Air Quality Forecast

17 03 2015

Localised areas of Greater London are currently recording Moderate to High levels of air pollution. More widely across Eastern parts of the UK, Moderate levels of pollution are also being recorded. Due to the current weather conditions these levels are likely to remain Moderate to High in certain areas for the next 24 hours.

Although these conditions are going to be short-lived, and while the great majority of people will not be affected by short-term peaks in air pollution, some individuals, such as those with existing heart or lung conditions, may experience increased symptoms. Those vulnerable members of the public can find further information on health advice here.

The Met Office is working very closely with Defra and Public Health England to ensure they have the most up-to-date and accurate air quality forecasts in order to provide relevant advice to the public.

Current Weather Conditions

Throughout today and into tomorrow high pressure will continue to draw in air and pollutants from the continent which adds to the pollution building up in urban areas.

High pressure is also currently sitting to the East of the UK bringing us calm and settled weather allowing pollutants to become trapped close to the ground.

How long will it last?

From tomorrow morning the high pressure will move westwards across the UK and start to bring cleaner air from the North and North East Europe, which will start to disperse pollution. By the end of Thursday pollution levels across the UK should return to Low values.





A very sunny winter on the cards

18 02 2015

Early figures show that while this winter is on track for fairly average temperatures and rainfall, it could be among the sunniest in our UK record dating back to 1929.

If we have average sunshine for the rest of February, it’s likely to be in the top few sunniest winters and could potentially beat the 2001 record of 189 hours.

Between 1 Dec -16 Feb many areas have already received more than their long-term average winter sunshine for the full season (1 Dec – 28 Feb), especially parts of the Midlands, eastern Scotland and north-east England.

December and January were both sunny across much of the country – especially eastern areas, while northern England and eastern Scotland have had a sunny February so far.

As we near the end of winter it looks as though temperatures will be close to the long-term average with December warmer than average, January near average and February so far being just below.

For many it has been a dry winter so far across southern, eastern and north-east England but relatively wet across Scotland, with the north-west having a wet December and January.

Dry start to February

The first half of February has seen some dry settled weather thanks to high pressure dominating the weather for much of the period.

Using figures from 1-16 February, temperatures have generally been around 1 to 1.5 °C below normal across the UK as a whole and clear skies have allowed fog and frosty conditions to develop at times.

Many areas have been on the dry side, with less than 20 percent of expected rainfall so far across large swathes of the country – we’d normally expect around half of the monthly average to have fallen by now.

Sunshine amounts have been variable but parts of northern England and eastern Scotland have already received almost the whole-month average.

 





A wet and sunny January, but very average for temperature

4 02 2015

January 2015 saw above-average amounts of sunshine and rainfall right across the UK, but with temperatures averaging out to near-normal.

The first half of the month was largely unsettled, with mild, wet and windy weather interspersed with colder and drier spells.

From mid month, the colder conditions turned more persistent, with snow in places and some extensive snowfalls across the Scottish mountains.

This change of weather type led to some large temperature variations through the month, with a high of 16.5C at Exeter Airport on the 9th and a low of -13.7C at Loch Glascarnoch on the 19th.

Even though Loch Glascarnoch is in the Scottish Highlands and so is prone to very low temperatures in the winter, this was the lowest temperature recorded across the UK since 2012.

Rainfall amounts were above average across the UK, especially so in Scotland where it was the 4th wettest January in the series since 1910.

Shetland was particularly wet with Lerwick recording over twice the average rainfall; it was the wettest January here in a 100-year series.

Conversely, sunshine amounts were also above average. Nottingham, Waddington and Dyce each recorded their sunniest January in over 60 years of records.

Across the UK, it was the fifth sunniest January since 1910, with 60 hours of sunshine (compared to an average of 47 hours).

January 2015 sunshine anomaly compared to the 1981-2010 average

January 2015 sunshine duration as a percentage of the 1981-2010 average

Despite the cold end to the month, temperatures for the month as a whole were very close to average, with a mean temperature of 3.7C across the UK (just 0.1C above the 1981-2010 average).

Here are the weather extremes that we saw across the UK throughout January 2015:

You can find out more about the weather in January 2015 on the climate pages of our website.





Driest start to September in over 50 years

17 09 2014

The first half of September has been exceptionally dry across much of the UK and temperatures for many areas have also been well above average, according to provisional Met Office statistics.

Figures up to 15th September show there has been 6.7 mm of rain across the UK, which is just 7% of the September average of 96mm. We would normally expect about half of the average monthly rainfall to have fallen by this point in the month.

This makes it the driest first half of September for the UK in available records back to 1960. It’s also the driest start to September for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but not for England – 1997 and 2003 were drier.

Map showing actual rainfall across the UK from 1-15 September. All parts of the UK have been drier than average.

Map showing actual rainfall across the UK from 1-15 September. All parts of the UK have been drier than average.

Looking at individual countries, Wales has been the driest with less than 1mm of rain up to the 15th. Northern Ireland is just ahead, with 1.2mm of rain. England has seen 4.1mm and Scotland has seen 13.5mm.

The UK mean temperature so far has been 13.9C, which is 1.3C above the full-month average.

Day-time maximums have been particularly high, with an UK average of 18.4C which is 1.9C above the average, while night-time minimums have been closer to average at 9.6C – which is 0.7C above average.

To complete the picture of generally fine weather for the first half of this September, sunshine has also been slightly above normal with 70.8 hours for the UK – about 57% of the full-month average.

These figures have come about after a prolonged spell of settled and fine weather, dominated by high pressure sitting over the UK. This has blocked the usual low pressure systems that move in from the west and bring unsettled conditions to the UK. Instead we have seen very little rain, generally warm conditions, and slightly above average levels of sunshine.

While these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. A few days of wet or cold weather could drastically alter the statistics, so we’ll have to wait for the full-month figures before making any judgements.

Whilst the rest of this week should be dry and warm for many areas, some sharp showers may develop in places, particularly through Thursday and Friday.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall
1-15 September
Actual (°C)
Diff from Avg Actual (hours)
% of Avg* Actual (mm)
% of Avg*
UK 13.9 1.3 70.8 57 6.7 7
England 14.8 1.1 76.5 56 4.1 6
Wales 13.8 1.0 90.8 71 0.6 1
Scotland 12.6 1.7 57.1 54 13.5 10
N Ireland 13.2 0.8 63.2 56 1.2 1

*We would normally expect about 50% of the average by this point in the month.





July makes eight warm months in a row

1 08 2014

This July was the eighth month in a row which has seen warmer than average temperatures for the UK. It was both sunnier and warmer than average, but not as much as July last year, according to provisional full-month statistics from the Met Office.

Figures for the whole month show that the UK mean temperature was 16.3C, which is 1.2C above the long term (1981-2010) average.

This ranks it as the 8th warmest July in our national records, joint with 1933. It’s worth noting that last July was warmer (17.0C, ranked 3rd), and this year is well short of the record warmest July of 2006 (17.8C).

Sunshine hours for the UK totalled 228.7 hours, which makes this the 6th sunniest July in records from 1929 – but, again, it’s not as sunny as last year’s July (248.7 hours, ranked 3rd), and is well off the record set in 1955 of 256.0 hours.

Rainfall was also below average, with this month’s UK total of 64.1 mm making 82% of the ‘normal’ amount we’d expect for the month. It was the driest July since 2006, marginally drier than last July, but there are many drier Julys in the records.

The rainfall patterns have been variable, with some parts of the country, such as the South West of England and west Wales, being much drier than average while others, such as parts of the South East, being much wetter.

Much of the rain has been from intense thundery downpours. On 20th July, Norwich Airport recorded 45.8mm in one hour, three-quarters of the ‘normal’ amount for the whole month.

Here are some other top weather facts from this July:

  • Highest temperature: 32.3C at Gravesend, Kent on the 18th
  • Lowest temperature: 1.2C at Braemar, Aberdeenshire on the 6th
  • Wettest day (midnight to midnight): 46mm at Northolt, Greater London on the 28th
  • Sunniest day: 16.1 hours at Glasgow, on the 9th
  • Strongest gust: 58mph at Warcop, Cumbria on the 18th

You can explore figures and statistics about the UK climate, including our national records dating back to 1910, on our climate pages.

The table below shows the provisional full month figures for July:

  Temperature (C) Sunshine (hours) Rainfall (mm)
July Provisional Actual Diff from avg Actual % of avg Actual % of avg
UK 16.3 1.2 228.7 133 64.1 82
England 17.6 1.3 251.1 130 53.1 85
Wales 16.2 1.0 238.6 133 53.7 58
Scotland 14.4 1.2 200.0 142 85.4 86
N Ireland 15.7 1.1 166.0 118 61.1 75




July 2014 in top ten warmest and sunniest

30 07 2014

This July is set to finish amongst the top ten warmest and sunniest in records dating back to 1910, according to early Met Office statistics.

Figures from the 1st to the 28th of the month show temperatures are slightly higher than normal, with a UK mean of 16.3C which is 1.2C above the 1981-2010 average.

If the month were to finish like that, it would be the joint 8th warmest in the record dating back to 1910 – but is well short of the record-breaking 17.8C set in 2006.

UK map showing hours of sunshine from 1-28 July 2014 compared to the full-month 1981-2010 average.

UK map showing hours of sunshine from 1-28 July 2014 compared to the full-month 1981-2010 average.

Sunshine hours for the UK are well above average, with 210 hours so far – which is 122% of the average we’d expect for the whole month. This means it is currently ranked as the joint 10th sunniest July in the record, and it’s likely to climb higher once the final few days of the month are included.

However, this July is unlikely to break the record of 256 hours of sunshine set in 1955.

Rainfall has been below average for the UK – but not by a record-breaking amount. The UK has seen about 59mm so far, which is 76% of the full month average – you’d normally expect about 90% at this stage.

That means this month currently ranks as the 29th driest July on record – and it’s likely to move closer to the mid-table due to any rain in the final few days of the month.

South west England and southern parts of Wales have seen the least rain compared to usual, with 42.6mm for the region making up just 53% of the full-month average.

  Mean temperature Sunshine
Rainfall
1-28 July Actual (celsius) Diff from avg Actual (hrs) % of avg Actual (mm) % of avg
UK 16.3 1.2 210 122 59 76
England 17.6 1.3 228.1 118 51.7 83
Wales 16.2 1 219.4 123 47.9 52
Scotland 14.4 1.2 187.3 133 75.1 75
N Ireland 15.7 1.1 152.5 109 53.4 66




Guest blog: ‘Risk of summer drought at normal levels’

17 06 2014

There have been some reports in the press that the Met Office has warned dry weather this June could bring a return of drought conditions to the UK – this is not the case. Here Victoria Williams, Water Resources Advisor at the Environment Agency, explains what the real risks are at the moment:

Every week we measure water resources in England to assess how dry the soils are and how much rain they can soak up, the amount of water flowing in rivers, stored below ground in aquifers and above ground in reservoirs, and the outlook for the coming months.

As we move into summer the overall water resources situation across England is looking generally healthy. This is not surprising given England has experienced the wettest six month period (Dec-May) on record.

Regionally it has also been a record breaker with the wettest six months experienced in southeast and southwest England and the second wettest in central and northwest England.

All our rivers have responded to the rainfall and are currently within normal ranges.  Groundwater levels throughout England are within normal ranges and are now starting to recede as expected for the time of year.

We also look ahead by modelling how rivers and groundwaters may respond to different future rainfall patterns over the summer. The results shows a broadly positive picture even if rainfall is below average and point to the risk of drought this summer being no greater than average.

However it is still as important as ever to use water wisely. If the weather does turn hot and dry there can be localised impacts on rivers, the environment and for farming. If this happens we work with abstractors to reduce the effects where possible and water companies will keep their customers informed if needed.

For more information see the Environment Agency water situation reports.





Stats reveal so-so September

2 10 2013

Provisional Met Office statistics show September has been fairly average for the UK, with lower than average rainfall being the only notable feature.

The UK mean temperature for the month was 12.8C, which is just 0.1C above the long-term (1981-2010) average. It’s the same story with maximum and minimum temperatures, which at 16.6C and 8.9C respectively, are both 0.1C above the long-term average.

September UK rainfall as a % of 1981-2010 average

September UK rainfall as a % of 1981-2010 average

There were 115.8 hours of sunshine in the UK during the month which adds up to 93% of the long term average – again, fairly normal. However, there were some big regional differences. Sunshine amounts were below normal in the west and south, but near or above normal in the north and east. For south Wales and south-west England this was provisionally the dullest September since 1994.

When it comes to rainfall, it has been a drier than average month for the UK. There was 70.7mm of rain during September, which is 73% of the long-term average. Parts of Wales, eastern England and Scotland had less than half the normal amount. For Scotland overall this was provisionally the driest September since 2003.

The drier than average September continues a theme for 2013 as a whole, with every month this year apart from May registering below average rainfall.

You can explore Met Office statistics on our UK Climate pages.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
September Actual Diff to Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 12.8 0.1 115.8 93 70.7 73
England 13.7 0.0 126.1 92 54.5 78
Wales 13.1 0.3 104.0 81 79.6 68
Scotland 11.2 0.3 104.9 100 95.1 70
N Ireland 12.7 0.3 98.1 86 69.3 76




July finishes in top three sunniest and warmest

2 08 2013

Met Office figures show that, with a mean temperature of 17 °C, July 2013 was the third warmest in the national record going back to 1910, behind 2006 (17.8 °C) and 1983 (17.3 °C).

This July’s heatwave was more notable for its duration than its intensity, although it is not particularly unusual in a historical context. The last year in which 30 °C was not recorded at any station was in 1993. However, this July stands out in contrast to the run of unsettled summers from 2007 to 2012, and was the most significant UK heatwave since July 2006.

Through the month we saw high pressure sitting over the UK bringing a prolonged period of high temperatures between Saturday 6 July and Thursday 24 July, when a maximum of 28 °C was recorded at one or more locations on each of those 19 days.

The last time the UK saw such a long period of hot weather was August 1997 which also had a 19- day run of high temperatures. The highest temperature for July 2013 was recorded jointly at Heathrow and Northolt on 22 July (33.5 °C). (Although this high temperature has already been surpassed in August, with 34.1 °C recorded at Heathrow on 1 August.

July 2006 still stands as the hottest month on record in the UK with a mean temperature of 17.8 °C and also saw the record July temperature of 36.5 °C at Wisley (19 July 2006).

The heatwave broke on 22 July with thunder and some very heavy downpours. The wettest day in July was in Cumbria, when 79.8mm of rain fell at Carlisle on 28 July (97.4 mm on a 48 hour rainfall total between 0900 GMT 27 July to GMT 29 July 2013).

Looking at the individual countries, the hottest day in Scotland was on 20 July (30.5 °C) at Glenlee, with Castlederg in Northern Ireland and Porthmadog in Wales recording their highest temperatures on 19 July (30.1 °C and 31.4 °C respectively). England’s hottest day was also the aforementioned UK’s hottest day (33.5 °C on 22 July Heathrow and Northolt).

July’s UK rainfall total was 64mm, with Scotland receiving near normal levels at 83.1 mm and the whole of England drier than average at 52.3 mm (but with Northern England registering above average rainfall with 75.8 mm and Southern England below average at 39.8 mm). Wales (58.0 mm) and Northern Ireland (78.2 mm) were slightly drier than average.

Statistics:

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall  
July Actual Diff from Avg Actual % of Avg Actual % of Avg
  degC degC hours % mm %
UK 17.0 1.9 250.7 145 64.1 82
England 18.1 1.8 274.1 142 52.3 83
Wales 17.2 2.0 288.9 161 58.0 63
Scotland 15.2 1.9 205.8 146 83.1 84
N Ireland 17.0 2.4 227.3 162 78.2 96




April drier and colder than average

2 05 2013

After the wettest April on record in 2012, provisional full-month Met Office figures show this April has been slightly drier than average in the UK.

Rainfall throughout the UK was 64 mm this year, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 72.7 mm. That’s considerably less than the 128 mm we saw last year.

There were big regional differences in April rainfall this year. Scotland saw 121.2 mm of rain which is above the 91.1 mm average and Northern Ireland saw 75.2mm, almost spot on the 75.0 mm average.

However, both England and Wales saw well below average rainfall. Wales had 50.3mm, compared to an average of 89.3mm, and England saw 30.4mm, compared to an average of 58.7 mm.

The month was characterised by generally cold and dry weather, following on from the theme set in March. Despite this, April registered as only slightly colder than average with a mean UK temperature of 6.3 °C, which is 1.1 °C below the 7.4 °C long-term average.

This is the same mean temperature as recorded in April 2012. To find a colder April than the last two years, you have to go back to 1989 – which saw a mean temperature of 5.5 °C.

Scotland saw the coldest temperatures compared to country specific averages, with a mean temperature of 4.8 °C, which is 1.3 °C below average – and is the same temperature as recorded in 1998.

The warmest day of the month was 25 April at Faversham in Kent when the temperature recorded was 23.1°C.

In terms of sunshine, Scotland was sunnier than the rest of the UK with hours of sunshine totalling 170.9, followed by Northern Ireland with 168.0, England at 167.7 and Wales at 162.7 hours.

This compares with only 127.9 hours of sunshine in April last year throughout the UK. The sunniest April in the last 10 years was 2007 with 203.5 hours.

Mean Temperature Sunshine hours Rainfall
Apr-13 Actual Diff to Avg Actual Diff to Avg Actual Diff to Avg
degC degC hours % mm %
UK 6.3 -1.1 168.4 114 64 88
England 7.2 -0.9 167.7 108 30.4 52
Wales 6.4 -1.2 162.7 105 50.3 56
Scotland 4.8 -1.3 170.9 127 121.2 133
N Ireland 6.5 -1.1 168 115 75.2 100







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