Unsettled weather to come – but no repeat of ‘St Jude’ in sight

29 10 2013

There have been a few mentions in today’s media of another storm coming in for this weekend – with the Daily Express suggesting that a ‘new deadly storm’ is on the way.

It’s fair to say we are expecting a spell of unsettled autumnal weather over the next week, with some strong winds and heavy rain possible – but comparisons with the ‘St Jude’s Day storm’ (as some in the media have called it) are wide of the mark.

Currently forecasts suggest that we will see several low pressure systems affecting the country over the next week – which is a fairly typical picture for UK weather at this time of year.

These could bring gale force winds at times to some areas, but we don’t expect gusts to be anything like the exceptionally strong winds we saw on Monday. In fact, the winds are more likely to be similar to those we saw during the day last Sunday – the day before the big storm.

Of course, even gale force gusts do bring some risks and the Met Office will closely watch developments to assess any impacts.

The low pressure systems coming through over the next week are likely to lead to some rough seas and big waves around some coasts, as well as some heavy rain.

The Met Office, Environment Agency and Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) will be working together to monitor the risk of any impacts from these over the next few days.

Given the outlook for unsettled weather, we’d advise people to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office and to sign up to receive free flood warnings from the Environment Agency and SEPA website.



3 responses

29 10 2013
Philip Leather

If it wasn’t for those idiots at the Daily Express, what would the Met Office find to do?

29 10 2013
Dr Chris Nankervis (@cjnankervis)

Dear Met Office forecast team,

The “Fawkes Storm” period could be one of the biggest British storm periods in history. Severe gales are currently expected from 3rd to 5th November combined with heavy rains. It is not possible to say that these are less severe than St Jude’s Day at this stage. Scotland is likely to take a good battering on Sunday 3rd with a close succession of stormy weather packing in on a strong Polar Maritime air flow. The high winds at this early forecast stage are anticipated to cause most trouble over exposed Western counties, Wales, parts of the Southern countries and Republic of Ireland.

I’ve been closely monitoring this stormy scenario for a few days now and it is not just a mild “spell of autumnal weather”.

The American Global Forecast System (GFS) model has laid out clear scientific evidence of this upcoming stormy period. As a member of the public I’m expecting clear UK-wide Met Office warnings for high winds and rain by mid-week. I respect however, that it is too early to speculate too much about precise details in terms of position, timing and intensity. We don’t want another amber alert for high winds in the Midlands when we have a light breeze, such as for the Met Office response to the St Jude’s Day event.

Dr Christopher Nankervis
PhD Atmospheric Sciences

30 10 2013
John Benton

Well at least you have stuck your neck above the parapet with your forecast. We will see soon if you are right.


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