013/2014 in the United Kingdom was remarkable. The country was battered by at least 12 major winter storms over a three month period and was officially assessed as the stormiest period that the United Kingdom has experienced for at least 20 years.

The series of storms resulted in the wettest winter in almost 250 years (according to the England and Wales precipitation series from 1766), significantly wetter than the previous wettest winter in 1914/1915.

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

Snapshot of UK rain radar surface rainfall rate for 2200 GMT on 23 December 2013

The extreme weather caused widespread flooding throughout Southern England and coastal damage – most notably in the South West and Norfolk coasts. The impact of the severe winter storms on individuals, businesses and the government were substantial, including several fatalities, widespread power cuts and damaged infrastructure.

Recent advances in forecasting, technology and the scientific developments in meteorology have been considerable. These developments and improvements in accuracy mean that a four-day weather forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was just thirty years ago. During the course of last winter, the Met Office was able to use these forecasts to warn of any severe weather well in advance. In the case of the St Jude’s Day storm at the end of October 2013 warnings went out to the Government and the public five days before the storm even existed.


As the accuracy of weather forecasts has evolved, so has the communication of the potential impacts of severe weather. The National Severe Weather Warning Service enables more ‘weather decisions’ which in turn help to minimise the consequences of severe weather. The Met Office was at the heart of the government response to the storms, providing advice on weather impacts through the National Severe Weather Warning Service and Civil Contingency Advisors. The Met Office also worked very closely with both the national and regional media, who in turn played a key role in ensuring that the public were fully informed about the potential impacts of any up-coming weather.

In addition to the Public Weather Service, commercial partners and customers were also provided with detailed updates throughout the period in order for them to plan effectively for logistical issues. Together, these advanced warnings helped authorities, businesses and individuals to be better prepared to take mitigating actions.

Driving further improvements in accuracy and therefore reducing the lead time and increasing the detail of severe weather warnings is one of the Met Office’s key priorities . The ultimate aim is to improve the potential for users to plan preventative measures for severe weather events much further ahead. Underpinning all of these developments is a continuing programme of scientific research and access to enhanced supercomputing over the next few years.

Has there been a recent increase in UK weather records?

17 12 2014

There have been a striking number of temperature and rainfall records broken in recent years, according to an analysis by the Met Office which is published in the journal Weather.

The paper examines whether recent decades have seen an unusually high number of records broken in the UK. It looks at the number of records over time in the UK national statistics compiled by the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre (NCIC).

Records were collated from long-running national and regional series of monthly, seasonal and annual temperature, rainfall, and sunshine.

The analysis counts records by decade and weights them according to their relative importance. More weight is given to national records compared to regions, and more weight to annual records compared to individual months.

The UK’s climate shows a large variability and this is bound to also be reflected in weather records. Even so, the analysis does reveal some interesting patterns.

Temperature records:

  • Since 2000, there have been 10 times as many hot records as cold records.
  • Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for two-thirds of all hot records in a national series from 1910, but only 3% of cold-records.
  • The longer Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods.
  • The increase in hot records and decrease in cold records seen in recent decades is consistent with the long-term climate change signal. Seven of the warmest years in the UK series from 1910 have occurred since 2000.

Rainfall records:

  • Since 2000 there have been almost 10 times as many wet records as dry records.
  • Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for 45% of all wet records in a national series from 1910, but only 2% of dry records.
  • Remarkably, period since 2010 accounts for more wet records than any other decade – even though this only a 5 year period. The most prominent wet records in this period were winter 2013/2014 and April, June and year 2012.
  • The longer England & Wales Precipitation (EWP) series, which dates back to 1766, shows a similar trend – with six out of a possible 17 records set since 2000, but no record dry periods.
  • The large number of recent wet records may be indicative of trends in underlying rainfall patterns. We would expect an increase in heavy rainfall with climate change and this is an area of active research within the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Sunshine records:

  • In contrast with the other measures, there are no clear trends apparent in the sunshine records.

Exactly why we have seen these records is an ongoing area of research. You can see some discussion points related to this theme in a Met Office research paper on the drivers and impacts of our seasonal weather.

You can explore the Met Office’s climate data for the UK on our climate pages.

Untangling the global drivers of UK winter weather

25 11 2014

As we head towards the start of winter, which starts for meteorologists on 1 December, there’s always a great deal of media and public speculation about what weather we might have in store.

To answer that question, we need to look beyond the UK. The worlds’ weather is interconnected, and there are certain large scale global drivers which we know have influences on UK weather at this time of year – so what are these doing at the moment?

El Niño, which sees unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific and can increase the risk of cold winter conditions in the UK, has been much discussed after initial signs of development earlier this year.

Its progress has been slow, however, and while there remains a good chance of a weak event by the end of the year it is also possible that El Niño conditions will remain neutral. In any case, this factor is not expected to be strong enough to exert much influence on weather patterns in Europe during the next three months.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) describes differences in the usual pressure patterns over the North Atlantic – with positive and negative phases.

A positive phase is thought more likely than a negative one on average over the next three months. This is characterised by enhancement of the westerly winds across the Atlantic which, during winter, brings above-average temperatures and rainfall to Western Europe.

As we head later into winter, confidence about the heightened likelihood of positive NAO reduces – suggesting chances of drier and colder conditions return closer to normal.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) sees high level (stratospheric) winds over the equator change from westerly to easterly phases – and it’s currently in the latter of the two.

In winter months this can lead to a greater incidence of high pressure blocking patterns over the northern hemisphere, which would increase the probability of colder and drier weather across Europe. Essentially this is providing an opposite signal to the NAO.

There are other factors to consider too. For example, Arctic sea ice extent is slightly below average but as yet it is not clear whether this might have an impact on weather patterns in the UK.

No single one of these drivers will determine the UK’s winter on its own – instead they all interact together to govern the weather trends we can expect over the coming months.

Disentangling these different influences remains a challenging area of science which the Met Office is improving all the time, but detailed and highly certain UK outlooks are not possible over these timescales.

The Met Office’s long-range outlooks give probabilities based on scenarios of being considerably wetter or drier, colder or milder than usual.

Currently the outlook for December 2014 to February 2015 suggests that milder and wetter than average winter conditions are slightly more likely than other outcomes. However, compared to day-to-day weather forecasts, the probabilities are much more finely balanced – for example, the outlook gives a 1 in 4 chance of the mildest scenario and a 1 in 10 chance of the coldest scenario. These numbers suggest it would be a mistake to interpret the outlook for a very mild outcome as ‘highly likely’; likewise very cold conditions cannot be ruled out.

The outlook gives similar probabilities for precipitation (rain, hail, sleet and snow), with the chances of the wettest scenario being 1 in 4 and the chances of the driest around 1 in 10.

These three month outlooks cover a whole three month period, taking into account both day and night, as well as the whole of the UK. This means that even in the event of, say, an overall mild winter we could still see spells of cold or very cold weather.

With this in mind, what exactly we’ll see for the winter ahead remains uncertain. In terms of strong winds, heavy rainfall, cold snaps or even snow, while longer-range outlooks can give us general tendencies, the details can only be predicted by our day-to-day weather forecasts.

The Met Office’s accuracy over all timescales is world-leading, however, so you can trust that we’ll keep everyone up-to-date with all the latest information on the weather whatever the winter has in store.

Thunderstorms bring intense rainfall to parts of England

28 07 2014

This morning has seen some intense downpours across parts of south east England.

They developed across parts of East Anglia in the early hours of the morning, with further areas of heavy showers across Sussex, Surrey, Kent and the south of London following later.

The showers were very heavy in places with thunderstorms, hail, and torrential rain reported, giving high rainfall totals and localised flooding in some areas.

The high rainfall totals were caused by an area of low pressure and a plume of warm air that moved in from the near continent accompanied by light winds, meaning that the showers were slow moving.

Several spots have seen more than half of their average monthly rainfall for the whole of July in just one hour.

Below you can see some of the highest recorded hourly rainfall totals from Environment Agency rain gauges through the morning of Monday 28th July 2014:

Great Dunmow Essex 43 mm (4am to 5am)
Isfield Sussex 37 mm (8.30am to 9:30am)
Ardingly Sussex 35 mm (8.30am to 9:30am)
Santon Downham Suffolk 33mm (4am to 5am)
Weirwood Sussex 28 mm (9am to 10am)
Northolt London 20mm (7am to 8am)


The band of showery rain is now easing, but a yellow warning for rainfall remains in place for the south east of the UK as the risk of seeing some further isolated downpours remains.

In addition, the far south east of England could see further persistent and perhaps locally heavy rain later today and overnight, with parts of Kent and Sussex most at risk. Conditions across all areas should then improve through tomorrow.

Lightning strikes and heavy rain over the weekend

21 07 2014

Parts of the UK saw some very heavy downpours over the weekend, as thunderstorms caused disruption in some regions.

Westonbirt in Gloucestershire saw the most rain with 79mm over the weekend, more than its July full-month average of 59.3mm. Within that total, 34.2mm fell in just an hour Saturday afternoon – with some localised flash flooding as a result.

A rain gauge at Norwich airport saw the highest hourly-rainfall total, with 45.8mm falling between 3pm and 4pm on Sunday – this is close to its full month July average of 50.4mm.

Numerous other spots saw some high rainfall totals, particularly in eastern areas. Below you can see some of the highest recorded hourly and overall rainfall totals from the weekend.

It’s possible that some locations not included in the list saw heavy rain, but thundery downpours can be very localised – sometimes just a few hundred metres across.

This means that they can miss our rain gauge network, but you can explore rainfall totals from our Weather Observations Website (WOW) which has information supplied by observers all over the UK.

As we forecast on Friday, some locations avoided the storms altogether and saw prolonged fine weather over the weekend.

Nick Grahame, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “The ‘Spanish Plume’ event we were forecasting led to some very intense thunderstorms over the weekend, with hourly and overall rainfall totals in line with our expectations.

“As we’d been highlighting in our forecasts, these storms can be very localised and that means some places avoided the storms altogether and saw a good deal of fine weather. It really highlights how events such as this can see some places with fairly severe impacts, while other places – sometimes quite nearby – can see no impacts at all.”

48-Hour Rainfall Totals from 2100HRS on 18 July to 2100HRS on 20 July 2014:


Highest hourly rainfall totals from the weekend:

20/07/2014 15:00 NORWICH AIRPORT NORFOLK 45.8
20/07/2014 17:00 MONKS WOOD CAMBRIDGESHIRE 22.8
19/07/2014 06:00 LIBANUS POWYS 15

This video shows the storms and lightning strikes as they developed over Spain and France and moved north across the UK.

In total the UK are saw 62,277 lightning strikes between 9am on Thursday 17 July and 9am on Monday 21 July 2014


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